18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,532 Blog Posts

Lights Out for the Bears

Wow! Let me try to explain how I see things and what I did.

This is not normal trading behavior. The death of [[BSC]] is not supposed to start a mind boggling rally in financials. I think [[JPM]] was up 24% for the week.

During the week, we saw a big decline in commodities. For the bulls, this is a very good development. If it holds, it will help improve margins from restaurants to trannies—down to the bagel operators: [[BAGL]].

However, over the last 6 months, the way to play spikes is to fade them. I see no reason to alter this course of action, despite what Dick Bove has to say.

Going into today, I had zero exposure to [[SKF]] and very little in [[SRS]]. However, after today’s monster move, I felt comfortable buying both, betting investors will take profits, early next week.

My guess, the window dressing maniacs will not want to show financial holdings on their sheets.

As for the market:

It is possible we can run up to 12,500 or 12,750. But, calling a bottom is fucking absurd.

Remember, those who think this is the bottom believe the market will be down less than 10% this year. Do you really believe the market, considering all the fucked news, will be down less than 10% for the year?

Come on!

For the day, I lost 1.8%, which is nothing. I spit on minor losses.

Towards the end of the day, I redoubled my shorting efforts in [[LEH]], at 49.

And, I covered some of my [[MOS]] short, in order to raise cash for LEH and other things.

Have a great easter, fuckface.

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Fly Buy: MOS

I covered some of my [[MOS]] short, buying 1,000 @ $92.15.

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Fly Sell: LEH

I sold short 2,000 [[LEH]] @ $49.10.

Disclaimer: If you sell short LEH because of this post, your broker dealer will go under, without Fed assistance. And, you may lose money.

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Fly Buys: SRS, SMN, SKF

I bought 2,000 [[SRS]] @ $98.94, 2,000 [[SMN]] @ $43.30 and 1,000 [[SKF]] @ $106.68.

UPDATE: I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $107.34.

Disclaimer: If you buy any of the above stocks because of this post, Bernanke will cut rates this Sunday, once again. And, you may lose money.

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Quit Being Stoopid [sic]

Why does everyone attempt to call bottoms or tops? Every fucking time the market spikes, all the assholes come out of the woodwork, exclaiming “this is it. The bottom is in.”

Retarded analysts, like Dick Bove, make absurd market calls, emphatically declaring the bottom in banks.

Look you, it’s not important to know when the bottom is in or not. What’s vital to your account statement is the proficiency of your asset management. Instead of guessing or throwing dice at stocks, invest with caution.

For every spike in [[C]], there is a “homo hammer of death” in [[CIT]].

In my opinion, all of the headline risk is to the downside. Taking long positions is okay. Just do it in moderation and do not be tricked by the assholes who have a vested interest in getting you back to the casino.

Keep in mind, we have yet to see significant job losses. If you think times are tough now for the mortgage industry, wait until national unemployment is at 6.5%, like it is in California.

I do not have an interest in playing bounces, or 1-2 day moves. For now, I am gearing myself to take advantage of the negative headwinds. If you think about it, the only time the market spikes is when the Fed intervenes.

Eventually, the Fed halo will vanish, as it did in 2002.

In short, the volatility is insane, making it nearly impossible for neutral swing traders to make money.

With my money, until I see significant blood in the streets, not this paper cut shit, I will keep my bias to the downside.

Top pick: cash

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Position Updates: MOS

Fuck “ag plays.” [[MOS]] will die, without honour [sic].

Continue to go about your sub-par existence.

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