Forget about futures or where your stupid stocks open this morning. The real action will come after the Fed has their say, tomorrow afternoon. Will the Fed “taper” as many suggest? Or, will Ben and Co. continue the path of God, liquifying the markets so that we might enjoy splendour, live leisurely while the poor suck on pieces of black coal and mutton?
All of these questions, AND MORE, will be answered tomorrow.
For now, sit back and relax like a man on deathrow just one day before he is to visit ol sparky.
This could go down as one of those posts that mark the exact top in the markets, at least for awhile. But there is something that’s been gnawing at me and no one seems to be talking about it: INPUT COSTS!
The above table is my raw commodity index inside of The PPT. As you can see, over the past two years most commodities have collapsed. No wonder SBUX, SJM, DNKN and GMCR are doing so well. Coffee is down 60%!
Curious as to how HSY got to $90 p/s? Look no further than the price of cocoa and sugar down 30%.
My guess, companies had some hedges against the rise in commodity prices. But they’re probably going to lighten up on them now, since there isn’t any pressure on raw materials. If this trend continues, miners and farmers enter the fag box and never leave. Manufacturers will see their margins explode, even grocery stores stand to benefit. Look at NGVC as of late.
If timber comes in, residential construction will benefit, as well as makers of furniture. The fact that cotton is down 25% helps retailers and clothing manufacturers, just like a lower price of oil and distillates helps truckers and shippers.
Make no mistake, lower natty and coal is by design, a great tax cut for the unwashed American pleb shopping for broccoli at Walmart.
Wheat and corn have been weak, helping chicken companies like PPC and SAFM. There are so many benefits to lower input prices it’s hard to isolate a single idea. I think it’s fair to say it’s a gigantic boon for the entire country. We’ve been blessed with cheap coal and natural gas, now everything else is getting cheap.
I just got back from a celebratory lunch, tasting menu with wine pairs, at once of Princeton’s finest eateries. I hope you can appreciate the good fortune that I’ve experienced today with FRO. Being able to sell 500,000 shares into an upswing, fully liquid, is a gift, one that I couldn’t look in the face and ignore.
With part of the proceeds, I went long YGE; the rest is in cash.
My largest positions are IMMR, YELP and AMBA. I know the market will trade up, so I am not too worried about booking profits.
The market looked dicey for awhile, but roared back like the lion that is is. I am almost fully invested and will be looking for another fresh idea this evening. I like NILE, but the shares are too thinly traded. BX and APO are good, but offer limited upside returns. The reason why I went heavy into YGE is for the upside potential. Since I am up so much, I can afford to take risk.
I was up 5% for the day, plastic manning my way to +32% for the year. Despite all of the tests, Le Fly is pissing on his competition from atop a summit, defecating on those who try to sneak up from behind (no homo).
I am up more than 5% today, setting new records, new annual highs in the process– up 32% for the year. I sold more than 500,000 shares of FRO today because I needed to divest a little. I will hold another 700,000 shares until my prophecies come to fruition.
With the market soaring ahead of the Fed, I think it’s fair to assume “tapering” isn’t part of the Bernanke playbook. We should continue to make new highs, unless of course earnings, or lack thereof, derail us. I did not like the news out of TEX today.
With today’s gains in the SPY, we are about flat for the month of June. There isn’t anything wrong with selling to take profits. But just know, better men than you are 100% long, strong, unafraid of the horrors that may or may not hang in the balance.
Your gender is suspect.
Solar is where it’s at because of fundamentals. These companies are smashing earnings expectations and guiding higher. Plus, it has the attention of the degenerate momentum crowd. I love YGE up to $4.
“The Fly’ is all about winning and has decided to continue to do so for the duration of 2013.
Off to go buy 20 diamond encrusted gold chains and 200 pairs of Air Jordan’s with my FRO winnings.
It looks like my FRO is getting a serious blow out today. Apparently, the other Frontline, the one that trades in Oslo, was up more than 20% today. I can only surmise good news was released.
Still checking.
UPDATE: I sold 300,000 shares of FRO. I am still holding another 900,000.
I am not sure if Ben has children or had enough social skills to “acquire” a wife by now. Nonetheless, I’d like to wish him a very warm father’s day from the House of iBankCoin, for his selfless, yet domineering, position as “Daddy to All”–as far as money and economic stimulus is concerned.
Thanks to “Father Ben”, us Wall Streeters enjoy many fruits from his laborious labors. Just today I was able to purchase the very latest LED-LCD teevee on the market, along with a state of the art sound system, thanks to Benjamin Bernanke.
Thanks Dad!
Next week I am having 10 trees removed, stumps removed too, from my property and having a few oaks planted, along with 10 mature boxwood bushes.
Thanks Dad!
Finally, next week Mrs. Fly intends to purchase some new hardwood flooring for a few rooms upstairs, along with some base moulding.
I hate when the market gets fixated on one thing and pins its hopes to it. Remember when the market couldn’t go up without AAPL? Or how about the price of oil and copper? Whenever commodities went down, we died. Or how about the dollar and the euro?
Need I remind you about Italian/Spanish yields or Greek tragedies?
The panic button for the moment is the Japanese yen. We can’t do anything without first looking at the exchange rates of the yen. Try being a professional money manager, then telling your clients how stupid everyone else is for behaving in such a manner. After a while, it starts to sound like mental illness, psychotic behavior coming from an ego-maniac.
These days I just go along with the flow, acknowledging the ‘great risks’ to the system without even a hint of cynicism.
As it so happens, I am flat for the day, thanks to AMBA, YELP and FRO. I know IMMR is cheap, so I am not concerned about today’s decline. The world is ending, after all, what do you expect to happen to your stocks?
I suggest reading iBankCoin over the weekend. The Option Addict, Chess, Rc, Myself and others will have a lot of things to say about the current state of things. Naturally, everything hinges on the economic experiment being conducted in Tokyo.
Make sure to watch the teevee on sunday night and monitor asian trade. If Japan brushes it off and trades up, we are going to punch scrotums into the open of trade on monday.
There is a wall of worry to climb and I know just the institution that intends to do it.
We aren’t going to sell off because that’s not what we do. There is a lot of anti-American rhetoric going on these days. You must admit, we’ve never been more powerful. The American dynasty is at its pinnacle of power, evidenced by our superfluous stock exchange.
I’m still talking my book. Today’s favorite positions are YELP, IMMR and AMBA. HOV looks good too.
