SIXTEEN FOR MY LAST SIXTEEN

Last two trading days has reignited a hot streak in me, one for you to both marvel and glare at with sheer disdain. While you sit there, uncomfortably, in your spiny chair attempting to day trade — blowing yourself up and out, Le Fly effortlessly scores monumental wins.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
——— TODAY’S FISH
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%

Do not attempt to learn how to trade, if you aren’t any good at it. By “good”, I mean — if you are able to make money doing it. Some will lie to you and say “KEEP AT IT, ATTA BOY — GET UP THERE AND STRIKE OUT A COUPLE HUNDRED TIMES BEFORE YOU GET A SINGLE.” I will not waste your time and offer delusions. You’re a doctor, a lawyer, a trashman, a homeless person. But you are NOT a trader. Stick to what you know and do best — get drunk and cavort with hookers. Leave the trading to the professionals, men who’ve been thru the caustic elements and STEELED themselves, forged by the fires of yesteryear and today. These are not ordinary times and you don’t go out trying to learn baseball by batting against Nolan Ryan in his prime. This is not the type of market amateurs and rookies should be playing in.

On a general note, I do not like the morning action. I sold a bunch of stuff — raising cash to 40%.

Eventful day in Wall Street today. We opened up like wildcats and tore bears to shreds. I booked EXTREME profits and then felt like a genius, so I delved back in and methodically bought throughout the day until I was ALL IN, once again, positioning for one more run. Just one more.

Times are hard and the global economy is being DEMOLISHED. People are at home waiting for their $1,200, sustaining on Ramen Noodles, bereft of papered towels and toilet paper. We are only assuaged by meaningless jargon, such as “FLATTENING THE CURVE” and/or “STIMULUS BILL.” All of this is meaningless shit and to be honest, people should be a lot angrier than scared. Government has mandated you to starve, destroyed your way of life and kept you under martial law for weeks under the auspices of safety. The truth is, the healthcare system was built poorly and designed for maximum profits, which is why they’re unable to sustain the pangs of this pandemic. As a result of poor planning, normies suffer and small businesses are going up in smoke FOREVER.

This might sound harsh, but I can guarantee you most business owners, if given the choice, would risk getting COVID-19 than face financial ruin. Men kill themselves for these sort of things and I don’t think this is done and I don’t think things will be normal for some time.

Having said that, I do require just 1 more day. Oil traded sharply lower — because America doesn’t want to partake in the OPEC + Russia oil cuts, no matter what the fucking Railroad Commissioner of Texas says. The Dow was +900 and closed slightly lower — just for the fucks and glory. Most of my positions are right around my basis, some up a little, some down. The point is, I need just 1 more day to cash in my chips and peacock out of this motherfucker like the champion that I am — Master Ace Stock Trader (M.A.S.T.), blogger extraordinaire. The chop was real, but so are these nuts.

No clue how long this will last — but the initial stages of the collapse appear to have ended. The Fed threw the kitchen sink at the market and it stuck. None of this means we’re out of the woods, far from it. But what it does mean is risk to the system completely ending is over. In its place, soon, will be DOWNSIDE surprises and a fucked up economic environment.

I bought a bunch of shit yesterday and sold it today.

The haul.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%

Also, I’m going to start allocating to the Quant again, but keep my retirement in cash. I’m bullish on the direction of the market now because price action demands it. My opinions about how all of this is possible it not relevant and only serves to conform me into a money losing ideologue. If I wanted to get ahead of the curve and short the market, I’d need to have some more recent gains under my big ass belt. For now, I am trend following, ripping out spines and crushing heads into dust.

Yesterday people offered condolences for having been HOOKED in a variety of triple inverse shorts. Today I cut off their fucking heads and used them as ashtrays for my victory cigars.

Any questions?

See pal, let me describe to you the type of person that I am.

I do not cry or give up or wait in cash like a fucking pussy in order to get my bearings straight. I take the hits like a fucking man and get right back out there with my machine gun and start killing shit again.

What did I do — you fucking asked? You have the nerve to interrupt, so I’ll just lay my nuts on the table now.

BAM!

sold $JWN +24.6%
$WW +16.4%
$ALLY +13.7%
$STWD +18.5%
$H +14%
$TREE +10.1%
$SQ +7.7%

That’s who I am — big dick swinging machine gun toting killing machine. I’d say I rose from the ashes like the Phoenix, but only pussies get reduced to fucking ashes. I am a Master Ace Trader (M.A.T) and there’s really nothing or no one that can stop me.

Will I take a well deserved nap, or perhaps ride my mountain bike around town, menacing people with my maskless face? Perhaps. But I’ll be back before long slapping my nuts right on the table again, believe you me.

News broke late this afternoon that the Fed would buy small business loans from banks. In other words, the treasury isn’t taking on debt for these bailouts, but instead making the Fed Brrrrrr with their printing presses and do the work for them. Also, late in the day, the mortgage services were pressing lawmakers to have the Fed fund them in order to service bond holders. See, people aren’t paying their mortgages, so instead of depending on the actual tenants to pay them — they want the Fed to give them the money. AND THEY WILL GET IT!

Why is this important? Because the treasury isn’t borrowing money to fund these facilities and instead using Fed funny money to do it — super inflationary. If this trend continues, the Fed will be the new defacto treasury, financing all of the governments projects with UNLIMITED printing press dollars. There has never been a more bullish case for gold.

The Dow lifted 1,640, Nasdaq more than 500. I closed out all of my shorts and went long with 95% of my account — caught upside in most of my intraday longs and will likely be selling them all very soon.

Stop complaining about how rigged everything is and blaming others for your fuckups. It is what it is — play the game and try to limit the losses while maximizing the gains. No one said this was an easy racket.

Surprisingly, this had zero effect on markets today.

BREAKING: British PM Johnson moved to ICU following coronavirus hospitalization. https://t.co/ogmYSSIM8z

— NBC News (@NBCNews) April 6, 2020

I lost the right to own these bastards. This is how I got HOOKED. I thought we were belting lower and here we are now, +1,200. I thought about this trade all day and even though I hated to realize hard losses, at a time when I am philosophically correct, it had to be done. Down 20% is terrible, but if I held and these dove lower, I’d be looking down the barrel of significant damage to my account.

The conclusion.

(DRIP -14.7%)
(TZA -14%)
(FAZ -20%)
(SOXS -22%)
(DRV -13.6%)

Entire damage to my account is 425bps. My ideas about DOUBLING DOWN were lunacy and never should’ve been entertained. I was HOOKED and had no choice but to sell.

My day wasn’t all horribles, I booked other trades, most at a profit.

AU +6.8%
INO +3.6%
SCL +8.9%
(IFRX -2.8%)

I also bought about half a dozen of so stocks — most of which have moved higher and had a healthy basket of OLD MAN stocks into today, which are mostly up led by the JELLY JAR $SJM.

There is no lesson to be learned here. This is trading. Sometimes you’re right, others times fucked. You just can’t let the fucked days run away and chase you out of the market.

In other news, Dave Portnoy is all in SHORT $BA — down $500k for the session.

I got fucked with my 3x inverse ETFs over the weekend. I have a fuckload of them now, 5 of them representing 25% of my account — because I am HOOKED. I have two choices, now that markets have run higher. And believe me, I’m not one of those FUCKHEADS who complains when markets go the other way. It’s al relative. I got caught and now I’m getting HOT ROLLED AND STEELED. Nothing wrong with it and absolutely nothing to be ashamed over. The question is, do I hold, sell, or DOUBLE DOWN?

If I DOUBLE DOWN, it’d have to be in one or two, not all 5 — that would be fucking nuts. If I hold, I’ll be waiting while to achieve my basis and that’s not a given, seeing the market is optimistic about this virus ending.

Sure, there will be a fuckload of issues getting back to the way it used to be — but markets don’t care about that. All it cares about is Fed money printing and resumption of normalcy. The central banks don’t give a fuck. They have unlimited money hacks and will throw money at everything in order to get their tax revenues back online.

Markets are +1,000, WTI is -6%, and gold is +2.8%. I had AU and sold it for a 6.8% gain, other than that I’ve box watched trying to figure out what I want to do.

I kind of regret not closing out my shorts on Friday. There appears to be a narrative shift taking place here. While it’s true, Britain’s PM Boris Johnson, once a flu bro, is now in the hospital due to 10 consecutive days of high fever, there is a trend in recent news events.

Infection rates, at least those being reported, in Spain, Italy, and NY have subsided a bit. Additionally, fuckers in Silicon Valley are preparing monstrous buyout funds.

Private equity firm Silver Lake Partners is preparing to seek at least $16 billion from investors for its sixth flagship buyout fund

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 5, 2020

On the other hand, oil is down 8% after the much advertised 10 million barrel per day cut by the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER seemingly fell flat on its fucking face because Putin hates their guts and wants shale producers to die. But I could see that railroad FUCKER talking shit again this week, so be on edge for that. The weather is improving and we’re entering week 3 of fuckery. Trump is antsy as fuck and wants to send people back to work. There is going to be an explosive rally at some point, which might decapitate plenty of shorts. It will last longer than people think and offer a false sense of hope and blanket of security. The truly bad news will come later, after companies report fucked numbers post crisis.

Nasdaq futs are +122 and anything can happen, literally anything. I am neither bullish nor bearish right now and feel that markets want higher, but should really go lower. My feelings, however, have nothing to do with it.

Two housekeeping notes here. I used to blog a lot more news items than I do now — because I push many of the relevant news items via my Twitter account. I find it to be more efficient. You can access my Twitter account here — or use our newswire, which is free, that also compiles some great breaking news accounts for finance.

Browsing thru the news this morning and afternoon a few things stood out.

1. Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to argue about crude prices and the meeting for Monday has been canceled with a tentative raincheck date scheduled for April 9th.

2. Credit markets continue to deteriorate, but credit agencies are not downgrading CDO and CLO tranches.

3. A fuckload of maturities are due in 2020. For $MET along, 16% of their debt needs to be rolled over.

4. Platts Analytics believe supply won’t be turned off to the degree necessary unless Brent goes to $10.

5. Lines of credit are being drawn down at a record pace, with $15b+ being drawn in recent weeks. Total revolvers amount of $200b, half of which are in the consumer discretionary sector.

6. There are massive shortages of medicine and medical equipment due to COVID-19.

7. The death rate isn’t decreasing and the ‘flattening of the curve’ isn’t here yet.

8. Goldman says the nation’s largest department stores have 1 month of cash left

And this you have to see for yourself.

PLEBS: STOP USING TOILET PAPER! pic.twitter.com/6OfnX24cQQ

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 4, 2020

Honestly, I don’t know what the hell is going on — but I do know none of this is good for business and share price valuations. At a minimum, even after we cure COVID-19 and business gets back to normal, there will be a reduction is business activity due to PTSD and margins will be strained, as businesses attempt to restart their engines.

The S&P is down 23% for the year. Is that enough? The tech heavy Nasdaq is only down 14% for the year — because business as usual in tech-land. No one thinks Apple can be stopped.

What is this fucking chart telling me? Did we break the downtrend or is this rally a suckers respite that will fail and revisit the lows? You know the “WE MUST RETEST THE LOWS” fags are going to be out in force come Monday — should markets drop again.

Markets will most likely soar once we start to see normalcy return and people will think everything is good, up until numbers showing permanent damage are disseminated. It’s going to be a very volatile market for at least another 6 months.

This is the type of tape built to burn everyone. Bulls are long because the Fed, resumption of growth post virus, and because they’re fucking morons. Bears will end up getting ensnared and bankrupted because they’ll overstay their welcome and lose the trade. There are 1,000 reasons to be bearish here — only 1 reason to be long.

REMINDER: The Fed lost 2008-2009, because stocks dropped dead -75% before recovering. It took years to recover and many never had the chance because they got wiped clean.

I will word my next thoughts carefully and without hyperbole.

There is significant credit issues persisting now and central banks are throwing everything they have at it. On the surface, this is incredibly bullish for asset prices — but the X factor is COVID-19. How long will it last? No one believes stats out of China — just 82k infected whilst America is running hot towards 300k. Please.

I don’t need to remind you but everything is closed. Everything is shut in. The psychological affects of this event will persist for years, or until there is a vaccine.

I am bullish on consumer staples and long stocks like K, CPB, GIS, CLX, and HAIN — all higher today — because your supermarket is the only place for discretionary spending now. As unemployment checks roll in and government stimulus and bailouts, spending at your local grocer will only exacerbate. Stocks like KMB and CLX command higher multiples now because growth is about to hockey stick.

Aside from that, I am short banks, commercial Re, semis, and small caps. Fuck the market.

Today’s closed out trades.

(FRO -27%)
JNUG +1.5%
NVAX +5.5% (day trade)
W +2.9% (day trade)
BAND +1.35% (day trade)

NOTE: WTI ran up 13% today, after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER MADE AN INCREDULOUS APPEARANCE ON CNBC, talking shit.