My Gambit Worked

I stepped into today a man of extreme risk, pomp, and certitude. I have since harvested my crops and stand before you a victorious man, up by 200bps for the session. If I had boasted to you about being up 2% several months ago, why, I might’ve slapped myself in the face for the offense. But nowadays +2% is a true achievement. In a land barren of good soil and crops, to have grown and eaten a head of corn or a plump tomato is in fact a delicacy and something to be celebrated.

I of course have gone to cash, save a giant position in CLOV and a TZA hedge, presently cowering in order to “lock in” and “preserve” my gains for the sake of the Calendar Gods. I must, as you know, produce grandiose gains on a monthly basis in order to achieve something in line with collecting more US currency, just for the sake of the avocation.

I don’t have a strong opinion of the market, other than to inform you that it is tradeable and yes we are banking coin again in Stocklabs. People seem to be enjoying themselves. The banter is continuous and customer success is on the move with many educational emails. For the balance of the day, I will walk the dogs, deliver Mom to the airport for departure, go to the gym and attempt to rip a muscle, and then eat a good meal, continue reading Middlemarch, and then go to bed.

I was bored at +55bps, so I started buying recent IPOs — which are being fucking gunned to the skies and beyond. Stocks like CXM, TKNO, GRPH and others now constitute some of my positions. This is easily the riskiest gambit I’ve attempted in months. I closed fully invested and saw my portfolio swing in 30bps increments into the bell, settling at +85bps. Although I appreciate the gains and enjoy the risk and the opportunity to scald some short sellers alive, I am somewhat reticent to speak here boldly — for I very well might be shipwrecked during tomorrow’s trade.

This rare risk taking gambit will include my person trading in the after hours and pre-market if needed. I will say this — +5.5% for the month is a good return. As a point in fact, up 2% for a month is a solid return — even +1.5%. The fact I am not content with grandiose returns speaks to the stubbornness and spoiled nature, delusional even, of my own person. These are traits shared by psychopaths and plebs alike. The only difference between me and most of the people like me is that I am aware of it.

We are seeing renewed lockdowns in Thailand, Israel and Australia — as the new DELTA PLUS, DELTA VARIANT Indian bastard version of the flu spreads like wildfire — presently constituting most COVID cases in the UK — due to heavy Indian traffic and now retarding US recovery in California and other parts of the United Steaks. This bastard version of the flu spreads faster and fucked you a lot harder, even people who are vaccinated.

We are enjoying somewhat of a respite now due to the sun and excess vitamin D. It is my belief, as an internet virologist and staunch conspiracy theorist, we will endure yet another round of LOCKDOWNS this fall. As such, and this goes without saying, COLLAPSE is inevitable.

We are already seeing the mustard seeds of this narrative playing out with gains in ZM, AMZN, ETSY, DASH and other lockdown related plays. Get your ZOOM accounts handy plebs, for you will be locked down inside of your homes with zero supplies for the next decade. Time Magazine will title their Jan 2030 issue: 2020s: THE LOST DECADE.

As for trading today — half my gains were confiscated by the stock Gods — presently sitting up 61bps, desperately attempting to regain some semblance of normalcy here.

Overall listless trading in FANG stocks but rip roaring run in all of the great trading stocks we all had so much fun trading back in 2020- early 2021.

Custom Indices inside Stocklabs

I am of course skeptical it will last and everyone piling in late will get a severe rug pull. Ergo, I am trading very small, holding upwards of 70% cash. Thus far, I am +140bps thanks in CXM and a triple sized position in SUNW which were bought on Friday.

One of the updated data sets in Stocklabs is seasonal stats for hourly returns and daily. I haven’t used this to its maximum capacity yet and as of now it isn’t screenable. Once screenable, the process to isolate optimal timing mechanisms for stock transactions will be enacted. For now, I manually crawl this data and fall back on ETfs to look for patterns.

What is the underlying belief?

HFT programs are run at certain hours of the day to jimmy stocks higher or lower.

For example, last month it was 12pm for the IWM and now it’s 1pm. Something? Maybe nothing. At the very least interesting.

Here are general stats for the past two weeks for IWM, broken down by hours.

And here are stats for USO (oil) at 9am-10am, suggestive the best time to long USO is at the close to day prior or in the pre-market.

And here are days of the week stats for AI, a current position of mine. I am not feeling good about this long into an ominous Monday.

How to ideally fuck this data? Find a trend and front-run it with calls or puts. Rinse and repeat until it switches up.

Major red candles into the close — classic “fuck you, you’re dead” pin action. I traded miserably all week, ending the session off by 115bps for a weekly loss of less than 0.5%. This juxtaposes poorly against gains in my other portfolios, all up more than 5%. In short, I am off and cold and trading poorly. My methods which had produced great results are not working anymore and I have yet to adjust.

The good news is my losses are muted and the damage limited. Month to date, I am still up 5% and if I finish strong next week I can turn this into a meaningful June.

The summer is here and junior is manning the trading turret. Expect listless trading with dead bodies floating near the short till September.

The week is nearly up and all I have to show for it is +0.2% thus far. I am down 60bps for the session for reasons that of course allude me. If I knew why I’d correct it. Thus, it alludes me. Time is running out and I have to figure out a way to trade better, otherwise I would have wasted another week.

Mom is departing in 4 days and after she leaves I’ll have my office back. I tell myself this will make me trade better and perhaps it will — having access to my 400 monitors and in the comforts of my set up that makes me feeeeeel comfy. But that is just pure autistic bullshit. I should be able to sense and feel moves on my phone — if needed.

Markets are up and breadth is once again weak at 60%. This is a stock pickers market and it’s favoring heavily shorted stocks aka MEME stocks — such as SPCE, BBW, EXPR, CHS, NOK etc. Solar is up as well, again heavily shorted.

Into the coming hours my plan is to trade profitably and fast.

More on this later.

I managed to do nothing, even though I accelerated and went into margin. The more I bought the more unchanged I became. I attempted several gambits and all of them resulted in a perfect balance of nothing — leaving yours truly inside of a row boat without oars on a windless day. I sit here now baking in the hot sun, up just 14bps.

I don’t know how to describe this situation, other than to suggest the Gods have toyed with me for fun and amusement.

I have no offerings other than to suggest, plainly, both WISH and NCTY are going higher.

Who the fuck will stop me? I am long by 102% with a bias towards LARGE CAP. This is who I am and I dare you, beg you even, to try to stop me. Thus far my gains are muted for the session — up 40bps or so. But I have peered into the future and see great things happening for me, as I position wisely and perform on a grand stage on a grand scale.

Small cap momo is again bedraggled, paving the way for mega cap delights. While you might forgo this advice and continue to trade poorly, I beg of you to reconsider.

Once again markets favor teracap stocks over small. Breadth in companies with market caps over $100b is 94% while under $1b is just 50%. Clearly, the Reddit/WSB crowd of clowns are having a difficult time earning a living trading YOLO options in their small cap stocks. This has been a recurring them for nearly 6mos and I seriously doubt it will change any time soon.

There are pockets of strength in momo today but mainly the gains are either enjoyed at the open or not at all. Volatility is once again narrowing, which makes it harder to trade for large gains intraday, lest of course you juice portfolios Witt options or leverage.

I don’t have the eternal fortitude to do neither, so I’m indelibly unchanged thus far — carefully nibbling and gnawing at my best screens at an attempted go of it.