Have you ever heard of the phrase ‘blow off top?’
In terrific fashion, markets reversed higher this morning following moderate losses. After the rogue degeneracy of small capped traders was laid bare in front of the world to see, the muppet masters pulled the rug and we’re now descending into hell.
I will reiterate my position that the correct trade is to sell here. Timing tops is a very hard thing to do, much more than bottoms. Despair and fear are actionable against because they dissipate and are counter to the basic human emotion that is optimism. Trying to time tops, however, is equal to knowing when a sociopath with stop making friends, a whore pulling new tricks or a savage army of zealots deciding to make peace. Betting against human excess and their right to MOAR is hard. That’s my point.
Nevertheless, and I hate to sound cliche here, but no one ever got hurt taking profits or leaving the party early. You can, however, find yourselves in grave danger waiting until the end of the party, when all of the drunkards quarrel with one another, trying to shoot each other in the face for stepping on each other’s shoes.
I’d be a net seller here in every way imaginable, save treasuries.
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Good call, but as always time will tell.
What do you make of the run in commodity prices? Shorts covering? Real growth? Manipulation?
a new bull market has begun.
Fade it
Agreed. Confidence is rising too fast.
More of a puppet-on-a-string type confidence.
Respectfully disagree here, Fly. Markets are never going down again.
The drama.
It is time for a reality check.
selling is the hardest part. so hard to stop while the going is still good. but it is also the most important part.
Can you forward this memo to the other indices? thanks
the bear hunt must continue
Nymph Checklist, cuz the only thing that can hurt us Bears are Central Bankers. BoJ, last night Kuroda said he was only hold and JPM agrees…so no action at March Meeting, have to wait until July. ECB..So many huge predictions Thursday, Tier Systems, 10-30 cut, addition to QE, Extending QE…Germany Bond has priced in so much. Can Draghi REALLY Surprise too much especial with the beating that Japan got after they went to Negative Rates. USA..Raising not Lowering. Australia left rates, but more likely to raise. China broke the hearts of Many over no major Stimulus and the clamping down of Peer to Peer on buying houses. Also PEOPLE, China is closing Mills starting late April, there is a crazy rush to produce as much product as possible…but once they hit there 195ish Million of Tons of Iron Ore, there is TOTALLY no use for it. So this Nymph only has Draghi left to worry about.
Don Coxe – you may not know who he is- said that the real money isn’t made by reading/following the headlines, its made by the story on p. 54….
Bear markets make people a lot of money. They just don’t know it at the time.
it’s a nate diaz market
its a traders paradise…..