This whole stimulus check idea has me pissed off. Instead of helping the economy in a real way, through tax cuts and deregulation, the Gov’t cheese fuckers want the people (consuming fucktards) to consumer even more. Will someone remind those constitution fuckers that America has a negative savings rate?
Thank you.
Sending checks to people, while encouraging more reckless spending, is grossly irresponsible. Instead, the Gov’t should encourage people to pay down their debit, or even worse: SAVE IT.
It looks like [[SNDK]] is warning, again. Plain and simple, the semi’s are dead and are not coming back this time. The industry has changed and no longer possesses an iota of pricing power. Without doubt, betting against them, via [[SSG]], is a good idea.
Finally, I expect Bernanke will cut rates on Wednesday. However, keep in mind, after this meeting, the FOMC will not meet until March 18th, essentially taking the helicopter off the table for awhile.
With my money, I will not make any big bets, while helicopters are on the horizon. For now, I will instruct my trader/servant to ever so quietly buy [[SKF]], [[SMN]], [[DUG]], [[REW]], [[SSG]] and short [[DECK]], else I’ll punch his fucking head off.
UPDATE: New Home Sales 604K vs 645K consensus, prior revised to 634K from 647K
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LOL, fat man.
Don’t forget that you promised to eat your site when I cut rates this week.
P.S.: Don’t make me break out the gunship, either.
Who are you calling fat, fucker?
“The Fly” isn’t fat, I’ll have you know.
DECK IS GONNA DIE!!!!
The chance of a more robust rate cut this week just went up.
Position yourselves accordingly.
Bernanke put is in place for now.
Fly – what do you have against bandaids for gushing arterial aneurisms? You no think they can stem the gushage? Yee of little to no faith.
Bernanke cuts & then calls off the helicopters. Market will not like Benni calling off future jets, hence market will forthwith test pre-market crash lows fm last week around 1225.
Anyone who expected housing numbers to be anything but weak is stupid. A weak housing market throughout 2008 is already priced in. Lets make a list of everything thats priced in
Weak housing – check
Recession – check
Banks to zero – check
No Liquidity – check
The X Factor is going to be the Sovereign Wealth Funds. These guys have atleast $ 2.5 Trillion in assets possibly $3.5 trillion if rumors of a Saudi $1 trillion fund are true. If they continue buying they could prop up the markets indefinitely.
Uhhh…tax cuts and deregulation?
That’s like the man at the bottom of the hole asking for a better shovel.
Tax cuts and deregulation to encourage business spending, fucktard.
How about this: encourage the expansion of our manufacturing base?
Just a thought.
seeing alot of V’s today, going higher huh.
Mo tax cuts be good to CMO – announced secondary today and already green.
Our manufacturing base is expanding. Only one problem – it’s located in China.
The median price last month dropped 10 percent from December 2006, the biggest 12-month decline in 37 years.
Current new Housing prices understate the actual decline. Last year if you wanted the extra bathroom or finished basement, you had to pay extra. This year builders had to throw all that in and more just to move the place. Net effect: Current sales prices are effectively lower than the prices stated last year.
Yeah, but Dennis Kneale says the housing market is fine, that we’re not going into a recession and that people should be out spending money lest the media be successful in “talking the country” into a recession.
And he’s on TV… so that means you’re wrong.
-DT
Hey dipshits,
I’m planning to raise rates, just to mess with y’all, Princeton economics style. I secretly want this market to tank so I can save the dollar, buy stocks cheaper in my secret Swiss bank account, and prove Cramer and the rest of the media wrong.
Enjoy the ride.
Benny
BZH is green today on the home news. Where are all the bears going?
We aren’t going into a recession—at least that’s what the bond market is telling us.
Yield curve is steepening. Compare spreads between the 2yr and 30 yr treasuries…over 200 basis points, or about 80 basis points higher than historical average.
It’s hard to have quarters of negative GDP growth with those kinds of spreads.
The bond guys are more in tune to the economy and interest rates, so we should consider what the bond market is telling us.
No doubt, financials are still the big issue and it may be years before all this mess gets repaired. However, the rest of the economy should be able to chug along.
Hook ’em horns!
Listen you idiots…giving people money to spend is not the solution. Imagine how much more effective it would be for the $160 billion were invested in companies via private placements of stock. Create our own sovereign investment fund…otherwise we’re just screwing ourselves!!
Tax cuts and deregulation to encourage business spending, fucktard.
We’ve had massive tax cuts and massive deregulation since 2000.
It was in all the papers. Don’t see how you could have missed it.
And now, here we are.
Q4 may be negative GDP, but Q1:2008 will be positive, e.g. we will avoid a recession.
Now is time to take action and buy the dips in high quality names. Two years from now, this mess/opportunity will be a distant memory.
Longhorn,
best of luck, but I fear that strategy will get you to the front of the soup line.
History has shown that the best time to buy stocks is when people are fearful. A vast majority of momentum traders do not make money. They’re always chasing the tail of the dog, trading on past chart data, which may indicate a short term direction due to momentum in the market, but doesn’t do justice for the long term.
Every succesful equity investor knows that you make your money in stocks when you buy high quality names during a market decline and hold for the longer term. Two years from now, people who buy AAPL, RIMM, CSCO, XOM, MCD, etc, will have banked more coin than your traders. Keep in mind the tax rates you pay on ordinary gains. Your net net returns are cut by 1/3 from the nominal return, due to taxes.
Buy low sell high goes without saying. Market timing doesn’t work over the long term, else the majority of traders would be making tons of money.
If everyone is looking at trading off the same charts, using the same indicators and strategies, they’re part of the herd and the herd by definition doesn’t make above average returns.
Create our own sovereign investment fund…otherwise we’re just screwing ourselves!!
Put down the crack pipe.
The LAST thing we need is for the federal gov’t to use tax money to start buying up chunks of the private sector.
What are you, some kind of Communist?
I’ll add two more cents to my four cents and then stop.
There’s an aphorism that says, “don’t fight the Fed”.
You might not like Bernanke and think he’s an asshat, but you’re kidding yourself if you think you can swim against the tide. The Fed started cutting rates in the fall. The trend will soon reverse to up. We are at or near a bottom.
With all the bearishness here, I sense my comments are falling on deaf ears.
A guy named Longhorn is talking about being part of the herd you don’t make any money while simultaneously telling us we are in a Bull market.
Go ahead and buy the leaders from the last bull you amateur. Give us updates on the next bear leg down and tell us all how to bank coin.
You bought the dip in the summer of 2000 didn’t you?
LOnghorn,
“We are at or near a bottom.
With all the bearishness here, I sense my comments are falling on deaf ears.”
We are nowhere near a bottom. You’re walking toward a cliff. The deaf ears are your own.
You’ve been warned.
Fly does this shit 24/7. He crunches the #’s & data. Ignore at your peril.
longhorn-
you are right, but WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY early.
just chill, there is lots more downside left.
you will have your day, be patient.
which bag of douche is trying to run the numbers after that cheery housing report. must be because nymex is getting taken out at 20% below first day close post ipo. non? the rate cut. does anyone have a stinger missile to fuck this helicpoter up?
Bearishness is proving to be very profitable, i’m not giving that up quite yet. A 6 year bull market and a 3 week bear market and we’re ready to climb again? Methinks not.
Chad,
Unless it looks like we’re going into a recession, we won’t see much further downside from here.
The recession jury is still out. There are some very astute people who are on both sides of the fence. People much smarter than you or I.
I just think over the longer term, you want to align yourself with the PPT. That’s how this game works. Many more people would rather see the market go up than down. That is the bottom line.
Starting to buy here is a good idea, since we are down 17% and stocks in general represent good values, especially the beaten down quality names. I’m not advocating going all in. Just saying folks should be looking at buying some positions in some of the better quality large cap names.
With the exception of banks and financials, corporate balance sheets are in pretty good shape.
Rebates to consumers -> more money for Chinese manufacturers.
Cutting interest rates -> cheap US assets.
America is fucking itself, all to support our desire to live beyond our means. It will soon become another Chinese province, right after Taiwan.
I am punching mustaches off so fast over here my arms look like they’re moving in slow motion, when in reality they are moving at light speed, matrix style.
Oh, by the way, the bottom is in.
Fly,
It’s knock his cock off…
Dick
The downward slide is just starting. The merchants of the world will mourn in sackcloth and ashes at our demise. We have been floating their boats all this time. All good things eventually come to an end.
U.S. is similar to Holy Roman Empire during it’s decline. Look it up.
Ott, you’re seldom wrong but you are here.
Planning is a huge part of our economic stability. Some resolution on the 2003 tax cuts would be a great boon to the economy here.
Tax increases, a disaster.
I have been interviewing for a job with the Chinese Ministry of Finance. This ship is going down to the bottom.
Tax cuts and deregulation to encourage business spending, fucktard.
How about this: encourage the expansion of our manufacturing base?
Just a thought
______________
Impressing me you are with your heretofore undisclosed grasp of economics.
Many midachlorians in your veins must course!
Fly, remember my question about shorting stocks via DXD and hedging with long exposure to financials. that trade worked out quite well.
Another short idea….NM (Navios Maritime). pricing will decline and there will be a flood of new ships hitting the market.
Expand manufacturing? You missed econ 101 and comparative/absolute advantage…you must have severed your head with your light sabre…
Dave Chappelle on Recession
http://www.blackbottom.com/watch.php?v=9f96e04e964f3f436e7ceba77ea24ae5ea20a24f
Joke of the day – commercial RE in an upward surge, srs off 2.6%. the very bad housing report has nothing to do with you boys, or is it the gapping premiums on commercial lending that keep increasing as the fed funds keep going down?
We’ve had massive tax cuts and massive deregulation since 2000.
Massive? You call top margin going to 35% from 39% “massive?”
And what is this “massive deregulation” of which you speak?
Maybe I had you pegged wrong…
Jake:
This isn’t a binary choice between keeping the existing tax cuts and eliminating those tax cuts.
If your goal is to rebuild the economy, you don’t just do more of the same that brought us to this point.
The rationale offered by the current administration for the existing tax cuts has been as flexible as the rationale behind the war in Iraq.
To keep the existing tax cuts would be to argue that the Bush administration’s various explanations have all been wrong before, but are finally correct now. I view that as unlikely.
The current cuts didn’t prevent the current situation. It would be difficult to convince me that they are the solution. For the amount they cost us in terms of increased issuance of government debt, I think we could do much, much better for the country.
You forgetting changes in taxation of dividends?
You forgetting large increases in tax credits for children?
You forgetting changes in estate tax law?
As for the deregulation – much of that has come in the form of lack of enforcement as well as in the form of “reinterpretation” of legislation.
What do you think DoucheBush is going to do — sit on his hands?
Complaining about government meddling is like that a woman with a knife at her throat telling the rapist to be gentle.
It’s always going to pain and disappointment from those rat-fuckers.
Beefsteak:
You might not like Bernanke and think he’s an asshat, but you’re kidding yourself if you think you can swim against the tide. The Fed started cutting rates in the fall. The trend will soon reverse to up. We are at or near a bottom.
The Fed was cutting rates all through 2001-2003. How long(horn) you willing to wait?
Methinks you’re a “green”horn.
Rebates to consumers = more money for Chinese manufacturers.
Cutting interest rates = cheap US assets.
America is fucking itself, all to support our desire to live beyond our means. It will soon become another Chinese province, right after Taiwan.
This too is stupid. American is only “fucking itself” in that it’s not taking full advantage of the free money China is sending its way. That’s right, free money. China is artificially impeding it’s own currency in order to maintain it’s place as supplier to the world’s largest consumer. This is a GOOD thing for the US, much to the idiot Lou Dobbs brigade’s chagrin.
China is — right now — willing to sacrifice it’s standard of living in order to subsidize it’s young industrial base. Again, a “win win” for us, as them cleansing our system of shitty menial low-value added jobs FORCES the US (and Japan, and Taiwan and other first world countries) to INNOVATE and to bank a return on our high labor costs, which again, say it with me folks “RAISES OUR STANDARD OF LIVING.”
China is “fucking itself” willingly in order to take it’s place at the table and obtain a share of “internet billions” that we are now 30 years ahead of them on. The irony is that they are impeding their own ability to innovate by artificially keeping their currency and wage rates low.
Celebrate, don’t denigrate.
“The Fed was cutting rates all through 2001-2003.”
Jake,
You are correct. Then look what the market did from April 2003 to Oct 2007.
Ott — that’s idiocy. You don’t pay off gov’t debt by raising taxes and increasing gov’t’s spending as a percentage of GNP. Did you take any economic history in school?
This is the old Demo trope.. “oh we need to raise taxes in order to pay down the debt.” You can see the bullshit in that by how much those commies are concerned with the MUCH MUCH MUCH larger liability of Socialist Security and Medicare.
ie — “not concerned at all.”
Beefsteak, Again, that was after a three year painful degradation.
We’ve had about a month and half of bear, thus far, depending on your metrics.
You’re ready to wait another two plus years for your ship to come in?
Ott — I guess I don’t get where your trudging towards?
Do you believe the dividend cuts were a bad thing? Do you think double taxation is a good idea, w. regard to dividends and estate confiscation?
How does this “help our economy?” By putting more funds into fucktard Congresses hands?
Who in their right mind could call themselves a student of the economy and think raising taxes are a good thing?
Shit, even my old Marxist econ professors from my ridiculously liberal alma mater are crab walking away from that steaming pile of dogsmess.
Economic Primer on China:
Some good, some bad.
Beefsteak: Another lesson on rate cutting and it’s effects… Japan in the early nineties.
Jake wrote:
Ott — that’s idiocy. You don’t pay off gov’t debt by raising taxes and increasing gov’t’s spending as a percentage of GNP. Did you take any economic history in school?
You are getting too worked up for a discussion. I will await another thread.
Jake,
Longhorn beefsteak doesn’t get it. Let sleeping dogs lie.
Otnott seems to be an intelligent guy, but I don’t agree with his reasoning either.
But that’s why I enjoy coming here…to read the differing viewpoints and try to make sense out it all.
Ha! Fed futures are pricing in a 100% probability of 50 bps rate cut, so no surprise there.
The Fed is going to have to come up with a few tricks up their sleeve to woo investors back into stocks. Keep in mind that we are the financial mafia of the US, so we can do as we please and break a few kneecaps in our process.
Our mandate is to regulate the banking system, something we have not done a good job at. Now we pay the consequences for our asshattery…er, all of you will pay the consequences for our asshattery. Heh-heh.
BPOE:
This is just short covering before the FED. Low volume. Remember when the FLY said the market could go up 200 to 300 points. SELL into this rally fools. Making up stories don’t work. You don’t make record emergency rate cuts without a fucking mess. The FED is behind the curve.
Note to bulls:
Valuations should take a backseat in a market downturn like this. Cheap stocks get cheaper, and fundamentals that look good now, will disappear as events unfold. Buying a stock now that is trending down because you think the market is mispricing is a dangerous thing to do. Too much shit can go wrong at this point. If you really think a stock is a good value, wait for the chart action to confirm your thinking.
Gold futures hit a new high of $929 this morning.
Here we go.
Developing….
Ott/Dawg —
Not getting worked up. This is the way I am all the time. It’s a NY Asshole kind of thing.
Don’t let it get in the way of recognizing my respect for you both.
Go Giants!
Go Giants, indeed !
(Breaking news: Rumor has it that Tom Brady and Gisele were seen in Mexico on a quickie pre-Super Bowl getaway)
Alpha,
I wish. Prolly more like Bellicheat’s got Brady locked into a chastity belt right now…