S&P to the Rescue

S&P just issued bullish commentary on the write off situation, saying “the end is in sight.” And, they declare most big banks will writedown more than what the actual losses will amount to be. They exclaim writedowns will top out around 275 billion, almost half of what [[UBS]] is projecting. As a result, the market just rallied 100 points.

My only beef is this: since when is S&P right about anything?

I mean, last time I checked, they were wrong about everything. If it was up to me, I’d have the executives of S&P, Moody’s and the other assholes from Fitch investigated for fraud, with regards to their relationships with the people they rate.

In short: S&P has no dice.

I bought 5,000 [[SMN]] @ $41.50.

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 @ $39.75.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your bank will go bankrupt, effectively freezing your life savings. And, you may lose money.

“The Fly” has officially come out of retirement, with guns blazing of course.

First things first: a widely circulating rumor says “don’t do business with [[BSC]].” As a result, investors are acting as if there is a run on the bank, dropping the shares more than 7 bucks.

Good for them.

Secondly, I’m a big advocate of destroying the “ag plays.” Please, do not tell me the sector is cheap. It is flaming, out of control, expensive—flush with excesses. Every Joe with a series 7 has been buying [[MOS]], [[POT]] and [[MON]] for his clients. Therefore, I want to short them, crush his clients, then laugh on the way to the car dealership.

You guys just don’t get it. “The Fly” is an asshole, who happens to win all the time. You’re over there, sitting down in that bullshit pleather chair from [[SPLS]], while I’m bouncing empty Monster cans off my trader/servants head.

So here goes:

We have a full fledged run on the dollar. Short it, via [[UDN]]. Thank me later.

Also, gold will continue to melt up. Get long [[DGP]].

Finally, I feel as if it’s a little late to the [[SKF]] party. So, instead, get short [[DSL]] or [[FED]]. They both will go to zero.

And, let’s not forget to “milk the farmer,” via shorting his stocks—which include long [[SMN]], short MON, POT and MOS.

I sold short 2,000 [[MOS]] @ $103.63.

Disclaimer: If you sell short MOS because of this post, The Woodshedder Bottom will take a effect. And, you may lose money.

Developing…

Look for Japanese corporate hedges to trigger, as soon as yen/dollar hits $99. The dollar is going to get routed.

More on this later.

UPDATE: Lenny is coming out of retirement too!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFVM5pVTwkM 450 300]

The bears are running up commodity prices, in order to “box in” Bernanke, with his liberal rate cutting ways. That’s my latest conspiracy theory.

Look, the bear case is still alive and well. After all, the recession will be spear headed by the weak/beaten consumer, not the banks. The prospect of insolvency just scares people. But, even if they’re solvent, that doesn’t mean the market and the economy will recover.

Not at all.

The Fed is sacrificing the consumer on the alter of lower rates, in order to save a few bad banks.

Before the next leg down, I believe the bulls will give it the ol’ college try for a breakout. However, like past attempts, they will fail and eventually get rolled on by an army of 10 million seething bears.

The amateur trade is to heavily sell short here. It’s a classic trap.

After huge up days, there is always a trickle effect, as idle cash rushes back into the market and over zealous short sellers try to get flat.

Once again, wait for the market to move higher again, before re-initiating some obscene short positions.

On the top of my list is [[SMN]], [[FXP]], [[SKF]], [[SRS]] and short [[POT]], [[FED]].

I get the sense that the market is going to melt all the way up to 12,500. Shorting here may seem like a good idea. However, keep in mind, the great bearded one will appear next week, to slash rates some more. And, all of the brokerages are scheduled to post earnings.

Something tells me, no matter how bad the numbers are, the market may spike.

So, the game plan is simple: relax, go play shuffle board. Let the idiots with low IQ’s run the market up to 12,500, then annihilate them with a barrage of sharply pointed short sales.

Also, in the meantime, get yourself a little gold. Playing gold to $1,000 an ounce is the easiest trade in the world.

Finally, it’s no surprise to me, seeing the health care names get blown out with extreme vigor. From [[WLP]] to [[HUM]] to [[WCG]], they’re all scams.

A very close client of mine, who happens to be a Physician with a very large business, has been short the health care fuckers for more than a year. He always says “they’re all criminals.” I am starting to believe him. He also hates [[MHS]].

Keep your eye on the [[FXY]]. People with large accounts and big ego’s do not like Yen strength. With Yen/Dollar approaching $100, expect to hear talk of the “carry trade unraveling,” yet again.

Just know, Japan is entirely screwed by our wheel-barrow dollar, being a big exporter and all.

As of now, “The Fly” is NOT ready to come out of retirement. But, he is contemplating it.

I’ll have you know, “The Fly” has been working on clicking his mouse, while throwing “faux champagne bottles” at his trader/servant, in order to simulate his former trading environment.

Finally, from the luxury of the shuffle board court, “The Fly” thinks gold, via [[DGP]], and short dollars, via [[UDN]], makes sense here.