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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

This is America, Baby

We’re not going out like this, under the weight of some sub-prime driven credit crisis. When it’s all said and done, we’ll be back to producing meaningless nuclear submarines, throwing firecrackers at one another and producing monstrous trucks for the road, in no time at all.

Hell, Americans are an egregious breed of human. We like our beer cold and our mortgage loans dangerous.

Nowhere else in the world will you find lunatic roller coasters jam packed with people willing to die, in order to enjoy a 2 minute thrill.

We’re risk takers; it’s what we do best. Bitch and moan all you want about the “Wall Street gangsters.” But remember, it’s gangsters like that who took a gamble on “Joey Bag O Credit Cards,” by giving him a loan to buy a Mcmansion.

Sure, they got greedy, but who isn’t?

Who else would finance that stupid bitch down the block, who desperately needed a 7th coach bag?

See, don’t blame Main Streets addiction to vanity on Wall Street. The bankers that you all despise were providing a service, which was encouraged by the Government. The Government encourages us to spend all the time. Following 9/11, their message to us was to be alert and go shopping.

After this crisis passes, America will be forced to tighten its belt, since the banks will be saddled with stringent regulations. No big deal. It is the end of excess.

However, regarding the equity markets:

They’re just giving stocks away. The valuations on some names are just absurd. Sometime tonight, I will compile a top 10 “if the world doesn’t end, here’s what I am buying” list.

For all you margin call lovers, I have news:

Asshole, we were down more than 25% at one point last week. The margin selling has been done. Don’t overshoot to the downside, like you overshot to the upside, thinking the Dow was going to 15,000 and shit.

Measure your emotions and place trades with discipline.

As for me, I’ll be on Wall Street tomorrow— smacking bearshitters in the face with hot slices of pizza.

UPDATE: Asian markets set to rip out of the gates.

UPDATE II: Here is my “if the world doesn’t end, this is what I’m buying” top 10 list, broken down by the 10 principal sectors. Note: the weightings will remain a secret. So Sorry.

Financials: Deutsche Bank AG (USA) [[DB]]

Industrials: The Mosaic Company [[MOS]]

Technology: Apple Inc. [[AAPL]]

Consumer Staples: The Procter & Gamble Company [[PG]]

Consumer Discretionary: [[M]]

Energy: National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]]

Healthcare: Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]]

Materials: United States Steel Corporation [[X]]

Telecom: NTT DoCoMo, Inc. (ADR) [[DCM]]

Utilities: PG&E Corporation [[PCG]]

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Sunday Night Jitters Reading List

Europe agrees to prevent a boot stomping of the banks

The key measures announced today are: a pledge to guarantee new bank debt issuance until the end of 2009; permission for governments to shore up banks by buying preferred shares; and a commitment to recapitalize any “systemically” critical banks in distress.

Fed’s Fisher says bank shorts will be flame broiled, shortly

“This morning I am casting that convention aside,” he said. “I speak for all of us when I say that the Federal Reserve will continue to explore every avenue and consider every option to see the credit markets through the credit crisis.”

Financial Crisis may hurt Nextel sale

According to a report on FT.com, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse recently questioned whether any potential buyer of the Nextel unit could raise the necessary capital to fund the purchase. That means the credit crunch could place any deal in jeopardy. No matter, said Hesse, who has vowed to continue improving the Nextel operation whether a buyer comes along or not.

CHK’s Slide was Not only Due to Stupid Margined Out CEO

Morgan Stanley is Chesapeake’s biggest counterparty. Morgan Stanley shares fell 39 percent, dropping for a fifth straight day, after Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut the investment bank’s credit rating. Allman said that if gas falls to $6 per thousand cubic feet, Chesapeake would have to sell $3.5 billion of assets. “In our view, getting through 2009 is tough, but Chesapeake has a lot of non-producing assets it could sell and discretionary spending it could cut,” Allman said.

Deposit Insurance Varies Amongst Nations

Until the latest statements suggesting unlimited guarantees, legal coverage was highest in Norway, France, Italy and Mexico. In the US the amount covered has been raised temporarily to $250,000 from $100,000 per account.

Luigi Zingales Weighs in on G7 Package

Time has come for the Treasury secretary to listen to some economists. By understanding the causes of the current crisis, we can help solve it without relying on public money. Thus, I feel it is my duty as an economist to provide an alternative: a market-based solution, which does not waste public money and uses the force of the government only to speed up the restructuring. It may not be perfect, but it is a viable avenue that should be explored before acquiescing to the perceived inevitability of Paulson’s proposals.

GM May Merge With Other U.S. Carmakers, Before Going Out of Business

After Ford decided to remain independent amid an increasingly difficult auto market, G. M. turned its attention to Chrysler. For the last month, it has been in preliminary merger talks with Chrysler’s owner, the private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management.

Japan May Offer 1 Trillion in FX Reserves to IMF Rescue Plan

Although Asia and other emerging economies have so far avoided largely the worst of the credit crisis sparked by burst of bubble in U.S. housing markets, deepening woes in Western financial markets are now infecting robust growth in many emerging economies.

Europe: No Bank Shall Fail

“The crisis has over the past few days entered into a phase that makes it intolerable to opt for procrastination and a go-it-alone approach.”

Fannie/Freddie Ordered to Buy 40 Billion in Bad Mortgages, Per Month

The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion bailout plan, which was signed into law earlier this month, Bloomberg noted.

Lehman CDS Settlement May Bankrupt the Entire Banking Industry

“If we see defaults from the standpoint that protection sellers don’t pay up, then we’re going to have a huge problem in the market,” Telpner said. “But we don’t have any explicit evidence indicating that sellers ultimately are not going to be able to pay the amounts owed to buyers.”

Israeli Stocks Pare Losses After Steep Drop

In the first 20 minutes of trading the main index briefly dropped by 8.59 percent to 729.40 points, reflecting falls in world markets that took place over the long Yom Kippur holiday weekend.

Soros: Morgan Stanley Needs Government Rescue

The Treasury should match the Japanese company’s injection by acquiring preferred stock that converts to shares at a price higher than Mitsubishi UFJ’s purchase price, Soros wrote in the column, published today on the Web.

Gas to Drop To $3.00 Per Gallon

Trilby Lundberg, publisher of the nationwide Lundberg Survey of gasoline prices, said the average price for self-serve unleaded across the United States dropped to $3.31 a gallon — the largest drop in the six-decade history of her survey. “This could be one the largest drops in history,” Lundberg said.

Hedge Funds Fell 4.68% in September

The HFRI Weighted Composite Index fell 4.68 percent in September, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and extending the loss this year to 9.41 percent, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. The worst monthly performance since the firm began tracking the industry in 1990 was an 8.7 percent decline in August 1998.

Democrats Want Another Massive Stimulus Plan

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week said a $150 billion economic stimulus plan was needed to help counteract a faltering economy shaken by a paralyzed banking system and steep stock market falls.

Cramer is an Idiot

The Dow could go as low as 5,886, he said.

Buffett Legging into More BNI

Warren Buffett sells another 1.95 million shares of put options of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) on Oct. 8, two days after he sold 1.3 million shares on Oct. 6, as the latest filings of Berkshire Hathaway shows.

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Weekend Thoughts

Most of you are drama queen mother fuckers. If any of you expressed yourselves, in such a bitch-like defeatist manner, to me, in person, I’d have a dog bite your fucking face off, mustache and all.

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Onyx – Shout

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wb_cxfyOMw&feature=related 450 300]

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Bulls Win

Today was the longest trading day of my career. I can’t take this shit anymore. Down 700, up 300, back to down 200; this is madness. Oh, scratch that, this is Wall Street, home of the idiot.

The carnage in the energy sector is a direct result of prime brokerages blowing out bullshit hedge funds. National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] and Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]] have pristine balance sheets. They do not belong down here. Consider these prices a gift, despite the fact that the gift keeps giving.

The assholes at Moody’s need to be imprisoned and charged with conspiracy to destroy America. How can they threaten to downgrade Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , after getting it wrong for the past, oh I don’t know, forever?

The good news, at least for me, my largest position, [[UYG]] , closed up. I have been buying, while feeling like killing people, all day long. God willing, I will be rewarded for my courage, sometime soon.

Today’s buys included: General Electric Company [[GE]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[UKK]] , Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , [[UYG]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]], [[TBT]] , [[ROM]] and Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]] .

For the love of God, our moronic leaders need to secure inter-bank lending ASAP.

The grounds have been sewn for a massive melt up. Now we have to pray something “exogenous” doesn’t fuck things up Sunday night.

UPDATE: As you know, the Godly folks from iBC are scheduled to launch “The PPT” on 10/28, providing I am still alive. If you are long, you will happy to know our stock ranking models now have sell recommendations on all inverse etf’s

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How ‘Bout a Late Day Rally

Shorts are running for fear of a Sunday night deballing.

Here’s the kicker:

Who will win today’s end of day battle?

Longs trying to get long ahead of a potential Sunday night surprise; or, shorts who are banking on a liquidation of Morgan Stanley [[MS]] ?

And, will margin selling outstrip short covering?

My money is on the evisceration of the old bearshitters.

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I Hate Stocks

Thus far, my day has been filled with utter anxiety, mixed with panic and greed. I am hitting on all emotions here, as I try to figure out a way out of this calamity.

The game plan is simple:

DO NOT GET SHAKEN OUT. I am not leveraged and have been deploying new monies into equities. As a matter of fact, I have been raising new money (something I hate doing), in order to buy this terrorist market.

I understand the risks at hand. Hell, we can close at the lows today and get gorilla stomped on Tuesday. However, I have firm belief in buying when the streets are flowing with blood.

My buy list includes: [[UYG]] , General Electric Company [[GE]] , Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] , Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and [[TBT]] .

In my opinion, the safest play is TBT. Eventually, yields have to go higher. If equities rebound, people with sell treasuries to buy stocks. On the other hand, if foreign banks take their money out of treasuries, yields will soar, sending TBT through the fucking roof. A win-win, if you will.

The risks to the market lie with Morgan Stanley [[MS]] , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , General Motors Corporation [[GM]] , Ford Motor Company [[F]] and the bizarre action in select energy stocks, like Chesapeake Energy Corporation [[CHK]] .

In short, my time horizon is longer term than most and I am willing to endure a painful downslope. If you are risk adverse, go take a walk in the park and feed the birds.

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Wall Street is a Fucking Ghetto

People are getting killed out there. We had daylight for a minute, then that bullshit Lehman CDS auction data came out. Naturally, CNBC is repeating the negatives every 3 seconds. They really do know how to stoke a little fear.

Then we have the dire situation at Morgan Stanley [[MS]] . Frankly, people do not believe they will get funding. How absurd is that?

Personally, I feel like my heart is going to explode. I have a few things going up; but it’s just too fucking volatile.

My favorite places to put cash right now is in The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and [[TBT]] . Ag seems to respond to rallies with great vigor. And treasuries are beginning to sell off. TBT gets you short.

The oils have been offered no respite, with unbelievable declines in all of them. There is no need to single out a name. It is carnage.

At the end of the day, it’s only money and personal net worth at stake. No biggie.

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 Citigroup Inc. [[C]] @ $13.10

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Man Up

I’m buying into this pigsty.

Fuck this. I am buying [[UYG]] , General Electric Company [[GE]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and [[ROM]] .

I am cleaning out my cash reserves and going 100% long.

A great man once said: “no balls, no babies.”

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