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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

NONE OF THIS IS AMUSING

Since my move last week, things have gotten a tad out of control at Casa del Fly. For starters, Mrs. Fly is out of control to the upside with spending money. It’s like she’s Greece and I’m Germany, if you catch my drift. I am only interested in war and building catapults to destroy the occupancies of my new neighbors, while she exchanges pleasantries with the people next door and donates money to every hound who knocks on our door.

Thanks to the fact that she gave away most of our old furniture before the move, I now find myself in the most enviable position of having to spend $5,000 per day for the foreseeable future to repopulate my house with wood. Also, she’s hired two sets of cleaning services, taxing me about $1k per month. She procured the new “Fort Knox” package from ADT ($3k), a fucking box that transforms into a bed ($600), steam cleaned all rugs (even the rugs we are pulling up to put wood floors!). The list goes on and on, infintum.

Plus, we haven’t even started the major renovations, with regards to painting whole interior, flooring, bathrooms, extensive trim work, coffered ceilings etc.

But what really pissed me off is my fucking “state of the art” irrigation system, which must’ve cost the previous owner $50 to install. I just had it serviced yesterday and today the fucking lawnmower guy had his Mexicans driving around on their mowers, having a grande old time, eating up my hunter head sprinklers. They don’t cost a great deal of money. As a matter of fact, their cost is almost free. However, I found out too late in the evening and my haunted house of a yard got too fucking dark for me to get in there and repair the fucking things. So, now I will lament over the specter of my new lawncare “professional” eating my sprinklers heads all night long, as the fucking wolves, deer, owls, and whatever the fuck is out there, piss on my irrigation system throughout the night.

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Warning Shots Across Your Canopy

The majority of you plebs are day-trading vagabonds. DO NOT couple me in with your degeneracy. I didn’t buy VXX so that I could make grande sums of money, while socializing in a brothel filled with whores and drugs. On the contrary, “The Fly” lives a sedentary lifestyle amongst the trees, deer and the dirt. I do not bask in the attention of strangers, who make excellent denizens for government funded mental institutions and adult orphanages.

Instead, I curry the favour of the Gods, the celestial beings who navigate the stars. Those who design black holes and push entire galaxies into them for fun. I do these things for the direct benefit of you, yet you fight me every inch of the way.

When the crops dry out and the money is gone, you will come back to this site and beg for handouts, as my pantry is stocked to the nines with three years worth of provisions.

I own but a few stocks in size, one being EXK, the other LNN. I’ve also purchased, in recent days, a good amount of RFMD and hold legacy positions in CPST and a pastiche of old man stocks. Having said that, I do endeavor to hedge my positions through unorthodox means, long of the reviled creature, bastard of all that is holy and sanctimonious on this earth: VXX

I started off with a large 10% position because I own so much EXK. If the central banks bail everyone out again, well then, EXK to the moon and I will sell my VXX tits. On the other hand, and a very dark and insidious hand it is, if nothing is done in fairly short order, you should expect nothing more or less than VIX going to $50, as the market spirals out of control lower– by 20%– inside of the next two months.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBfKXHoSvDM

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Your Assistance is Required

A short while ago, I was having a lengthy conversation about the market and asked my colleague “what the hell is redeeming about the market right now?”

He could not utter a sound.

The Dow is north of 12,500, not even a blip lower on a 2 year basis from recent highs. The VIX is sub $20 and the summer doldrums are in full force. Pray tell me, aside from extracting gross dollars out of the overalls of unsuspecting farmers, why should I go long here? Am I to incessantly believe the “magic hand” will support the market at all times, without rest?

If so, why hasn’t he helped succor the torturous rout in Spanish and Italian debt?

I must say, rather emphatically, now is not the time to buy. As Supreme Leader of all of the Financial Internets, I hereby order you to put those buy tickets down.

I am twisting in the wind, lamenting over the specter of buying into VXX or HDGE, to hedge my 60% long positions. However, I’ve had murderous experiences with VXX and find it to be an ungentlemanly trading instrument. Nevertheless, there are times when vagrants do the best, such as alley fights and towing cars, things of that nature. As I sit here in the dark, looking into the abyss below, I ponder about a future without order, financial collapse causing riots and armed revolt, globally. There are many more of you than me– and I’ll be damned if I allow my position to deteriorate without trying to do something about it.

Developing…

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THE WINTER IS HERE

In the immortal words of Jefferson Krull’s Rambo doll: “it’s over Johnny.” There is nothing for me to tell you other than “hide your dicks” because the guillotines are now being used on the longs.

Italian 10 year yields are at 6.55%
Spanish 10 year yields are at 7.58%

Don’t look now, but Polish yields are at 5.01%.

The market cannot and will not rally while ancient countries are on the verge of systemic failure. All of the money is flowing into US, Swiss, UK, German, Austrian and even French coffers. However, due to German greed and a desire to murder its neighbors, said monies are not being shared with EU members countries who are in despair.

There is a reason why I went to a 40%+ cash position yesterday: we’re heading the fuck lower.

In the event of another bailout, however, gold and silver will lead the way up, which is why I am long EXK in size.

But nothing will be spared in the coming melt down. There isn’t anymore corn and Obama is scheduled for another 4 years.

Good luck.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSV8WPzWU28

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The Magic Hand Bought Today

I do not regret selling today, as the majority of the stocks sold were at a profit. I added to my EXK position, in grande fashion, because the laws of mathematics and science dictate it is bottoming out.

Imagine yourself walking into a bank with 1 million dollars. The banker approaches you and says “good day to you Sir. Deposit your money here and in just 5 business days, I will give you back 1.15 million dollars.” You retort “why thank you, kind Sir, I will take you up on your proposal and give you this money right now. Good luck.”

That was my thinking when I bought EXK today.

I cannot tell you why stocks rallied all day, after a horrific open. I can only suggest that someone is intently interested in higher equity prices. Therefore, as the direction is my master, I follow it into the close.

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THERE ISN’T ANY CORN LEFT TO EAT!

The markets are reeling from panic, with exception to corn.

Have a gander, will you?

 

On Jupiter’s Stone, we’re all doomed to starve, deprived from high fructose corn syrup. Most of you out there will be disheveled, unable to cope without the luxuries of faux maple syrup on your frozen pancakes. The truth of the matter is, corn is only meant to be burned for ethanol, not to be eaten at all. Today’s resilience lends to the idea that the entirety of the corn crop, mind you, is in shambles.

You were looking for a crisis of mammoth proportions, betting against banks and egregious natural gas conglomerates, yet the real black swan lurks in the farms where 96 million acres lay barren from drought, planting the seeds of dust bowl and famine, instead of sustenance.

As such, I take it upon myself to milk whatever is left from the farmer, through pivots and extraordinarily expensive irrigation systems. I sold out of MOS and RNF, based upon the laws of merit and caution. Howsoever, I still hold a full position in LNN– and would rather rub poison oak all over my face and body before selling out at these levels.

The good company VALMONT, ticker VMI, is slated to report earnings on the 24th of July. I suggest you listen to what they have to say, especially if you are long shares of LNN.

All in all, ag is my only play in the interim. I am not a buyer today because only fools, scoundrels and charlatans buy stocks when Spanish yields are at new highs. Nevertheless, I intend to reallocate a healthy portion of my cash reservers into this sector, into the blood.

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Stepping Aside, Just a Little

While my tea kettle starts to heat some water for my earl gray, I am going to paint a picture for you.

Imagine you were +25% for the year, after barely scraping out a gain the year prior. It’s summertime and the world is filled with uncertainty. There are wars taking place and giant nations, ancient ones, on the verge of financial collapse. You find yourself long a wide array of risky and volatile stocks, all up from your basis. Under such a scenario, I’d say only a fool would just sit there and let nature take its course.

I took profits.

Early this morning, I sold out of MOS, ALJ, CRESY and shaved off a few percent from some other positions, putting my cash horde up to 45% of assets. I didn’t have to do it; then again, I am not required to do anything but make money for my clients.

I kept some of the more interesting names, since I do believe there is a bid in this market. I still have my entire EXK and LNN positions, as well as RNF, CPST and CGA. I hope the market goes straight up and everything I sold gets bought out by MSFT. The truth is, I cannot justify being heavily long as Spanish and Italian yields break new highs.

If and when the ECB bails them out again, sending yields lower, I will have ample time to repurchase the market. Until then, or until we get an official OVERSOLD reading in The PPT, I will be playing this market as if I was dancing atop expensive dinnerware.

UPDATE: I changed my mind on RNF and sold it out for a small loss.

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