Rice shortages is an inside job.
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,428 Blog Posts
Led Zeppelin: When the Levee Breaks
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-AanPHMbC4&feature=related 450 300]
Comments »Wake Me Up When the Market Opens
What a boring day. We have crude at $120, the dollar at new lows and food shortages in Japan, yet retards with cash feel it is necessary to buy stocks.
I must tell you, this is a very frustrating market. However, knowing the eventual outcome, aware of the inevitable fate of the market, keeps “The Fly” determined to add to his burgeoning short positions, without fear.
The market leadership is exhausting itself. You cannot have stocks like [[MON]], [[CF]], [[POT]] and [[MOS]] march higher, without pause. As strong as the sector is, it is extraordinarily overextended.
In addition, many tech stocks, like [[AAPL]], [[RIMM]] and [[GOOG]] are out of control expensive.
On the other hand, there are some niche plays that are cheap, like [[EMC]], [[VMW]] and select Chinese lottery stocks like [[GSI]] or [[GU]].
In short, the market is back to normal trading. The likelihood of a sudden sharp drop is limited. However, the easy money has been made. From here on, I suspect the market will be a stock pickers haven, or death nail to those who are unable to move quickly.
Comments »Rice Farmer versus Buyer of Rice
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THn4OmwxT_I 450 300]
Comments »The Plutonium is Back in the Time Machine
I do not think I am right about the direction of the market. I know it.
It’s only a matter of time when reality sinks in and people realize they were buying retarded stocks, at fucktarded levels.
Go ahead, look back at the years when the markets sucked wind. Following abysmal January’s, there is ALWAYS a run from March-April. However, they always fail, as grey matter activates cogent thinking.
Look you, I do not need to pound this drum, for it is here to make me rich—not you. However, I will tell you, with the certainty of a genius amongst Congressional misfits, we will trade down between 10-15% in 2008.
With that being said, I will remind you of my game plan:
Bet against stupid furry boots, via short [[DECK]].
Bet against dumb people who work at banks, via [[SKF]].
Take advantage of commercial vacancies, vis [[SRS]]
Bet against China, especially before the Olympics, via [[FXP]].
Bet against weak casinos, via short [[MS]] and [[LEH]].
Bet against hedge fund managers chasing performance, via short [[POT]] and [[MON]].
Bet against Cramer and his inferior website, via short [[TSCM]].
Any questions?
Comments »Children, Prepare to Die
“The Fly” is coming and he’s after your money. Lock the doors and hide in the kitchen cabinets.
Developing…
Comments »Market Internals Look Weak
Without a doubt, the person who constructed both the [[FXP]] and [[SMN]] is an “Emissary of Satan.” In my mind, I know it is true.
What’s important for all of you to understand, is several things:
For one, “The Fly” is always at his best when faced with adversity, unlike many of you peasants who cry when ice cream melts from your cone.
Secondly, I have already plotted my revenge and it is most definitely pending.
And finally, “The Fly” always wins, even after severe losses.
During today’s tape, there is significant negative under currents. In case you are wondering, I am back to doing research.
Here is today’s winner/loser list:
Winners:
[[FITB]], [[HCBK]], [[CEA]], [[SHI]], [[GSI]], [[YZC]], [[EAT]], [[CPO]], [[CHK]], [[FWLT]], [[XTO]], [[NS]], [[MHS]], [[ZRAN]], [[RMBS]], [[MXC]], [[FSLR]], [[ASTI]], [[BCSI]], [[LNN]], [[FCX]], [[SCHN]], [[TIE]], [[SA]], [[PCU]], [[WYNN]], [[GOOG]], [[ESRX]], [[EXM]], [[MICC]], [[DRYS]], [[GNK]] and [[LOGI]].Losers:
[[CME]], [[VISN]], [[GAP]], [[CMG]], [[COH]], [[UNH]], [[CI]], [[ISRG]], [[NVLS]], [[TXN]], [[WNR]], [[RES]], [[WHQ]], [[SAY]], [[PER]], [[NFLX]], [[SNCR]], [[TSCM]], [[TLAB]], [[LXK]], [[RS]], [[ZEUS]], [[X]], [[CENX]], [[PCAR]], [[CTSH]], [[RIMM]], [[AAPL]], [[GENZ]], [[NTAP]], [[PAY]], [[FORM]], [[LRCX]], [[VSEA]], [[KLAC]], [[AMZN]], [[DD]] and [[YRCW]].My guess, the market closes down between 1-2% today. Aside from [[T]], there aren’t any Dow components that can lead a rally today.
Top pick: [[SKF]]
Comments »RBS is Fucked
I’m somewhat shocked by this one. They are pricing the biggest rights offering in European history, at a 46% discount to yesterday’s closing price. If you notice, all of the new offerings are getting priced 30-46% below closing quotes.
Somewhat odd, no?
Comments »Royal Bank of Scotland announced a record 12 billion pound ($24 billion) rights issue on Tuesday to cover a potential 5.9 billion pound writedown on the value of toxic assets and help rebuild a stretched balance sheet.
RBS said it expects disposals to generate 4 billion pounds in core capital by the end of this year and could sell all or part of its insurance business.
RBS will offer 11 new shares for every 18 existing shares at 200 pence per share in the rights issue, Europe’s biggest ever, representing a 46 percent discount to Monday’s closing price.
“It’s a reassuring discount, and investors will be pleased that it’s such a large amount and not 5 or 6 billion — they want RBS to raise some money so that the company can move forward,” said Mark Sartori, head of European trading at Fox-Pitt, Kelton.
The bank said it had assumed there will be additional hits to the value of assets, including the ABN wholesale business it bought last year, due to the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent credit crunch. It estimated the effect of writedowns on core capital will be 4.3 billion pounds net of tax, or 5.9 billion pounds before tax.
Both the rights issue and writedown were no surprise after several days of widespread speculation, but they mark an abrupt U-turn for RBS after it said earlier this year it did not need to raise capital.
Britain’s second biggest bank said it plans to keep core tier 1 capital in excess of 6 percent, which would make it one of Europe’s best capitalised banks. The ratio stood at 4.5 percent at the end of 2007, one of the lowest in Europe.
I Want Designer Oil
I just got back from one of my patented late night drives and I had a “vision,” as I watched some poor fool fill up my tank—while at some egregious New Jersey gas station.
“Designer gas.”
That’s right, you heard it here first.
Soon enough, gas will only be for the very wealthy. Normal folk, like most of you, will be forced to ride to work on horses or bicycles. So, in order to cater to the rich, why not have Prada or Gucci gas stations?
Better yet, why not commingle famous art galleries with gasoline stations?
“Sotheby’s Gas”
One could pick up a Picasso, while spending 2g’s for a full tank of “luxurious” grade fuel.
Aside from that, I was thinking of new “stylish” ways to heat homes.
How about this:
“Corn Cob Fireplaces or Furnaces”
Instead of fucking with the environment, by using filthy fossil fuels to heat our homes, do what the Government does: burn corn.
One would just shovel thousands of corn cobs into his fireplace, while watching the poor schmucks in Egypt scurry about—looking for rice.
As for Asian trading:
China is getting its lips punched off again. I’m sure the asshats here in the States will view that as a buying opportunity for chicom stocks, which have been on an unbelievable roll—compressing [[FXP]] to the lows of 2008.
NOTE: Larry Kudlow pimp smacked Dennis Kneale this evening, when Dennis tried to applaud the drop in the dollar and exclaim a 50% drop in the Shanghai was “good news.” Dennis also went on to say the 100% spike in flour was no biggie, since the price of bread has “only risen by 8%.” Apparently Dennis believes the additional cost to the producer of bread will just be subsidized by the Government or something.
Not a bad idea for Captain Treasury.
If one of you fuckers has that video clip, please share it.
Confederate UPDATE: Woodshedder on a “job interview”:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atleFRhrJlQ&feature=related 450 300] Comments »
