Fly Buy: SKF

I bought 4,000 [[SKF]] @ $101.

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, Bernanke will cut rates by 100 bps tomorrow. And, you may lose money.

One day before Bernanke shaves his beard on the market, stocks are ripping higher, with the notable exception of [[VMW]].

As you know, banks, homies and retailers have been leading the market, as crazy people deplete their checking accounts and “toss” them into egregiously bad sectors—for fun.

I must say, today’s durable goods numbers put a damper on the whole “we’re gonna die because we’re in a recession” thesis. Should we get strong employment numbers, later on this week, “The Fly” may have to “flip-flop” on you cowards and start buying stocks again.

Aside from the madness, I do like the refiners here, as they melt the fuck up. Right now, [[VLO]], [[TSO]], [[HOC]], [[WNR]] and [[ALJ]] have extreme momentum—thanks to VLO‘s kickass earnings report.

For a trade, take a look at [[DK]] for a sympathy bounce.

Within financials, finally, I found a stock worth buying: [[AIZ]], aside from [[CMO]].

In short, AIZ sells property insurance to banks who take possession of property, via foreclosure. So, as foreclosures rises, banks will be forced to buy property insurance, likely from AIZ.

A win-win for AIZ.

Finally, despite being tempted to average down on [[SKF]], I will wait until after tomorrow’s Fed meeting. There will be plenty of time to make money.”The Fly” finds no need to buy anything here, ahead of iBankCoin’s glorious “platinum party.”

UPDATE: I lied. I bought more SKF.

…to iBankCoin’s “Platinum Party,” celebrating the millionth page view, in less than three months since launch. All third tier bloggers will be checked at the door.

Festivities will begin on Wednesday, January 30th, 2008, aka “Fed Day.”

Dinosaur Trader, 3rd tier blogger, DinosaurTrader.blogspot.com

As usual, “The Fly” wins again.

Chalk up a humiliating defeat for Dinosaur Trader aka Leberace.

NOTE: Not only does this post prove that Kneale was referring to Danny’s pimp smacking insult of him on tv this afternoon, and not DT’s, it’s also the equivalent of three scud missiles heading for DT’s low-rent blog.

Developing…

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Z8cnXVGm1I 450 300]

Today’s melt up, erased Friday’s melt down. Quite gay, if you ask me.

Much to my chagrin, crazy people continue to press their bets in banks stocks, causing swift annihilation for holders of [[SKF]]. Despite ridiculously bad economic news, market participants are painting the pig with gold—snapping up asshat stocks like [[KBH]], [[PHM]], [[BAC]] and [[WM]] in size.

The downside of all of this optimism is a Federal Reserve let down. If so, prepare to die a very “unglorious” death, at the hands of filthy old bearish guys.

Quite frankly, I hate bears. As a matter of fact, even though I am bearish, I still wish all perma-bears a unique death, similar to the one’s featured in Final Destination.

On the long side, “The Fly” managed to pare some of his stubborn bears bets with gains in [[RIMM]], [[CLX]], [[GME]] and [[GD]].

In short, I am not willing to go “all in” on the bear side, especially ahead of an FOMC meeting. Additionally, throughout time, the market always seems to find a way to fuck the bears.

Lucky for me, I own a time machine. Therefore, I do not need to wait for “time to tell” anything.

Off to prepare several 2 1/2 inch rib eyes.

Best post of 2008.

Quick stock market 101:

Whenever a stock or sector is so popular, only a threat of a terrorist attack or something drastic is able to bring it lower, sell it.

Most recently, [[MCD]], [[DIS]], [[HPQ]] and [[DRYS]], just to name a few, were unbreakable (so it seemed). Everyone on CNBC was praising their business acumen and declaring their stocks prices would shoot to the moon, until it didn’t.

Sold to you, fuck face.

We’ve seen this happen, throughout history, a number of times. As a matter of fact, it will happen again, as soon as risk appetite expands.

Providing you are diversified and keep strict asset allocation rules in place, you’ll never have to worry about blowing yourself up on a stock or sector. The problem: most of you Wall Street gawking asshats are gamblers, unable to sit still in a stock for more than 48 hours.

This, my friends, is a problem—which can be cured with many hours of professional help.

Regarding the market:

The bulls are running wild, due to weak housing data (idiots). Because the economy is so gay, they feel the Fed will slash rates, aggressively. If Bernanke cuts by 50bps, the market will run up 300-400 points, within a week or less.

On a rally, I will sell short into it. My viewpoint is that the economy is not improving, but worsening. And, if equity prices are rising, Wall Street has it wrong. Shocker.

We all make our beds. This is mine.

This whole stimulus check idea has me pissed off. Instead of helping the economy in a real way, through tax cuts and deregulation, the Gov’t cheese fuckers want the people (consuming fucktards) to consumer even more. Will someone remind those constitution fuckers that America has a negative savings rate?

Thank you.

Sending checks to people, while encouraging more reckless spending, is grossly irresponsible. Instead, the Gov’t should encourage people to pay down their debit, or even worse: SAVE IT.

It looks like [[SNDK]] is warning, again. Plain and simple, the semi’s are dead and are not coming back this time. The industry has changed and no longer possesses an iota of pricing power. Without doubt, betting against them, via [[SSG]], is a good idea.

Finally, I expect Bernanke will cut rates on Wednesday. However, keep in mind, after this meeting, the FOMC will not meet until March 18th, essentially taking the helicopter off the table for awhile.

With my money, I will not make any big bets, while helicopters are on the horizon. For now, I will instruct my trader/servant to ever so quietly buy [[SKF]], [[SMN]], [[DUG]], [[REW]], [[SSG]] and short [[DECK]], else I’ll punch his fucking head off.

UPDATE: New Home Sales 604K vs 645K consensus, prior revised to 634K from 647K

Ragin’ Cagin’.

As I sit here, on the road, watching the Asian markets melt like a fucking cheap candle, I am bringing Ragin’ Cagin’ on board the Godly IBC “team.”

As you know, “The Fly” recently allowed Lord Duc to become a member of the “team.” Being that Ducati is an arch enemy of mine, I felt it was only right to bring on my staunchest ally, “RC.”

Let’s all give a warm “fuck you,” in order to welcome Ragin’ Cagin’.