18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,495 Blog Posts

Trading into Chop is Ruinous

I’ve done more harm than good today attempting to extract value out of a market that is little changed. Every pop is matched with a drop and vice versa. My stagnant accounts are doing better — because they aren’t tricked or fooled by the present winds. What looks like a break out now is a break down in about 15 mins. By leaning one way and sticking to it, at least you can resign yourselves to fate, even though there isn’t such a thing.

You can load up and just shut the screens off and say “whatever happens is meant to be” — like a dog-brained fool and go play some golf. Odds are, you’ll be proven a genius, once again. We’re all geniuses in a runaway bull market that doesn’t pause for shit. People are losing their minds over this 5% drop the past week and if it goes much further — you’ll then get the catamites on CNBC clamoring for Fed rate cuts to help us all out.

But the only wrinkle in that analysis is the incessant move higher in the 10yr, now nearing 4.7%. I am actually long bonds now in my long term account because I believe the crybabies on Wall will very soon complain to their mommy and daddy about the rates and they’ll be heading lower today.

My returns for April are now gone, poof vanished like a pair of sunglasses on a speedboat. I’d like to have them back and I really don’t know how it happened, since I am usually prepared and felt inclined to be prepared for said eventualities. But here I am, like you, moronically lower in a tape that is custom tailored for me. No worries, as these sojourns into loss are brief for me and it won’t be long until I find my stride.

I am reticent to take too much risk for an oversold bounce opportunity and quite frankly — that’s exactly what is required to make big gains. It’ll look something like MASSIVE SELL OFF INTO THE BELL on all sorts of bad news, which is sure to leak into the morning. Futures will be DOWN 300 NASDAQ and all is lost, until out of nowhere a silver lining appears and you get the sense that space aliens are buying stocks, mystery hands with magical money and then everything is back the way they were and you missed out paused by fear.

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One comment

  1. soupbone

    Best case scenario is the unwinding of Fed rate cut expectations. Likely for the better if so.

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