Don’t Fuck With Me

Let this be a reminder:

I don’t like you. Actually, ask anyone, I could care less about traffic or other things that measure a blogs success. For a long time, I never linked to anyone, because I don’t read other websites, mainly because they fucking suck. If you fuckers think I am relying on this site, in any shape of form, you are gravely mistaken. As fun as it is, I will shut this fucker down and guest blog on Howards website for the rest of my life, or until Howard dies.

I post my trades, for good or for worse, not to help you, but to entertain. Everyone loves a good train wreck or greatness. As you know, I am the latter. Unfortunately, since the market has cratered, there are many new readers on this site. These people have deformed faces and wreak of pig shit. They leave dumber than normal comments and think, for some reason, that I give a fuck.

Listen up: I don’t.

As for the market:

I will not sell into this commodity rout. However, I did blow out of the banks. I didn’t sell [[UYG]] because I thought it was going significantly lower. It’s simple math.

Should the market feel the need to retest the lows, the banks are going down. Now, my gut says we go higher, so it’s kind of counter-intuitive. But, with the markets this weak, and my gains north of 40% for the year, I had to hedge.

With my remaining cash, I will complete my final round of buys into The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , at lower prices.

I am having my hair lit aflame, by idiots who think the world is ending, and you fuckers think it’s funny?

So the market likes to crash every other day; it’s into that sort of thing. After all, everything is “unprecedented” and entirely “historical.”

Look assholes, buying National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] are ultra contrarian plays. Anyone who thought there was no risk, buying a stock down 70%+ from its highs is a fucking imbecile.

Aside from this wonderful oasis of internet fuckery, “The Fly” has real issues to deal with, such as my fucking head being lit aflame by NOV and MOS, not to mention [[UYG]] .

So, pardon me if I am not able to tell you fuckers to go fuck yourselves in the comments section. Just know, that I would tell you that, after any bullshit comments that you may leave.

Back to my gameplan of chasing shit down rabbit holes:

The action in commodities is as bad as you can get, as you know. They are all hitting new lows and all hope is lost, especially with the underlying commodities tanking.

Holding the fort, at least for today, is clearly idiotic. Although I hate to do it, I may force my hand to reduce risk, via applying my cash position into hedges. It makes sense for me, since I still have big gains. As for you: go eat a sandwich.

UPDATE: I sold out of my entire [[UYG]] position and rolled it into [[SKF]]

Clarification: In order to stop the bleeding and act somewhat responsible, I ate a small loss in UYG and went long [[SKF]] , in size. Also, I have a 25% cash position, ready to deploy by the end of the session. Regardless of what I want to happen or think, this fucker is nose diving, on a global scale. So, it makes sense to keep my destroyed commodities, while getting short a few bad banks. If I am top ticking SKF here, it is acceptable, since my longs will protect the upside. In short, I am late, but not stupid.

The banks get all of the spotlight, because of the systemic repercussions of a failure. However, anyone in the business of investing knows the crumble of commodities has been far more pervasive and damaging to the investor.

The fuckery in the banks was telegraphed, long before the debacle. This commodity nose dive came out of left field, effectively fucking the entire investment community and other unsavory folks too.

Look at the charts of The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] or Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] and you will vomit on top of your keyboard. It’s that hideous.

The only way to compare this popped bubble, in my opinion, is to the dot coms, circa 2000-2003.

Without a doubt: the exponential rally in commodities and commodity shares is over. But that does not mean we can’t have fun, before they enter the stock market cemetery.

Go take a look at Cisco Systems, Inc. [[CSCO]] , between the years 00-02. Not only will you find a harrowing decline in its shares, you will also find sharp rallies, especially in the months of Oct-December.

So, to sum things up:

I intend to play the bouncing, already popped, bubble, before shorting it to its death. I want to be clear about my intentions, which by no means is one of a gentleman.

I am just trying to play the percentages. And, right now, my “calculator brain” says to get long prior to Halloween, and get ready to blow out near Thanksgiving.

At least the market isn’t dropping like it was being raped, while its hair was aflame. Much to my chagrin, the market is declining like a gentleman, if such a thing exists. I envision some guy, holding the market levers, slowly lowering this fucker over a fine Chardonnay.

Naturally, the shareholders of some of my positions would beg to differ, from such a deranged, yet poignant argument. I, on the other hand, do not believe this decline is “healthy,” like idiots espouse on television boxes. However, I do believe we are in the midst of a process. The market is cleansing itself of weak links, while “gorilla stomping” those who have faith in equities.

It’s quite the conundrum.

Once again, the flight to quality into t-bills is running wild, even after LIBOR and TED spreads have eased. This makes no sense.

The new focus is the economy. Gosh darnit, just when you thought the market was set to trade up, the fucking economy gets in the way.

Here’s the thing:

The economy is going to be weak, for at least another 5-9 months. But, as many of you stock market lovers know, usually, the market bottoms out 6 months prior to an economic recovery. And, if I may be so bold, the markets always outperform during the months of Nov-December.

My plans, as always, is to get long into Thanksgiving, short into Christmas. I am not entirely sure where this market will stabilize. Hence, I have a 27% cash position. But, it will be soon and the buying opportunities will be grand, almost gentleman-like.

The fucking horror of it all is so frightening it’s actually funny, as a point in fact.

UBS this month advised bankers to travel economy class for flights of up to five hours, two officials at the biggest Swiss bank said, asking not to be identified because it’s an internal policy. Merrill employees have been asked to travel economy for flights of as much as three hours since mid-September, two executives at the firm said.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkGqSjH8kIo 450 300]

What a monstrous close, after the idiots on the NYSE gave us false hope with that mid-day rally. There is no way to sugar coat it. However, just know, it’s only one day. After all, we have “Skinny Steve” going for us, with his soon to be announced Godly earnings report at Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] .

I should have sold when the market bounced this afternoon, but I didn’t. No point in crying or shotting myself in the face with a howitzer over it. I can only figure out ways to make money tomorrow, not 2 hours ago.

Assholes.

On the bright side, all of today’s buys were executed near the lows of the day. So, if Mother Market is kind to Plutonium Petey, he’ll be blowing out of these commodity fuckers, with egregious gains, by the end of the week.

There are some bright spots in the market, like General Electric Company [[GE]] and Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] . But who gives a fuck about them.

Right now, it’s all about the state of Steve Jobs and how many soy burgers that fucker has been eating, over the last quarter. God willing, Steve will appear to be quite the plumper, helping stocks rip off the fucking whigs of asshole short sellers, first thing tomorrow morning.

Poof. Your bullshit bear market rally is over.

-Merlin

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6npuEdett-E 450 300]

Let this be a lesson to you fuckers.

I have been buying 250 share lots of National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , like a hypnotized inflation hawk. While it’s true, inflation is virtually non existent, commodity stocks are still cheap. These fuckers will bounce all around, before dying—just like the dot coms, circa 2001.

My position in Citigroup Inc. [[C]] is sucking wind, but that’s okay. I am long from the 13’s and view it as a long term hold, sort of a proxy for the distressed banking system.

With reference to my top 10 positions, some of those positions are not very big, considering my cash position is around 28%. The only meaningful positions are The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and [[UYG]] .

With regards to Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] :

Investors are thinking AAPL will RIMM itself to death tonight. However, I believe those people are idiots and do not realize the tenacity and nazi-like management skills of “Skinny Steve.” I’m holding my AAPL through earnings.

All in all, today’s pullback is healthy, providing the losses remain under 3%. I’m not a fucking perma-bull. I’m more like a temporary bull, with a keen interest in kicking old bearshitters down idle elevator shafts, while guzzling down a few liters of Monster Energy soda.

Top picks: National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[UYG]]

UPDATE: I bought 5,000 Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] @ $25.32, 2,000 [[NOV]] @ $30.15 and 2,000 [[MOS]] @ $37.20