A DEAR WARNING FROM AN OLD SOUTHERN DEAD GUY

“Let  me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives, you may win southern independence, but I doubt it. The north is determined to preserve this union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates, but when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche, and what I fear is that they will overwhelm the South with ignoble defeat.”

BEAS,1861

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxDP6q6C5mE&feature=youtube_gdata_player 603 500]

Macabres rejoiced into the bell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial average down a staggering 130 points.  Investors ran for the exits in big cap names like AAPL, which was up just 0.4%. Oil, and other commodities of that genre, plunged amidst renewed concerns that Spain was filled with deadbeat spanish people and the Irish are still drunk and violent.

Memories of the bull market of just yesterday have faded and been replaced with the starkest visualizations known to mankind, such as BLACK SMOKE, CHARDS OF METAL and AAPL up just 0.4%.

As for me, I simply marked time, with heinous losses in MAS, CPST abundant and clear, but offset entirely by YELP.

Facebook bought Instagram for an outrageous valuation, resulting in a 40x profit for venture capitalists who funded it just last year (shout out to Phil Pearlman for nailing Instagram at iBC’s annual dinner last August). As a shareholder and fervent supporter of the superfluities of Howard Lindzon, I look forward to StockTwits being acquired for no less than $2 billion, over the next months or years to come.

Finally, iBC is looking to start investing in start-ups, mainly because we are flush with cash.

Times are tough for a Space Alien Magician (SAM). Gone are the days when people in wheeled chairs parked near open manholes. These days I find myself forced to exert energy to throw those fuckers to their “wheeled deaths.” And, the fucking stock market is fucking people again, with marksman precision.

http://youtu.be/oZbfuHJW8TQ

Facebook is buying Instagram for a billion and Instagram doesn’t do shit. Like real estate, the internet is all about acquiring the best properties, then killing your enemies with agonizing bankruptcies.

Top Websites in America, by Alexa.com

In  social media, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram are the dominant places where people converge to talk shit. Moving on, when it comes to reference, GOOG, Wikipedia, TRIP and Yelp are the dominant sites and apps that people use, in order to get smart. If you want to know about random shit, you go to GOOG for information. If it’s something specific, you type in ‘HORSESHIT wiki’ into google. And if you want information about restaurants or hotels, you go to Tripadvisor and Yelp.

When outside of some suspect eatery, pondering about delving inside for a quick bite, one might say ‘hey, YELP this restaurant to see if it’s any good.’

The future of this fucking civilization is getting access to information, from real people, in real time. With more than 67 million page views per month, Yelp ranks #42 in the United States. With regards to valuation, it’s foolish to put a multiple on something that is growing so fast (60%+) and that is likely to be acquired. Just a few years ago, YELP rebuffed several offers to sell for $500 million. Well, since then the company has grown quite a bit. In other words, there is a floor in the shares, likely at around $1 billion.

In my opinion, this can grow into a $5 billion dollar company. Once YELP expands globally and people catch on, this fucker is going to be off to the races and will not look back, roasting shorts–rotisserie style– along the way.

NOTE: I added to my YELP position today.

As the market and the economy softens, Benjamin Bernanke waits in the tall grass, smoking blunts filled with potent marijuana, exclaiming “I’m gonna get those bitches, just watch.”

I believe Ben gives a speech tonight and everyone is now chit-chattering about what the Fed will do come July. Will they do another ‘Operation Twist’ or maybe something a little more exotic this time around? Frankly and sincerely, the world wants and needs to know. The prospect of having to deal with the caprices of the overzealous and gluttonous bears, always wanting more out of their FAZmolbiles, is almost insufferable. These bears walk around town like pompous jackasses, flaunting their extraordinary wealth, embodying the virtues of prudent “mal-investment.”

“The Fly” once sat in the tall grass, waiting for a meal to come his way. Instead, he was lured out into the field with the rest of the zebras and now finds himself paranoid from whatever  lurks in his former hiding spot. I SHALL NOT fear losing a few millions. It’s simply paper that turns into dust, with a snap of the finger, then a memory.

As an aside, my real estate hunting is going quite poorly, as the market for desirable properties in NJ is extremely tight. Basically, if your home is updated and in a good location, it is selling within weeks. All of the other HORSESHIT, with kitchens dating back to 1986, are sitting on the market, fucking it up for the rest of the honorable people in need of property appreciation.

I foresee prices stabilizing very soon, then going up. There just isn’t enough quality on the market. Eventually, after all of the jackasses with disgusting bathrooms sell their homes for 20% below ask, the market will bottom and head north.

Just my two cents.

“Poof! Like magic, your fucking rally has vanished.”

-MERLIN

Hedonistic joy and ebullition is going to be exchanged for dark death and capital punishment. Very quickly and sweetly, equity markets are now in peril because we are not creating jobs fast enough. If I recall, this is the same HORSESHIT that graped stocks last year. Having said all of that, symmetry always reigns supreme, and I am bound to give back all of my gains, AND MORE, because that’s what the Gods want to happen.

See, I have no choice in the matter. No matter what I do or say, losses shall be had, because my life is designed through grit and hardship to make me a hardened, callous person. Sure, I throw old fuckers onto live electrical wires and men in “wheeled chairs” into idle sewer pipes. It’s not because I am a “bad man”, only because I am built to do such things. For example, many of you are programmed to celebrate the “zombie lifestyle” every Easter, going to church and making believe you’re all pious fuckers; when in fact, you are vagrants. I, on the other hand, enjoy to eat and play “find the hidden eggs” with my kids, purely a secular tradition.

But something very dark and ominous emerges, dear friends. I can only sense it through the deepest corners of my subconscious. YELP is only part of the punishment that I have been sentenced to. I gather from my increased arrhythmia, the whole lot of my holdings shall fall like Rome to barbarian hordes or Mexico to stupid.

The reality of the situation cannot be altered or changed, in any way. I cannot go back in time and change things because that would mess up the space-time continuum, thereby setting off a sequence of events that might render my life obsolete. Losses must be booked if the direction is lower. Being stubborn and failing to acknowledge a wrong position will only deepen the agony and make for a harder revival.

Get it?

Cheers to revivals on this easter sunday aka “zombie lifestyle” day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Sn6u5YPfZA

Do you build a company for growth with an exit in mind, or for profit? In the whimsical world of the internet, the former reigns supreme. We all see the venture money flowing freely and every programmer with an IQ north of 110 is trying to capture some of it. Personally, I find the whole VC business to be extremely distasteful. The way I see it, if you can’t fund yourself, you shouldn’t be in business.

Now don’t get me wrong. There are some capital intensive projects that requires backers. Without investors, we’d all be riding on fucking horses and living in log cabins. But the internet is more wasteful than you think. It is the embodiment of living above means. These little fuckers all want to be Facebook or Google. The truth is, Facebook is Facebook and you’re just a sales pitch.

From day 1 of iBankCoin, the stated goal was to build a profitable organization by catering to investors, doing so with style and a not give a fuck attitude–but always with grace of course. It’s that simple. We built products that are sold elsewhere for 10x what we retail it for, and do it better. We’re in the midst of building the second iteration of The PPT (our flagship product) and every detail is being thoroughly combed over, making sure it is met with satisfaction.

Some people ask me why I don’t raise money and expand iBankCoin. My answer to them is “how did that work out for the buttfuckers at TheStreet.com?”

The larger a company gets the more stilted it gets. It is my desire to keep iBC small, nimble, yet extraordinarily efficient. One of my appetites for growth is in news. With the elections and the Olympics around the corner, I know news is an area where growth could be had. I am willing to pay a decent salary to a workhorse who is interested in making a name for himself. That person has not been found yet.

The site has grown in traffic and scope since inception. We could be bigger if I would just stop saying “fuck”; but I don’t want to. It’s not what I’m about. Some of you get caught up with my stock picks and like to stick it to me when I lose. But you just don’t get it. Money is not the only thing that drives me. If it was, I’d be out there with my tin cup, begging for some of that ponzi money.

I like to believe this site can remain a home for the individual investor who doesn’t give a shit about what misguided analysts or talking heads say about the market. We are about consensus and how it correlates with making money. Everything I do is designed to find better solutions to making money, some fail, others do well. It’s a process that is being displayed in real time, for better or for worse.

I fuck up. Hell, I fuck up a lot. Sometimes my mistakes are accidental or due to bad luck. Other times I just blow it, sort of like not selling YELP at $32 last week. Moving on, I don’t live in the past, wallowing in the mistakes of yesterday. If I did that, I would have checked out of the business of money management a decade ago.

Do you know how many times I lost a million plus on a single idea?

Often.

So many times I felt like “this loss” was the final straw, the end of Le Fly. So many times I felt defeated, enveloped by doom, brought on by my own gloom. I’ve had draw downs of 50% inside of a few weeks. Last year, my entire book fell almost 30% inside of two weeks. You know what? I made it back every single fucking time. I do it because I have no choice. It is my job to make people money, no matter how hard it may be. My efficiency is the result of 20 years of trial and error. You may think you know everything, sitting there in your bullshit pleather chair from Staples. The majority of you don’t have the scars of war on your chest, the late night horse kicks to the fucking sternum to remind you that money is about to evaporate. That’s okay.

My best mentor once told me “the fastest way to success is to emulate someone who has already done it.” Clearly, I am nowhere near my desired peak in life, as I have mountains to climb and enemies to destroy. Still, “The Fly” is here to accommodate any questions you may have, regarding investments. Don’t let my gun slinging tone stop you from peppering me with serious questions.

I am typing this from my iPhone, as I am on the road. I see YELP trading lower has encouraged a certain miscreant to talk shit, decrying my investment strategy as something to mock.

Does this individual, who is now banned, realize I sold out of OPEN way before the collapse and came out flat on the name? Does this small brained pleb understand that I sold FOSL and LULU for 20-30% gains, long way before anyone else got onboard?

What’s better, owning LULU at $42 and selling in mid 50’s or chasing it in the 60 and 70’s? They were never part of a long term strategy, so I sold it when profit presented itself.

Some of my long term holds, GSVC and WNR, did exceptionally well for my investors, both making me more than 25%.

So now YELP is down 30% after a 50% run up. Sure it sucks to ride this lower, surrendering easy gains in exchange for the long haul grind. But I’m not done with the stock, not by a long shot. For the love of industrial disasters, they haven’t even reported earnings since coming public. The story is new and there will be doubters. Hell, it took years of patience to turn my 6k into 250k, long AMER, back in the day. At one point, I was down $20 from my cost.

My point is this: shut the fuck up and quit shitting in my parlour.

Today is the final day for the annual iBC March Madness Contest. It can go anyone’s way, with Zephler being the favorite. The winner will be well deserving of the small $1,000 prize (what other finance blogger gives away money?). Be sure to root and cheer, clamor for the death of the person who displeases you, all in the spirit of the games.

“Maybe your face is too small.”

On the way to dropping my kids off at school this morning, Mrs. Fly had a mini-crisis with her $400 sunglasses falling off her face. She’s been meaning to get them fixed at the mall; but we’ve been so busy looking for new homes, she hasn’t had the time. Because I was annoyed by the manufactured crisis, I offered her my condolences with the above quote. My suggestion to you men out there dealing with similar scenarios: avoid any reference to a woman’s face. It is not a topic that should be broached, even in jest.

Well, futures are lower again, due to the reemergence of the European debt crisis. Oh how I missed the EU crisis, like poison ivy in my fucking tree house. Portuguese yields are blowing out, as well as Spain’s. But my question to you is this, very simply: are you man enough to sell short ahead of tomorrow’s employment data? The market is closed tomorrow; so if you short here, you will have to deal with the singular nature of a bull market, fully rested, coming off of a Obama manipulated jobs report.

The risk-reward of that trade doesn’t work for me.

What does work for me are the retailers. Same store sales are coming in much better than anticipated. At the top of my list is JWN, with TIF a close second. And, for the spring auction season, I am long BID.

Bottom line: things aren’t as bad as they seem, nor as good. The imperious demeanor of the bears would have aliens from other planets, who were totally ignorant to our world, believe the Earth was on the verge of explosion–with their childish banter. But the market has proven over and over again that it is, indeud, the honey badger. Betting against the honey badger is like wagering the cobra can swallow the badger in its sleep. No fucking way that will ever happen.

Today, a few people that I know were telling me of the horrors that is the stock market, declaring “several key stocks broke their 50 day moving averages today”. Being that I digitized your fucking charts inside of The PPT, I decided to mine the data. It appears there are several names “vacillating” the 50, most of which are far, far away from their 200 day averages.

Having said all of that, does any of this HORSESHIT mean anything, when the market is phantasm and reality is nothing more than a blink of an eye in between long lines of cocaine?

I think not.

Going into a long weekend, the market should trade down tomorrow. Let’s face it, we’re overdue a sell off of serious magnitude. I’ve alluded to this point numerous times over the past two months. But my prognostications were ignored, even by me. The long and the short of it is: I am no more scared of a sell off than a thermal nuclear weapon detonating in my garage.

Here is the list.

Say, for example, the market went down for a period longer than 5 days. The pancake faces on CNBC, disheveled by the panic, displayed stories of anguish and despair–all for the sake of ratings of course. The Obama campaign gets derailed and with it the career of Federal Reserve Chairman, Benjamin Bernanke.

Now everyone is paying attention to the choice words of some meaningless Fed guy. The reality is this, so listen to what I am about to tell you, ever so closely: FREE MONEY FOREVER, BITCH.

The Fed Chief will implement QE3 at the first sign of panic. The stated goal is to defend the economy from deflation. Until we get sizable increases in the values of homes, the Fed will continue to be extremely accommodative.

Now you may choose to ignore my words of wisdom for something of lesser quality. You may also make some money by betting against prevailing trends, logic and reason–things of that nature. But at the end of the trading session, the bulls will win again.

I have a list of stocks that have underperformed, all of the high growth caliber, seemingly on sale, for your perusal.

In other news, DAL mulling the purchase of a COP refinery to reduce jet fuel prices is fucking genius. I find it refreshing when common sense rules the roost inside big corporate America. Far too often, fucktards steer large bureaucracies into manure piles.

Feel free to enjoy the music, courtesy of Mr. Copland.

UPDATE: I added to my YELP position.