I want no part of this tape. I had what I thought to be a nicely balanced book heading into today, long corn, short bonds, euros, real estate etc and I cleaned it all out this morning — upping cash to 90%.
Last night Russia escalated in a significant way, by launch large scale missile attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure. Water and power are down across the country, in retaliation against the Crimean bridge attack. Perhaps it’s a bad idea for Ukrainian officials to gloat and mock Russia on Twitter with juvenile tweets?
sick burn
— Ukraine / ??????? (@Ukraine) October 8, 2022
Whatever the case, Chinese stocks were battered last night and this morning we are barely lower and the DAX is up. Normally this action would have me diving in headlong bullish, since price action is the most important thing. However, wheat is up 6% and the euro is off by 0.5% and my appetite for risk is almost zero.
The price action is better than it should be and because of that, coupled with my bearish bias, I’m gonna sit on the sidelines until later on today.
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