18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,495 Blog Posts

Zero Respite, Approaching Oversold

It’s brutal out there. We have ourselves an interest rate rooted rout, with the 10yr zooming to fresh highs and the economy stronger than expected. The IMF upped their global growth estimate to 3.2% from 3.1% today and everything appears to be great, other than the fact that markets absolutely suck.

Yesterday we had the LME-CME banning Russian metals to buoy copper and aluminum. Today, we don’t have that same news and as a result: COLLAPSE THE METALS.

Over the past week, stocks have dropped by ~7%. Until today, there was respite in gold/silver — all to do with panic and gold hitting new highs. Like previous market squalls, this one feels bad and it’s not pleasant to buy dips when they keep dipping.

If I might suggest, when buying dips — try your hand at the larger capped names — the stocks that you liked but went too high, rather than the shit tier stocks down the most. If still hedging, remember to close those hedges out when profitable and also remember the market is RIGGED TO GO HIGHER. We can trade down sharply over short periods of time — but ultimately policy makers will make sure stocks high fresh record highs. This is not my opinion, but fact.

Lastly, some of you might err on the side of too much caution and only dip buy in defensive stocks. This will ensure that you’ll be sidelined whenever markets bounce. If you’re going to buy dips during a market rout, you might as well buy the stuff that’ll go higher if and when we bounce.

Stocklabs is fast approaching an oversold level I deem interesting, which means I’ll be ruling out shorts soon. Presently I am 51% cash, 12% $SQQQ — waiting for a shoe to drop or a decisive move that convinces me of a clear direction. Today’s -1.1% drop in basic materials is basically the market punishing hot money. You can see the price of $BTC planning daily, now tantamount of a legitimate correction. The entire crypto space is -25% the past week alone and the fact that VIX is relatively low makes me wonder if we’re going to get really ugly first before things get back to normal.

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One comment

  1. flea

    Just a note that the next Bitcoin halving (block 840,000) is predicted to occur this Friday.

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