I was distracted yesterday and wasn’t thinking clearly. I had a full book of oils and natty stocks, hoping and praying that Europe, this time, would freeze. I didn’t want to hurt the Europeans per se — just freeze them a little so that I could profit. If I could profit without them freezing, that would be far less dramatic — but also acceptable.
Well crude is down 3.5% and I got blown out of my positions for losses, placing me in a 1.25% hole. Bear in mind, had oil gone up today and my positions soared, this blog would’ve been intolerable about how smart of a trader I was and how happy I was to be born a genius.
The best thing that can happen for oil is for the war to end. Also bear in mind that Russian Urals oil is trading at a $20 discount to Brent — which is causing downward pressure on oil to persist. There is an evergreen desire to keep the war going and Russian oil flowing cheaply at the expense of Ukrainian blood — so until there is a lack of desire to maim and kill the circus will continue.
Markets appear strong today — but they’re not. Breadth is 35% and the IWM is down 1.2%. There is strength at the mega cap level; but everything else is 100% trash. At the moment, I am net short via TZA, LABD and FAZ.
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