iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,264 Blog Posts

Enjoy the Bounce—For it Will Be Short Lived

With today’s move up, I lost 0.10%. Gee, I wonder how I will recover from such carnage.

Please help.

Without doubt, the [[IBM]] news was exactly what the bulls needed. The shorts ran for cover, while natural buyers stepped into ag, hard.

Aside from ag, other commodity related names were hot, particularly in basic resources.

With financials about to lose a fresh round of billions, I am contemplating bulking up my [[SKF]] position.

Frankly, the only thing that will change my bearish sentiment is blowout numbers, amongst the retailers.

I don’t care about tech, ag, energy or industrials—just retail. The economic health of Joey Bag-o-Donuts is vital for this markets recovery. Without him, we’re just running on fumes, waiting to get car jacked, then rolled on with our own vehicles.

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20 comments

  1. Juice

    Baby Bear Fly; Papa Bear Kass is shorting the SKF, iow, he likes the financials here

    so what you may say? he’s a former bank Anal-lyst

    so what you may say?

    If you hate retail, short commercial real estate via SRS or short SLG SPG TCO PLD etc … there will be many storefront vacancies coming soon to a retail real estate reit near you

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  2. sysin3

    Fly,

    You’re far too bullish 😉 The Great Depression might look like Disneyland when all this financial voodoo comes undone.

    Hope not, but there is not a soul on this planet who knows how this shit shakes out.

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  3. Johnny Bag of Donuts
    Johnny Bag of Donuts

    Go long the ags.

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  4. The Fly

    Kass is dead wrong.

    He’s been correct the whole time and now is trying to get cute by playing both sides of the tape.

    He will certainly die a painful death.

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  5. Kass' Yoda

    Wishing a painful death on Kass, you should not.

    Kass, right he is. Douchebag, sir, you are.

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  6. ottnott

    Kass is being foolish.

    Star QB Citibank came out of the game with compound fractures in both femurs. Now that a doctor has come along and put the legs in casts, Kass thinks that we should believe that Citibank is going back in the game.

    It is on the sidelines, along with all the other banged up financials. A company laying off 20,000 people is not a company ready to help the economy grow.

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  7. Bearonidus, Son of Shorticus
    Bearonidus, Son of Shorticus

    You all bore me with your talk of market up or market down.

    I have much wine stored up in vats for the festival of Bacchus. Many young maidens will be there. Off I go to quench my insatiable thrist for wine, women and song.

    Do not mock me lest you be turned into a pillar of dung and spread out on the earth as fodder.

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  8. Steve

    We’ll bounce then the fools will add to their short positions or go to cash thinking they got so lucky for this second chance to get out, we’ll retest the lows again and then boom, up, up and away for the rest of the year. Bears are dead.

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  9. big snacks

    bought some gdx puts today as well as some chl puts.. these golds are way to extended and chl is not trading right

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  10. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    Bearonidus,

    Your mother, the succubus, said she wants her goats back.

    What have I told you about that?

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  11. Cap

    Ken Fisher thinks the market will go up this year. http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0128/106.html

    Fisher is never wrong. This guy has achieved annualised returns of 4% over the last 10 years. 4% ! Thats incredible. You can’t bet against a person of his stature.

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  12. Juju bear

    Ken is a douchebag. He has doubled down on Japan within the last 12 months. What a retard. No wonder his returns are low single digit. How in the heck does a guy like that get $30 B to manage?

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  13. Cap

    Fly,

    Correct me if I’m wrong but since you’re down 0.10% today and the market finished up, then its likely that your neighbours 401K finished up. So your neighbour banked more coin than you 🙂

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  14. JakeGint

    Juju–

    Marketing.

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  15. The Fly

    One of my clients has like 7 million with Ken Fisher.

    That guy sucks (my client and Ken).

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  16. Cap

    Fisher’s old man was a great trader/investor. Clients probably figured in Ken’s case that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree – they were dead wrong in this case.
    Ken Fisher is too diversified. I believe he has over 200 different positions. How do you make money with over 200 different stocks in your portfolio ?

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  17. calvino

    The Piper Jackoff play turned into bad sex for me today.. and I’m going to hold the crm short a little while before it can show me that it doesn’t need a pre-anouncement of the strength of the global markets to get a dollar fifty. The tape rolled over by 10:30, but then, like a friggin miracle, all the played out last year rallies, bidu, fslr, crm get reborn out Piper’s asshole. This shit is not going to roll two ways up the hill. Either Gupta and little Wu are going to be rich and bid up a bowl of rice til they can’t afford to buy a computer to steal any more copyrighted shit, or they are broke and can’t afford a computer. Make up your sick mind Hank.

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  18. Sierra Water

    This below exerpt is the only reason Fisher is Bullish. I’ll post article tonight that will show why people who follow the likes of Ken Fisher may go BK in 2008-2009.

    ” Money manager Ken Fisher’s latest book is The Only Three Questions That Count (John Wiley, 2007). Visit his homepage at http://www.forbes.com/fisher. “

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  19. Ian

    I have to side with The FLY. It all comes down to the economic numbers — PPI and CPI. Earnings will only set short-term direction. If the CPI blows, the Fed will cut like crazy and we will still fall after some sort of bounce. If the numbers come in within expectations we will have to live in no-man’s land for a month before the CPI does fall. Seems like the market has had enough shorting of financials based on write downs and surprises, but if (more probably when) the consumer stops spending, there will be another round of selling. Looks like the FLY may win shorting China as well, but it could be weeks or months away.

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  20. Wang Hung Lo

    Fluck dat shit. China wiew kick yaw ass if you sholt it.

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