The Move Has Been Made, Lads

We are midyear into this clown festival and the results are in:

NASDAQ +36%
Dow +1.8%
SPY +13.5%
IWM +4.8%

NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA, META and NFLX are your masters. If you’ve been hiding out in some bullshit names waiting for reprieve — keep waiting jackass. It isn’t coming. Here in America we cherish our monopolies and if you just invest in them and shut your pie holes — you might be able to pay down your 39.95% APR credit card balances.

This has been a wild 6 months, going from hyper inflation and not able to afford eggs to rapid deflation and loving all of the deals the market provides again. Each day is the same episode of buy the dip and then the wave until the close. It has been easy to make money, providing you’re true to yourself and don’t become disillusioned with your ideas.

I closed out my “perfectly balanced” portfolio this morning for a net gain of 10bps. That was more or less the goal. We have trended up since the open; but I had no assurance this would happen — which is why I just sold it all. If not for my TZA hedge, I’d likely be down about 0.7% now.

Even though markets have been strong, you shouldn’t expect this pace to continue. This isn’t 1999 and the NASDAQ doesn’t deserve to double. Up 36% is a damn good return. We are much more likely to head into summer doldrums rather than find more reasons to rally. Some people are holding out for the great big small capped rally to come. Keep waiting Jack — that shit isn’t happening.

Best case scenario we collapse. It would be pleasant to see zero bids and people panicking amidst margin calls and that sort of stuff. It really just brings back fond memories. HOWEVER, I see no evidence of this happening yet so let’s not get too excited at the first sign of market weakness.