18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,006 Blog Posts

Financials Melting Like a Cheap Candle

With profound weakness in [[BSC]], [[WM]], [[ABK]], [[SOV]] and [[CORS]], I suspect many investors are biting the bullet and taking losses on financials.

Although the short financial trade is crowded, it may still work, for much of 2008. The share prices are down, but do not reflect a bad 2008, yet.

Most people are still gingerly optimistic about a 2008 comeback, particularly in the brokers.

How about a big bankruptcy?

Well, we haven’t had one yet. I suspect there will be some sort of capitulation day in 2008, on the back of a “gigunta” bankruptcy, which will allow the sector to bottom.

Until then, I want to be short [[C]], [[BAC]], [[JPM]], [[AIG]], [[WFC]], [[GS]], [[AXP]], [[MS]] and [[FNM]], via [[SKF]].

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Cleaning House

With [[RIMM]] shooting higher, amongst many of my long positions, I am going to sift through my position sheets and begin dumping losers, mainly to get rid of dead weight and take end of year tax losses.

Also, I want to start fresh in 2008, no longer beholden to old names.

Mother Market certainly hooked me up this week, with big dicked gains in a variety of stocks. I will not let this spike in my portfolio’s go to waste.

Sometime next week, I will post my top 10 holdings, going into ’08.


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RIMM Stole Christmas

From the bearshitters.

Right away, the pussified bearshitter will run to his filthy monitor, exclaiming: “hey Fly, you’re not really a bear. Now all of a sudden you’re a bull. Fuck you, man.”

No, fuck you–zoo fucker.

The only entity “The Fly” pledges allegiance to is his checking account balance (I am aware that my checking account is not an “entity” per se. However, I felt like writing it at the time). Everything else is just fodder.

As you know, [[RIMM]] is a top 5 position of “The Fly’s.” Granted, I didn’t have the stones to buy more yesterday; but I own a truckload. Also, in recent weeks, I’ve bought the dips.

Long story short, today’s surge in RIMM will do wonders for my year-to-date returns. With a few other stocks going my way, I might crack 20%.

Last year, I was up 27%.

Today we get a rally. However, there are stilll many issues out there that can poleax the market.

Use this melt up to get liquid.

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“The Fly” is Punching Higher

I had a great day, thanks in large part to the return of my “calculator brain,” and high IQ—up 1.6%. I had monster gains in [[VMI]]. [[ORCL]], [[LNN]]. [[MVIS]] and [[RIMM]]. My short positions barely moved—effectively allowing me to enjoy the long side without interruption.

By the way, I’m not impressed with today’s move in MVIS. Some friends of “The Fly” were ripping out offers today, buying more than 80,000 shares. Without “Fly & Friends,” MVIS would have been down or flat.

You MVIS holders are beholden to me. Show some fucking respect.

Today is about RIMM and who will get killed by it. My best bet: it trades higher. Anything that can hurt RIMM will most likely occur in the 2nd half of 2008, not now. I’d be shocked to see them miss here.

In closing, it looks like the Santa Claus rally is getting started. Enjoy it, for it will abruptly end sometime soon.

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Fly Buy: AGU

I bought 2,500 AGU @ $62.30.

Disclaimer: If you buy [[AGU]] because of this post, your roof will fall on top of your presents. And, you may lose money.

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The Naz looks poised to advance by 2% today, giving the bulls an early Christmas present, by the way.

As you know, [[RIMM]] will be posting quarterly numbers tonight. As you know, I am long the bitch from $18-101. It is one of my biggest positions and take pride in the fact that I’ve held it for the duration of its recent run.

However, I’m somewhat concerned by the recent price action, grossly underperforming other tech bellweathers, like [[AAPL]].

In short, the business is firing on all cylinders. The enterprise business is smoking hot, but may cool if the job market softens. They are poised to enter China, sometime in 2008, but face new competition from AAPL.

With my position, I am doing nada-thing. Should the numbers and guidance go gangster, the stock will be back to $130, in no time. On a bad number, RIMM goes to $85.

In other words, trading RIMM here is “garbagio,” a fancy type of garbage or bullshit.

Stay away, both long and shorts, if you like money.

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Position Updates: SKF, FXP

Many of you buy double inverse ETF’s, without knowing the components. Again, work smart you fucking faggots (no offense to gay guys), not hard.

Here are the top 10 holdings for both [[FXP]] and [[SKF]], with leverage adjusted weightings:





[[ICBAF]]– 12.2%


















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Milk the Farmer; RPG the Scottrade Helicopter

Don’t expect “The Fly” to work hard, especially at the end of the year. I always say: “I don’t work hard. I work smart.” As you know, working hard is for “illegal Mexicans” or mid-level executives.

[[BSC]] posted a bomb, while [[LNN]] scored a goal, then hit the bears with a puck to the teeth for good measure.

With LNN through the roof, on its way to a hundo, go long [[VMI]].

NOTE: The following ag stocks are on fire: [[LNN]], [[CNH]], [[CF]], [[TNH]], [[VMI]], [[TITN]], [[AGU]], [[MOS]], [[POT]], [[ADM]], [[MOO]] and [[AGU]] [[BWLD]] is eating bullets, thanks to the toolboxes at [[JPM]], initiating coverage with a homo-hammer.

Sometime soon, I will be posting a summary of my trading year: what went right/wrong. Being up 15%+ is a major disappointment for me, considering I was up more than 45% in May. There are specific reasons as to why research got sloppy and “The Fly” got lit up, on certain names.

More on that later.

For now, I’m trying to refocus my efforts on establishing an investment theme for 2008. However, since I’m bearish, it is difficult.

If I was putting together a portfolio today, using fresh money (as opposed to old money), I’d buy [[VMI]], [[RIG]], [[CLX]], [[MVIS]] (for a trade), [[FXP]] and [[SKF]].

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