God Save the Fed

Ben Bernanke and company saved the economy from assured collapse in 2008. Many of you— libertarian brain-dead type— hate the Fed and their money printing ways, for a variety of “independent” reasons. However, when thinking about what the Fed did, ask yourself this question:

If you were diagnosed with terminal cancer and was given 3 months to live, unless you took an experimental drug that could prolong your life indefinitely, what would you choose, death or hope?

It really is that simple. Argue all you want about the banks mugging people in broad daylight or how Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] fucked Earth something awful. You know damn well, during the height of the credit crisis, when shipping rates plunged 99%, fuckers were going to start starving then rioting. Call me crazy, but I prefer an orderly death, to the tune of 80%+ personal (long only) stock market gains.

I bought 10,000 Lennar Corporation [[LEN]] @ $12.60.

Disclaimer: If you buy LEN because of this post, someone will steal all of your gold bars when you are fast asleep. And, you may lose money.

“The Fly,” with the begrudging help of his underlings, has been preparing for a BROKEN ROBOT X-MAS trading session. I declared: “The fucking robots are going to break down ok, PREPARE for that eventuality.” People just sort of looked at me like “WTF should I do now?” It pains me that no one else sees the writing on the wall. “Thank God for KING COCK,” famous words spoken by many at the dinner table.

America needs capital gains. The government wants you to swim in gains, until 12/31/09, so that they can take a percentage of them from you during tax season. They are going to throw the kitchen sink AND MORE at this market, in the name of generating revenue.

Let it be no surprise iBankCoiners, when the fucking robots break down for X-mas, you will know what to do.

Personally, I’ve established positions in shoddy retailers, like Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , mainly because there are scores of people—and I mean scores, short the name for the holidays. ‘Tis not the season to be short, fa la la, la la, la, la la la la or some shit.

At the moment, my Chinese slavery plays, [[YONG]] and [[HEAT]] are taking a breather; but that’s okay. They don’t believe in X-mas anyway. We’ll worry about them later.

For now, I must embrace positions like ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] , Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]] , Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] , Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] , Flowserve Corporation [[FLS]] and even U.S. Global Investors, Inc. [[GROW]] , because Santa Claus is a big fan of said names.

Okay, “The Fly” must go now. He has many things to do and people to belittle, in real life.

See you Sears suckers in about 2-3 hours.

UPDATE: A word on gold.

Get your Sears suit for Christmas dinner, sucker.

Disclosure: Long Sears Holdings Corporation [[SHLD]]

Highest Ranked Sector in The PPT: Home Health care. Components include: Amedisys, Inc. [[AMED]] , Almost Family, Inc. [[AFAM]] , Chemed Corporation [[CHE]] , Gentiva Health Services, Inc. [[GTIV]] , LHC Group, Inc. [[LHCG]] and Lincare Holdings Inc. [[LNCR]]

Top 5 ETF’s: Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund [[KYE]] , Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. [[TYG]] , Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund [[JFR]] , [[KOL]] and [[EWW]]

Top 5 ranked Dow components: Hewlett-Packard Company [[HPQ]] , 3M Company [[MMM]] , The Walt Disney Company [[DIS]] , United Technologies Corporation [[UTX]] and [[MCD]]

Bottom 5 ranked stocks: Bank of Ireland (ADR) [[IRE]] , Theravance, Inc. [[THRX]] , Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. [[LBAI]] , [[MII]] , Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc. [[SASR]]

Lowest ranked sector: Surety and Title Insurance. Components include: Ambac Financial Group, Inc. [[ABK]] , MBIA Inc. [[MBI]] , Stewart Information Services Corporation [[STC]] , The PMI Group, Inc. [[PMI]] , MGIC Investment Corp. [[MTG]] , [[RDN]] and Old Republic International Corporation [[ORI]]

“The Fly” has a prior engagement, so I am the fuck out of here.

I thought the “dollar slaves” could muster the courage to trade against the grain; but they’re not ready yet. Nevertheless, the markets response to dollar strength is relatively muted. As an aside, the people who wear burlap sacks to work sold banks with great vigor, based upon the certainty of dilution, as banks raise capital to get out from under TARP. This is a natural market reaction. Do not read more into it.

As of 3:33pm, most of my stocks are green. Thankfully, the few that are down are not really down at all. They’re just playing around and shit, bobbing as I weave.

Essentially, life is all about kicking your neighbor in the nuts when he least expects it. With that motif in mind, I intend on kicking you square in the nuts when you expect it most.

Top picks: you know what they are, so fuck off.

I sold out of W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] —too stubborn.

I initiated a position in Flowserve Corporation [[FLS]] , buying 2,000 @ $98.80. In addition, I bought 5,000 [[YONG]] @ $8.45, 5,000 ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] in the $17.80’s, 2,000 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] in the $65.60’s and 2,000 ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] in the $35.20’s.

Disclaimer: Don’t follow me into these stocks for I am speed chopping carrots, with my balls laid out on the kitchen table.

The dollar is ripping higher today, yet stocks are yawning it off. Is it possible for stocks to rally, as the dollar strengthens? Sure, why the fuck not?

If real growth can take hold in the U.S., the reflation story will take a back seat and equities will trade based on fundamentals again, not some absurd “death to the dollar” scenario. However, I will admit, people are sort of mind fucked when it comes to the dollar/equity relationship, which may initially jar stocks, as the death to the dollar trade unwinds. The dollar carry trade has been ongoing for a very short period of time and will likely be unwound, slowly, overtime. I do not think the dollar is due to spike higher. I am just laying out a scenario where it stops going down, and stocks still go higher, nonetheless.

If this scenario unfolds, the worst possible investment will be gold. It will feel like dot comville, April 2000, for the doom and gloom gold buggers.

With my money, I much rather buy coffee machines, via Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , or something easy like [[HEAT]] and CGG Veritas (ADR) [[CGV]] .

Bottom line: we are running downhill now, without sneaker or socks. This is a long only market and it should be treated as such.

The internet has provided the illusion that you, the retail superstar, enjoy an “even playing field.” You visit yahoo, stocktwits, briefing, and a variety of other sites, thinking “oh, gee, I am now well informed.” When in fact, you are doing nothing more than mirroring another person’s swagger. After reading shit on a screen, you come here to give me advice, as if I need it. Would you fuckers give golf or orgy advice to Tiger Woods? Don’t offer “The Fly” financial advice, for he will spit in your face for doing so.

On this dip, I like ICICI Bank Limited (ADR) [[IBN]] and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] . Or, I want more of the #1 ranked stock on The PPT, and position of mine, ATP Oil & Gas Corporation [[ATPG]] .

Into strength, I like Chinese slavery plays, like [[HEAT]] , [[YONG]] and China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd. [[STV]] .

Into the end of the fucking year, I am long, without regrets or second guesses. I am long because it is the high probability play. I am long because you are skeptical and because banking coin is in my blood. You can just watch me, while I stack these coins to the roof.

Just in case you are listening to bearish bores, who incessantly flood the market with misinformation, these are the facts:

The banks are not good investments, mainly because they are impaired. Some of them do better than others. However, for the most part, in recent months, they have been a waste of time. With that being said, thanks to a variety of reasons, there is a distinct chance they will explode to the upside shortly, fueled by people who are leaning the wrong way.

Commodity related stocks are trending higher for two reasons: real growth in Asia and dollar weakness. At some point, the dollar will stop going lower, which will kneecap the price of gold. However, if growth continues to strengthen, industrial commodities will continue to be bought in size.

Technology stocks have led the way higher, during this recent bull stampede. In total, corporations have more than $800 billion in cash, which can be used for mergers and acquisitions, dividends, buybacks or rainy day accounts. It is my belief, at the moment, we will see m&a activity explode into mid 2010, offering a new catalyst for higher stocks.

Frankly, you need to understand, what worked yesterday may not work tomorrow. Basing your investment philosophy around the dollar is stupid. Granted, it has been an effective indicator, especially over the last 6 months or so. However, over time, stocks decouple from currencies and trade on fundamentals.

If you are wondering what will drive stocks higher over the next two weeks, I will tell you: Santa Claus/end of year window dressing. If you are curious about what can drive equities higher over the next three months, I will tell you: m&a activity, share buybacks and continued improvement in the economy, including employment. If you want a 6-12 mo prediction, go visit a fucking psychic; because that shit is all guess work.

Fun Fact, courtesy of JPM: Out of the last 19 bull markets lasting 9 months or more, 95% of them continued to trade higher over the next 12 months.