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Bowser of a Day for HORATIO CLAWHAMMER

It was an all around bad day, for HORATIO CLAWHAMMER. After being elated with fresh 52 week lows this morning in both AG and JCP, they spring boarded higher–as degenerates shuffled into the 52 week low list, trying to bottom feed some crumbs from the gravel.

On top of that, my last remaining position of size, FRO, took another blow–as shipping rates continue to slide. They were going up for weeks, coinciding with share price recoveries. But now they’re heading lower again.

FRO is refusing some cargo because they are losing money on shipping goods. There are so many ships out there, pirates navigating the seas, the entire industry is going to bankrupt itself. It’s beyond absurd. Back in 2008, these clowns were getting paid over $200,000 per day: now they’ll be luck to get 10k. Nonetheless, some people think rates could be bottoming, as supply disappears due to broad ranging insolvency.

FRO locked up its financing and doesn’t have any near term maturities. Therefore, it’s a lotto ticket without risk of default, any time soon.

I’ll be watching rates ever so closely and keep you appraised if and when there is a sea-change (pun intended).

I was down 1.3% for the day, despite having 60% in cash.

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Before You Defecate on the Boat, KNOW THIS

Some of you are beguiled by the seemingly downward spiral in the shipping sector, following my brazen FRO and GNK purchases. As if my declaration of “wanting a quick and expeditious bankruptcy in the name, so that the shares can move higher” wasn’t warning enough for the small amount of grey matter floating around in your skull.

I’ve always said, from the second I bought FRO, it was a hardcore, almost pornographic, degenerate gambler play. Since then, the stock is down 10%, amidst a general market correction. As a result, you’ve bankrupted yourself again.

Geez.

Don’t look now, but the market is trying to make me look bad, after penning such dire predictions in a previous post. As such, the lowest of the low sector on earth, the boats, are attempting to lift out from the morass of sucking.

OSGIQ is leading the charge! (LOL)

Other notable movers are FREE, VLCCF, TK, DCIX, DSX and SB.

One week returns are dreadful, most in the double digits. However, if you look at the space over 1-6 months, you will find outperformance.

Boats

In short, stop being a pansy ass and accept responsibility for your own decisions. When playing the lottery, do you get mad and throw a hissy fit, like a small girl, when your numbers aren’t chosen?

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Tepid Response to Yesterday’s Bloodletting

Today’s top industries are ridiculous ones: electronics retailers and silver. People are plowing money into BBY and nefarious silver miners as if the year was 2006 and the flat screen had just broken through the middle class ranks.

Let’s see the market for what it is and what it’s going to be.

Barely 50% of stocks are up today and we’ve given back the rally–as all indices are now lower.

The dollar is up, TLT is up and commodities are decidedly lower. This is no longer a “long only” market, but one that you should fear.

For the love of God, people are buying Bitcoins to make money, not to preserve wealth. We’ve hit the apex of speculation and can go no more.

I am officially bearish on the markets, with a net bearish position, no longer interested in hedging–but making money on the downside. There is a distinction between the two. The majority of my cash (60%) will remain idle, as the market corrects. There will be moments of weakness, where I jump in prematurely, so know that in advance.

If I am right, the market meanders in a tight range until late April, then drops off the table in May for a 5%+ decline, exacerbated by further losses in June.

But remember, there is nothing wrong with a little correction. We need to nourish the tree of the markets with the blood of the moronic trader.

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WTF! Yen is Cratering; Japanese Stocks are Karate Kicking Higher

I can’t remember ever seeing a currency down 3.5% in a day and that being good news for the host country.
FXY

Last night the Bank of Japan announced they were going to buy bonds, up to 40 year maturities, forever, open ended. In other words, they are following the golden path of Benjamin Bernanke and have begun to QE themselves to prosperity.

Tell me, do I lie?

Japan

The auto makers, HMC and TM, are the obvious winners in a weak yen environment. I’ve been highlighting Japan for 6 months now and it is my favorite market.

The big winners will be companies with NIKKEI exposure, NMR, MTU and MFG come to mind. But HIG (I sold yesterday) also has some interesting upside exposure there too.

The easiest way to play it, ironically, is through an American asset manager, WETF. Wisdom Tree owns the only hedged ETF, DXJ, which has been enjoying 90%+ organic growth in assets raised, because it is the only way to enjoy the upside of the NIKKEI, while hedging out the currency risk.

WETF makes for a great acquisition target for BLK, who owns the iShares family of funds.

Lastly, there is a double inverse, triple lindy, way to play the denigration of the Yen, via YCS.
YCS

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JOE FRESH CAN’T SAVE $JCP

Nice bounce today. It’s hard to bet against the guy with the printing press.

JCP is hitting fresh 52 week lows. Perhaps investors took another look at Ron Johnson’s proposed savior– Joe Fresh– and had a change of heart.
joe fresh 10-20-10

No word on how “Montauk” Bill Ackman feels about this, or George Soros removing hundreds of millions from Pershing Square.

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BITCOINS: Look Out Below

Don Harrold sums it up perfectly. Buyer beware.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPO0FhstA-8 603 500]

Last time I checked, Bitcoins were trading at $133.

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SWEEP THE LEG!

Leg
With gains in my AG short eclipsing 13% and the stock recovering half of today’s losses, I am adding to my position through the short sale of an additional 10,000 shares.

God willing, all of the silver bulls will perish and a new age of fiat currency can run amok, side by side, with the internet nerds safely housed in Bitcoins.

The market is bouncing here and both gold and silver are coming off the lows, which is allowing for some breathing room to exist in the miners. However, I believe this to be a temporary phenomenon.

I have one more tranche of dollars set aside to short AG higher, if need be.

“The Fly” doesn’t offer safe haven or respite to his enemies, in this case silver longs. He sweeps the leg, Johnny, every single time.

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Happy Hunting

Can you smell the blood?

Here is a trail for you to survey. It’s a fairly straight forward, almost ignorant, strategy, which works 7 out of 10 times in down tapes (audited by my Chinese accounting firm). Pick the very worst sector and short the stocks still floating above their 52 week highs until they break.

gold Silver

My favorites are AG, SLW, NGD and CDE

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Fly Buy: $HDGE

I wanted to short a wide array of stocks, so I bought HDGE.

Here is their top 10 shorts. It’s an actively managed short ETF.

CTL, DB, TCK, FOSL, FFIV, GT, CMG, CBT, WIN, GMCR, JOSB, BHI

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I Just Sold My Last Meaningful Position

I kicked out HIG for a 3% loss, despite liking the stock for its exposure to Japanese equities.

This is it, the beginning of the crescendo in selling that will lead to the eventual and complete destruction of equities.

Just kidding. But I am looking for a 5-10% dip, possibly more. With the time that I have now, I am blogging, building a buy list (which I will reveal later) and making sacrifices to the Gods (the old and the new), asking them to grant me the honor of buying your margin calls.

I am now sitting with a 73% cash position. However, I am looking to increase my short exposure, so stay tuned for that.

 

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