John McAfee Dead at 75

The DOJ is confirming Mcafee was found dead in his Spaniard cell, after they announced they’d extradite him today for tax violations. I am guessing suicide — but who knows. I thought he was interesting, a little crazy, and a little shady. His recent gambit was to escape the IRS and he also was talking extreme shit about the US govt and he was a huge supporter of the crypto movement.

RIP John.

Why power corrupts. pic.twitter.com/cwbKHcaQsd

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) June 17, 2020

And here is one of his classic cocktails, albeit insane, for all of you to try in his honor.

Mixology 102

The End of Quarantine drink.

And a typical McAfee rant about this "Ending" …

And 1.5 seconds of the "Real" John McAfee at the very end. pic.twitter.com/GT8g7sRlkN

— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) May 17, 2020

Very scared, but also greedy — I sashayed back into the tape with just 15% exposure. It’s a small enough allocation to control easily and also prevent a severe bogging, which is what I am most afraid of. It would be easier, of course, to just sit and wait for something cool to happen in 100% cash. But alas I am a greedy man and would like to store more greenbacks for no reason whatsoever. I don’t need the money, per se — but I in fact want it a great deal. I do not know why I want it — perhaps to buy something later on or maybe I’d like to die rich and have the money rot away in the accounts of my heirs after I am long gone — falling subject to debauchery and profligate spending for the sake of consumerism.

To help me store more money so that my heirs can waste it away when I am dead and buried, join Stocklabs now!

As for the market, looks good although breadth is weak sauce. All of the meme stocks are ok and there is lots of strength in Biden plays — faggy EV and solar stocks. I prefer to trade these stocks because it attracts a certain type of person I can easily outmatch and front run.

I booked gains today and stand before you +105bps to the good, scared to death to they’ll absconded from me in what looks like yet another rug pull in the making. It’s easy to lose money in a tape like this — low breadth nonsense — fucked.

At 60% breadth and murderholes popping up behind every corner, I think it’s safest to cower in the comforts of cash, looking at the market side-eye, secretly wishing for COLLAPSE while in this comfort. It is my belief, at some point this year, the market will dislocated and head lower in a substantial manner. However, the timing of all this is up for grabs and who knows what happens this afternoon.

For now, +5.6% MTD, +200% YTD — scared to death of giving any of it back.

The title of this post is mostly wishful thinking, rooted in historical precedent that my dry spells are in fact brief and sandwiched between long streaks of winning. Perhaps there will come a time when my fitness to perform is less than ideal — but judging by my returns the past 2 years — I have never been better attuned to the idiosyncrasies of the market.

I closed at session highs but off 137bps now just 25 bps down for the week. I will make it a point to place my best foot forward tomorrow.

You can try to mechanize your trading process best you can and believe me I try it all the time. But when it comes to intra day trading — mood is everything and your mood is dependent upon so many different inputs. The things you eat, drink, the amount of sleep, your concentration — all prime movers in trading. Sometimes I trade better when lax, not box watching and other times I trade best when I skip the 9:30am open all together and begin my day at 10:15am after the dust has settled.

We are in a hard market and it requires plenty of humbling — being able to look at something one minute and love it and then sell it the next because you’ve changed your mind. The worst trader is the person who is unable to trade without emotion. My worst spells always occurred when pressed, taking outsized risk to make up losses. Wrong. The best way to make up losses is to trade healthily and well and to do that — one must find a rhythm and be in tune with price action.

Markets have not been well for months, as evidenced by the narrow move higher in the broader indices. Similar to the narrative woven in 2014, we are seeing large cap move higher while everything else burns in hell. Breadth is a paltry 44% with the NASDAQ +60 today. The last time we had breadth above 80% was May 14th, more than a month ago.

But truly, markets have been correcting since February. My go to tell stocks is PLUG and you can clearly see it higher today by 12%, but still cut in half since February. That is the sort of market we’re in.

I will argue this market has been broken since GME short squeezed higher, which then spilled into other moronic “meme stocks.” The same thing in the crypto space. I recall vividly a warm day in Charleston, where I was partaking in my duties as a southern gentleman, when DOGE broke 10 cents. Ever since that happened, the entire crypto space has bee replete with a different brand of loser — the mountebank crossed with depraved rapist pervert.

The answer is simple: we must clean the market from its depravity by removing the money from the people who do stupid things. Make poor people poor again.

I was tempted to get long some oil just before this blog — but seeing I’m already down 2.5% for the session I chose to do nothing. I didn’t have a particular fancy, other than a macro allocation into oil. Seeing it nearing $75 WTI gave me the idea that frackers and marginal drillers would pounce higher. The truth is, the past 2 weeks I have been RACKED with losses — down 10% over the time period. Although I am still up more than 3% for the month, I feel like I’m down 30%.

On top of that, my crypto positions, which I never look at, are of course RACKED with losses as well, in spite of my basis on ETH being so low. Nevertheless, I am still adversely affected by this reversal of fortune. While it’s true, I intend to buy ETH and the blood for the next year or so during my monthly buys — it’s still dreadful to have watched my position shrink by more than half now. At this stage in the crypto collapse, I would not be surprised to see a 90% downside from top to bottom.

Back to my absurd trading:

I am 40% cash, down too much to take any more risk, and this market isn’t conducive to upwards momentum at the moment. One might believe me to paint a gloomy picture; but it’s probably just me — cold as ice — death to equities.

Developing.

I finally ended my losing streak — booking a gain of 1.1%, after a few solid trades in the oil patch. Today was all about squeezing the fucking life out of shorts in the oil patch, led by names like TRCH and GBR. I, myself, am long BRN and hope to preside over the heads of shorts once they roll off the bodies of whom they belong to.

I believe, rather emphatically, tomorrow will be a solid follow through day. Indices might not be up sharply, but I am betting for a move higher in the stuff that lagged behind today — such as tech.

Not much else to add. Shorts have been dispatched with a 600 point gain in the Dow right in their fucking face. We shall see if the bulls have it in them to follow though tomorrow.

On Friday Stocklabs flagged oversold for its 12 mo algo — a rare occurrence. It didn’t close there but it was there intra-day. It did however close on the 6 mo algo. We have different time frame algos that comport with different markets, all of the things you know intuitively we measure and document for posterities sake. Lo and behold — we are storming higher again and all of the feels are present. Breadth has improved from 66% to 77% since my last blog. Some of the low float stocks are gunning higher. The short squeeze plays are next.

Even still, I have been unable to snap my cold streak and now sit listlessly around the unch mark — treading carefully but placing some bold trades in some low brow stocks hoping they might ignite. All of the work you do, sifting through charts, networking, working endlessly to find the right stock, is mostly a waste of time, unless of course you’re in it for the long haul. No one could have predicted that TRCH would trade from 50 cents to $10. These moves are not normal and it’s not supposed to happen — but they do and will continue to occur as long as people feel like gambling.

Presently I am long a few low float stocks, namely BRN, PED, and VET — positioning for a move higher in crude. A move higher in crude lifts all boats and if your boat is small and light it can lift pretty high. The other side of that coin is disaster of course, your bow cracked asunder and the position destroyed. After last week’s 8% drawdown, the last thing I want is to draw down today on a +550 day in the Dow. At the moment, it appears I am unable to extricate myself from the mud — but I will continue to spin my wheels very fast until the trading stops.

For a +500 Dow day, +100 NASDAQ — this is a weak breadth session at just 66%. It means, and this goes without saying, most of you have down stocks — myself included. As a point in fact, my trading is down 33bps. I find myself only slightly succored by the eventful Quant portfolio being up 266bps — due to heavy positioning in banks. It is a grim day, however, for cryptos — as the TETHER FUD lays on a thick fresh layer of fear onto the “crypto community.” I think it’s fair to say, at this point of the collapse, that all of that excess is either washed away or in the process of permanent loss. There was once upon a time when DOGECOIN led to CUM ROCKETS being relevant and now everyone is going to jail. Any questions?

I offer you zero advice in cryptos other than to suggest, again, that if you’re going to diversify into the asset class — best to do it in the biggest ones — no matter how dreadful they might look now. The hot money trade is ostensibly over.

Over in stock land, I would expect a greater move in spec stocks tomorrow. Today is the bounce day where banks, large caps, and the commodity plays go up. Tomorrow is when the wall of doubt is breached and all of the shit stocks explode and cover the bears with its feces.

Greetings, I bring you wishes of good tidings from the comfort of my deck, whereupon I am smoking my estate pipe and drinking unsweetened black coffee and eagerly awaiting to consume meats. Like all other red blooded Americans on this day, I too celebrate the great many achievements of our true ruling class with both grace and the dignity of our kind: the patriarchy.

We have ruled upon this planet for as long as its been around, created all of the great many comforts you enjoy today, all the while fascinating people with inventive sporting achievements — both in game and in markets. We of course destroy one another for the slightest reasons and have made it a point to remain in conflict for as long as we rule. We have found that war and violence is the best tonic to advance society, whereby the weakness alleles in the genome are eliminated via acts of horror. Without it, dare I say, none of you would be reading this upon your cellular phone gadgets right now.

On Patriarchy Day, which of course is a global holiday, I enjoy to eat rare meats, smoke British tobacco from a pipe, and partake in a bit of alcohol consumption. Not too much, however, since being the primary bread winner of my large family, I am of course responsible for working tomorrow — for it is a Monday and men of my cloth and statute enjoy to practice being industrious.

Throughout the day, however, I will watch cinema featuring extreme conflict, perhaps segue into a documentary, and perhaps also read some Ernest Hemingway — in order to set myself right and properly celebrate life as a man — the greatest genetic gift a person could have — the strongest class, the brightest.

I’d blog more about this fine topic, but my bacon is nearly finished and I must summon my wife now to refill my 15oz mug with coffee. Do enjoy your day and count your blessings for never having to menstruate and also for being fortunate enough to pass your helix down to another generation in order to re-invigorate the patriarchy which we have all grown to love and admire for many millennia.