My Deep Market Thoughts

This is a big deal. CALPERS is removing themselves from the cesspool that is the hedge fund world, which represents about $4 billion. What’s worse is that this could become a trend for pensions around the country, which in turn may lead to forced liquidations–further jarring markets. But even if stocks soften a bit here, there are plenty of go-to names to devour on the cheap.

Look towards GILD (I am long), trading 11x eps, on pace to generate over $15 billion in free cash flow next year. This is a company that may begin to aggressively buy back its own shares or increase its dividend.  By the way, they cured hep c.

Two biotechs worth buying on dips are ACHN and ARWR. ACHN has a cheaper hep c drug than GILD’s and the data has been impressive. ARWR  (I am long) is working on a hep b cure and is a possible buyout candidate. Other biotechs that I will buy on dips include JAZZ (I am long), XON, GEVA, ALNY and SGEN (I am long).

Let’s not forget about the oil boom in the Bakken and Permian Basin. I like fracking sand companies SLCA (I am long), EMES and HCLP. And exploration companies FANG, OAS and CLR.

Lastly, there is the tech arm to this market. Web 2.0 is the only way to play it. However, valuations are stretched and if we get a decent pullback, you might lose your scalps with these names. Nevertheless, YELP (I am long),  AAPL (I am long), TRIP and TWTR are must owns–long term. Other high tech names that peak my interest are MBLY, GPRO, PANW (I am long), QIHU, YY and  N (I am long).

As an aside, if Shake Shack ever comes public, I will make it my largest position and probably never sell it.

Until then, my trading positions are heavily biased towards utilities and treasuries. I am also excited about my IFON position catching a second wind.

There will be one last chance to sell and it’s coming soon. The market as you know it is going to change. When all is said and done, there will be nothing but remnants left of a time when you’d make 10% before lunch and another 20% afterwards.

Black clouds approach and the Fed isn’t going to help matters this time, as it is led by a crazy old woman.

What you need to do is understand that fundamentals will not play a role in the coming correction. Price discovery will be had by the sword. People will be ruined, leveraging into this maelstrom, thinking it’s only a benign dip. They will be wrong, for this is blood sport. The very blueprint of what is going to happen has been laid out for you, 14 years ago to the day.

Naturally, I could be wrong and I still have a great deal of exposure to the markets. But I’ve hedged myself well, putting TLT, EXC, ETR and GAS as my largest positions, intent on surviving the coming apocalypse and then drinking your blood.

Good day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg1xlLufxIU

The path of 2000 was my prophecy and I am here to see to it that it is fulfilled.

I do not need to offer commentary. Instead, I will provide you with two screen shots of stocks that will speak for me.

Over 400 stocks are down more than 4% today. It is a rout, gentlemen. Prepare your helmets for a crashed landing.

My bubble index is off by 2% this morning and biotech/high valuation tech stocks are being dismantled. Do not look for a reason, for it was written in the stone of ancient ruins (Puma Punku), foretold that this day would come–many centuries ago.

Utilities, REITs and treasuries are higher, as per the plan. It’s also worth noting that IFON is higher too. Go figure.

Listen to me very quietly: these aren’t garden variety moves and if it wasn’t for the good Dr. telling me to hold ARWR, I’d sell it twenty ways till sunday now. I am fortune to have held onto my moribund holdings and wasn’t lured into the sordid affairs that many of you find yourselves in now.

If you’re looking for market tells: look no further than FEYE, SPLK, WDAY, YELP and N.

Everyone that I know hates radioshack. Their prices are high and their employees are stupid. There are rumors floating around this morning about a giant financing deal in place, perhaps by AMZN, to keep the remote control water boat vendor afloat (pun intended). If AMZN takes over the RSH footprint, I will begin buying puts on the stock immediately.

No one cares about those little stores, unimpressive and without purpose. They are relics of a time when kids played with walkie talkies and remote controlled cars.

Nowadays, kids want to play with apps, snapchat their stupid friends stupid pictures, and shiftlessly meandering about the house in search for things to do–whilst noshing on snacks.

I am here to petition, very early in the morning, on this day, to LIQUIDATE all of the radioshack stores and fire all of its employees–because a loser is a loser and they are going OUT (extra Glen Garry)!

One of my pet peeves is being forced to see people who are obviously aging taking selfies of themselves and posting it to social media. If I follow you, or perhaps happen to glance at my phone, I am a captive audience to your depravity. Let me enlighten you to something.

After the age of 30, selfies should be illegal. The only judgement people will make when seeing your photos is how remarkable or hideous you look for your age. They’ll say stuff like “wow, she looks great  for 45. Or doesn’t he look young? He’s really 47.” They’re not actually saying you look good, mind you.

I find it to be insulting to my time for you to post selfies of yourselves after the age of 30. Older persons, such as myself (38), should resort to posting pictures of oddities or events that you happen to enjoy. Ergo, folks, you are in the no-selfie zone, a place where people know and understand to be beautiful is to be young  and if you’re not young, you’re just aging well.

Age gracefully and stop taking photographs of your wrinkles.

Markets are heading lower and futures are vomiting all over themselves. Prepare to be SAMSONITE HAMBURGALAR’d tomorrow.

Marc Faber has a mental disorder. Just today he said he’d feel lucky to only lose 50% of his money in the coming crash. I suppose it wouldn’t make sense for him to just, oh I don’t know, sell his securities and avoid such a horrible fate. Then again, without the dramatic effect of being personally afflicted by the coming crash, Mr. Faber might lose a little realism in his television appearances.

Very simply, today was a total circle jerk. This market is designed to set me back. My only respite is the low beta quality of my current portfolio. I could use a windfall or two:  perhaps a surge in IFON or a blast off in ARWR or LITB. One thing is for certain: this market was built for The Option Addict, who once again nailed another call with NMBL ripping off chest hairs today.

For those of you who are just tuning in, iBankCoin is hosting its first ever, and possibly its last ever (depending on my experience with  this whole thing) conference. Seek out the details and book your flights now. We do have discounts available for the Encore hotel and will get that information out to you after we finalize the paperwork.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg1xlLufxIU

I am convinced if it weren’t for David Tepper and a slew of copycat hedge funds, TLT would be higher today. It makes zero sense to see commodities get crushed, the dollar soar higher, yet treasuries lower. In all of the history in all of the world, this has never ever happened…ever.

The country in which the bonds are located cannot have a surging currency, whilst deflationary pressures are present in the form of tanking commodity prices, and also have its yields go up. Fuck you very much Mr. Tepper, I hope there aren’t any sales at the mall today.

Deflation. Let’s talk about it.

Corn, wheat and sugar are down 20% over the past 3 months. Natural gas, cotton and oil and down 16%, 13% and 12% respectively–over the past 3 months. Gas, timber, silver and gold are lower too. The only commodities that have risen, markedly, is cattle, palladium and coffee, none of which could be considered harbingers of inflationary doom.

No, I am digging my heals in here, awaiting an awful tape–one that rewards, not punishes, those who smartly went long treasuries and utilities, god damn it.

I have to believe another certain Chinese burrito e-commerce website may catch fire, lighting the heads of the disenfranchised– fueled by black coal, metallic smoke, and other incendiary elements. Persons with bearish bias shall be flung out from their calashes, mid-gallop, to be ruined by mud and spoiled vegetables by the roadside.

Their frocks will be dismantled and their mandibles detached from their hideous scarred faces.

Tax collectors, and the like, will search them out and arrest them for “failing to invest wisely”, a new crime established after the great Alibabba ipo. Men like JACK MA will become examples of elegance and panache along Madison avenue, as ladies flock to him like women to millionaires.

Ladies and gentlemen, I speak of a company whose CEO manages his conference calls with a crying baby upon his lap, not really giving a flying fuck, because his stock is en fuego.

This company is LIGHT IN THE BOX, LITB (drops mic, detonates atomic bomb over Pyongyong for shits and giggles).

The last time that billionaire hedge fund manager, who operates out of the Short Hills Shopping mall, told you to be careful of stocks, at the SALT conference, everyone panicked for a solid two weeks. After all, David Tepper is God’s only bastard son and can do no wrong. Persons of interest and disinterest alike shorted internet stocks with reckless abandon. Everything seemed to go fine, until your faces got ripped off–placing Mr. Tepper in the indomitable ‘fag box.’

Wait, should I refrain from talking shit about Mr. Tepper because he has more money than me? I know many of you microbes out there like to judge a persons opinion based upon his account size. Should I qualify myself with screen shots of my 7 fig account balance before each blog? I know some of you sub-mentals have asked me to do that before. Hey, don’t forget to come to our fucking conference in Vegas, ok?

So now Mr. Tepper, sausage eater from Pittsburg, now working on the 2nd floor of the Short Hills Shopping Mall, directly above the Santa Claus picture centre, is telling you that rates are going higher. He’s called a bottom in interest rates (LOLz), the very rate the US govt pays to borrow money to conduct warfare and other unsavory events. With almost 20 trillion tucked away in debt, this guy, the sausage eater from fuckville, is telling me that interest rates, the cost of borrowing for the insolvent US govt, is going higher.

PUHLEEZE.

Once you get it out of your system and follow this psychotic into shorting treasuries because of the inflation boogyman, you will realize that it is implausible and certainly improbable for rates to go higher, to any large degree.

Having said that, TLT is lower this morning and has moved 5 straight points to the downside since 9/1. On the surface, it would appear massive inflation is being priced in, at the same time gasoline dropped by 15%. Because, ummm, I don’t know: because inflation is a figment of your servile imagination!