Seeing [[CLNE]] down, while natty is taking a dirt nap, reminds me how cruel Mother Market is. What a fucking bitch/whore.
That stock, mind you, should be sprinting higher, on the back of T. Boone Pickens’ pitch to congress and lower natural gas prices. However, due to the capitulation in commodity related names today, anything and everything with the word “energy” in it is being clubbed like a retarded seal.
It is, without doubt, a buying opportunity.
Look, I was lucky enough to dodge the knifing action in [[RIG]], but not lucky enough to avoid other losses. Still, I endure painful “paper losses” in [[SKF]], [[SRS]] and [[FXP]]. Nonetheless, like the hard headed creature I am, I continue to buy more.
My losses from top to now are just short of 20%, putting my year to date returns around 37%.
The agony.
On the long side, I own [[WB]], [[LAZ]], [[JOE]], [[FMCN]], [[BAP]], CLNE, [[CLX]], [[MVIS]], [[HD]], [[SBUX]], [[GD]], [[LMT]], [[HANS]], [[PCZ]] and [[NOV]].
Basically, seeing the market run, I forced myself to just buy shit. I had to.
Having a heavy shot bias, I deemed being so one sided to be fucktarded. So, I hedged some of my shorts, with a variety of longs.
As for the banks, the proprietary iBC software spit out a variety of names yesterday, including [[FED]], [[UMPQ]], [[STI]] and [[MBI]]. Under normal conditions, many banks are still significantly undervalued, trading less than book value. However, I cannot get myself into the mind set of going long now, with exception to WB.
If you lost some coin during this squeeze, do not fret. Things are not always as they seem. Soon enough, “The Fly” will be pistol hot again, enabling you (internet leech) to bank a little coin, allowing you to, once again, feed your family a few tacos with sour cream.
Off to throw some surplus firecrackers at people.
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I told you The Fly was mexican!
“enabling you to feed your family a few tacos with sour cream”
make that 330lbs…..you fat fuck!
Up “only” 37 percent. I’d be quite happy with that myself.
Interesting that you own SBUX.
Headless Man= Bigot.
Who doesn’t like tacos?
I like big men, there’s more to love. But yes, he’s a bigot who doesn’t know who he’s messing with here.
did u cover?
I’m not a big fan of tacos. I could never get past the “crunchy crust” part of it.
That said, I love bean and cheese burritos (the more extravagant the cheese the better), and fajitas are one of my wife’s “specialty dishes” (along w. a chicken parmigian that would blow your mind).
My kids — all of them, even the baby — are freaks for burritos. They could live on that and nothing else. Oddly, they also like tacos. I guess it was not a 100% gene transfer, poor things.
__
I covered all of my shorts, with exception of HRB and my etf’s
“The Fly” likes hairy tacos!!!!
I’m long HRB.
May the best fucktard win.
This is the last large load of crap that was left to pull by the Central Committee of Banking and Five Year Planning in Congress. MInute Maid had that post about the free market being gone, which is sadly true. I feared this and I knew that they would nationalize the pigs. HOwever, the reaction was delayed by a day and a half, and I waded back in. Basically the market is dead, however they will keep currencies floating a little longer to keep up appearances. The destruction of our debts is now being told in the bond pits. The ten year is marching up. It has to. This will pull the bull’s dick out in a paroxism of gore. There is no cheap tricks left to save it. The dollars is sitting at a 3 month high on its funding currency, the yen. It is sitting at a one month high on the chf. The dollar is dead, the yen and the chf are huge surplus currencies. So is the cad. That is why the bearded chairrat is holding his money in cad. Something is very deeply wrong with that. If the trading floor was not overpopulated by tweakers used to being fed from the tit, they would be in a justified panic. If the chairrat has his money in cad, and you are investing here..
Hola, toda personas. Me llamo “El Fly”. Yo vivo en California. Me gusta comida especial tacos y carne esada. Mi madre y yo es muy gorda.
adios,
The Fly
P.S You nessicito dinero.
long HANS? That thing reaks of shit… it reminds me of CROX.
I continue to double down on SKF, no way does that financial rally sustain itself… too much, too fast.
F*ck China too. Long FXP.
Tacos rule.
Lots of haters around today. Not necessarily a problem, but none of them seem to be very good at “the writing thing.”
But like I was saying, tacos rule.
WFR is taking a “homo boat” ride to shit cove
Its funny to watch the permabull haters come out in force after Fly…reminds me of the days of yore when Fly would mess with Tim Knight.
My question to him: Is HRB out of the clear because they were able to sell Option Arm to Wilbur Ross? Do they still have exposure? I am short from right around here
his response: they did not sell option one They sold the servicing. All of the liability for fraud. whit elie fraud early payment default and gorss lender negligence still fall on hrb. Since jan 2004, they funded $128 billion. They are done.
You all need to get yourselves a man-sized burrito from CMG.
Wood:
You’re fired.
The fact that Mr. Mortgage is regularly spamming the Yahoo HRB message board made me go long HRB.
That and the fact that it is ready to bust out to new highs.
In my opinion, when one is spamming yahoo message boards, all credibility is lost, and he becomes no different from any pump and dump clown.
I’ll wait until he panics, and covers at 52 week highs to take my profits.
Federally underwritten BAC buyback is going to further fuck SKF.
lol…
Anyone know what is up with QCOM? They postponed their earnings call to tomorrow 8am and the stock shot up 10% AH……
AMERICAN CITIZENS ARE TERRORISTS
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,328967,00.html?sPage=fnc/us/waronterror
OFF TO YOUR FEMA CAMPS BOYZ
Shed, in my opinion, HRB is just more skilled at hiding their crap under a layer of wrapping paper tied with ribbons and bows. My opinion has nothing to do with Mr. Mortgage either way, but my understanding is the same as his, that HRB sold the servicing only. If you think about who goes to HRB to do their taxes, and the subset of those customers who wanted a mortgage from HRB, I’d be concerned how well they’re going to do. Plus, if you don’t make a lot of money because the economy sucks, it’s cheaper to buy one of the tax software packages from Office Depot and print your own 1040 than to go to HRB.
I have no position long or short in HRB, just a plethora of opinions about it.
Anton rocks BTW.
This will pull the bull’s dick out in a paroxism of gore.
Al Gore?
Calvin, tomorrow Bern Nackers will propose in a dialogue to Congress, that for the good of the country, rising interest rates must now actually confer a premium to the stock market rather than a discount.
Afterwards, I expect that Countrywide’s pet Senator, Chris Dodd, will then propose legislation along these lines, shepherd it through both Houses, and after some mulish hand-wringing, Bush will reluctantly agree to sign the new bill.
The market will go to 15,000 in a trice.
I think they need a good “marketing name” for the legislation to get it some “exposure” on CNBS… perhaps “The Occidental Sunrise Bill?”
___
Jake:
How long is a trice?
The official song of the 2008 Olympics. Fucking Priceless… http://black20.com/shorts/please-ignore-communism
Zen — “no time at all.”
________
Boca takes on the Skiffles shorts:
_______
Gunners, that shit’s good enough for an “Embed” —
Boca,
I’m taken with your thorough analysis and cogent commentary.
Do you cam?
Gunners- A+
Boca, I don’t know shit from shinola about HRB’s business. I trade the technicals, as you know. I’m not worried about where HRB will be 3 months from now. I’m looking shorter than that.
It seems to me, if Mr. Mortgage is so certain about his HRB short, then why is he running around like a headless chicken? Me think he doth protest too much.
Now, if I’m Mr. Mortgage, and I’m running around crazy trying to convince any fucktard who will listen that HRB is going to zero, then I’m thinking that Mr. Mortgage is near panic. What’s the chances that there are others, just like him, perhaps the very same ones who he has convinced, to get short?
HRB is very sound, from a technical perspective. The chart is darlin’, to quote my kinfolk. If it breaks out further from here, to new highs, I’m guessing that there will be some panic covering.
If not, I’m stopped out, and Mr. Mortgage can throw sand in my eyes.
hahaha no Anton I’m big on privacy. Points for a nice try though 🙂
Jake, that made me chuckle, me plus a sword would have been dangerous today. Ahhh, if only I was as athletic as Uma Thurman.
“anything and everything with the word “energy” in it is being clubbed like a retarded seal.”
LMAO – jeez, you’re evil – love it. 1+
“H&R Block adds Wood to board”
http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/kansascity/stories/2008/07/07/daily10.html?ana=yfcpc
Shed, I suspect that Mr. Mortgage doesn’t do anything half way. So either he believes passionately that it’s dangerous to stay in this stock, or he’s talking his book. You and Mr. Mortgage are probably at two different ends of the bell curve as far as trading styles and personality. Each position has merit, and all the different viewpoints is what makes a market work.
Oh that H&R Block article is uber funny!
Good, Boca. That was a test. A girl can’t be too careful.
Besides, my parole won’t allow it.
i just tried to post that video in the PG, but couldn’t get it to embed. someone else feel free to try. wordpress has changed since i quit the blogosphere
“Somebody” forwarded this newsletter to me. My current trading portfolio has been, is being and will continue to be shredded if all the assertions contained herein “play out.”
There are some charts with squiggly lines on them so I might post this on Woody’s “Lucky Astrology Feng Shui Math Club” blog, too.
http://www.pring.com/pdfs/ptgletter.pdf
jesus – the cnbc bank pump is in full throttle.
buy WB. it’s probably going to double from here, if cnbc keeps pumping it like this.
‘hey, everybody, the world has solved all its problems this week. buy anything that doesn’t involve oil or gas!’
can i interest anyone in some tulip bulbs?
Where’d all the shmoes come from? I have to work for the first time since getting my new gig and when I come back the place looks like crap…bigots, haters, missspelllers [sic].
BOOMER – someone left the cages open.
I think the 12 year olds are out of school right now, Boomer.
The Market has punched off my eyebrows, ripped off my 3 balled jawbreaker filled nutsack and assraped me with a 2 X 4. Off to regroup.
pull down your pants and buy a bank.
c’mon – everybody’s doin it!
Fly:
Your biggest problem as a trader is that you don’t get out of the game after your winning streak ends. You are now going for lower probability trades, and thus, giving back a bunch of your profits. You’ve know a rally was on for a week, and the game changed, yet you didn’t step back t watch and understand the new rules. You keep on trading and losing. I have jumped on a lot of your ideas b/c it’s obvious when you are in rhythm. It’s also obvious that you are now out of rhythm. Great traders slow down when the tide is against them. I do agree with you on SRS SKF and FXP, though and have bought small initiative positions. I won’t buy more until they show a pattern of higher lows and higher highs.
Fubsy
I appreciate your candor.
Thanks Anton, good stuff.
Fubsy:
Everyone cools down.
I am very streaky. However, what you do not realize is the amount of cash I freed up by selling RIG. It was my largest position.
With the cash, I will be making incremental moves.
Watch and learn, again.
Cubs,
They do make some good points. But keep in mind the thing reads like a promo piece to me, as every newsletter is at some level.
And exclamation points in financial documents are about a half-step up from dotting each “i” with a smiley face on the credibility destruction scale.
Hope you found something that helps in the coin banking department.
The Fly,
“Everyone cools down.”
That assumes that everyone started out with a decent body temperature to begin with. Many of my “pals” — at least the honest ones — admit to being on a brain-freeze inducing cold streak this year frostier than Ted Williams’s head.
You’ve made a lot of good calls here. I didn’t follow you into RIG as I held, and am holding, NOV. But my “time horizon” may be longer than yours.
Still holding PBR and other oil, too, as I can’t believe we’re going to discover a secret hoard of magic carpets in Iraq or that the ChiComs are going back to carting each other around in rickshaws anytime soon.
But still tuning in to “watch and learn,” however, so thanks.
Anton, thanks for the link earlier.
If anyone thinks Fly is not a sublime professional in this game, you are an idiot.
Anton,
That article doesn’t address price inflation, or the amplification of worst case scenario models by the damage that may have already been done to our economy over the last month. In fact, when I read that their #2 reason for calling a bottom is “Bull markets always follow bear markets”, I almost stopped reading. There are things in motion right now that nobody can anticipate the fallout from, and the risk of being in the market is huge right now, and the lack of information is masking the magnitude of that risk. The banks have a much more solid idea of what is currently defaulting than anyone else, but from comments like J. Dimon (Who says that Prime defaults may triple from what was anticipated), it sounds like they are starting to consider that there are areas of debt that they didn’t expect to see delinquencies in (yet?). Thus, anyone who assigns a definitive bottom right now is grasping at straws. As such, average plebs need to be as market neutral/cash heavy as possible right now.
To review:
– We have never before had such a major crisis of confidence in the ratings agencies. Their job is to accurately asses the risk of loss, and assign a rating to that probability. They rated securities that were so complex that they didn’t have any history on which to base their assumptions. The loss of credibility is crippling the market. Trust/Credibility is the glue that holds the world together. When someone don’t know for sure whether to trust a propsective purchase, they rely on a 3rd party to recommend (a friend, an agency, references, etc). This is what the ratings agencies have done for decades, this is what makes the Ebay feedback system crucial to their business model. It is also why the world hasn’t questioned the Dollar for 60 years. When trust is broken, the system will remain broken until trust is restored.
– The government hasn’t had to back a major financial institution in crisis during ANY of our lifetimes, to my knowledge. This is egregious, possibly illegal, and in theory it dilutes the dollar. It takes credibility away from the fed and our currency – however if it was/is not done, we might be in a much worse situation today. Going forward, the fed will be limited in their ability to bail out institutions.
– Our economic strength is tied to our military strength insofar as .42c of every tax dollar goes towards the military. As the dollar weakens, and the tax base shrinks due to economic contraction, how are we going to maintain our global military campaigns. If we aren’t the toughest kid on the block (aside from nukes), it becomes a lot harder to throw our weight around.
– The derivatives market has never been this big. A $500 Trillion system of complex IOUs between financial institutions rests on a foundation of rapidly defaulting debt. During the credit crisis of the early 90’s, it was around 9 Trillion. Think of an inverted pyramid. This is why BSC failure would have been catastrophic, as they held up around 8% of this system of IOUs (from what I recall).
– The savings rate in America is flat. This is going to get worse as prices inflate, and people (with all that ‘money sloshing around on the sidelines’) are going to hoard $ in anticipation of worse times ahead. When the velocity of money slows down, demand falls, companies go out of business, and people baton down the hatches. What will increase the velocity of money? Growth. How do you grow? There must be demand, prices must not choke people out of markets, and there *MUST* be liquidity in the system.
$120/bbl oil has already done damage. Companies have already laid people off in anticipation of hard times ahead, with two quarters of high energy prices putting a thumbscrew on margins.
Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. The fact that the Financials staged a rally 2 business days after the 3rd largest bank failure in US history tells me that people aren’t educated as to the real risk in the system right now. It tells me that hopeless optimism persists, justified by “valuations,” history, and a blind eye to the storm that the world is in right now.
later, oil. nice knowing you.
Fly,
I’m surprised there is no speculation regarding the msft/yahoo saga from you or any of your clones. What do you think of the latest developments? I’m thinking of buying some Aug and Oct $30 calls. I smell an imminent buyout offer in the works, but I’d like to know your take on it. Are you hearing anything from any of your sources as of late? Also, are you now buying MVIS since the secondary is out of the way? I’m in eyeballs deep on that one. TIA – and good trading.
Fly:
I will continue to watch and learn. And, I do appreciate it!!
f
DSB,
Thanks. I posted the newsletter link because it espouses views that are, in many regards, 180 degrees from my own. And my own views have been, for the most part lately, 180 degrees from profitable.
So if I am the mine detector, and I keep “blowing the fuck up,” but not in the good way, then maybe these people are walking the profitable path.
Thank you for more fully illuminating the soft dark corners of their argument. I agree in particular with your point about derivatives. We have created a giant magnifying glass under which we are all ants at noon.
If it’s okay with you, I’d like to forward your comments to the authors and see if they can manufacture a response which resonates with impact beyond that which can be generated with a few exclamation points.
They seem to love the exclamation points.
Me?
Not so much!
Anton, feel free to forward. Thx for your input.