Listen to me. You might think you understand how the market works; but you don’t know shit. At junctures such as this one, human intuition must kick in and you must see the forest through the trees. It’s happening now. All of the bullshit has leaned onto one side of the boat and it’s about to be capsize into the fucking sea — where the blood and the feces will flow heavily and those standing in the way of correction will drown in it.
October of 2022 will go on record as one of the worst ever. We are now mirroring 2008 and if history is of any ancillary use — we shall bleed in October.
I’d like to tell you “it’s not all doom and gloom, hey take a look at this trans-homo-sexual cosmetic stock making waves in America” — but I cannot.
It’s over.
This is what you’re gonna do next. Sign up for this info form and find out about our fucking stock contest for October. The first person to blow up his account to zero will receive $1,000 clean from me. This is how the good folks at Stocklabs help out the poors.
I closed the session at the highs +165bps, by trading like Merlin in and out of longs and shorts — quite frankly a dizzying array of fuckery that I sometimes partake in to test my trading skills. Ignore the AH’s lift, total fughazi. We spill out and knife lower on Monday.
Congrats and ciao.
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— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 30, 2022
Most oversold breadth the other day using 10 day adv decline avg since start of 1990 data. Back to back weeks where bears are above 60 in AAII. First time and only the fifth and sixth readings over 60 since 1987. 3rd lowest reading for bulls in Investors Intelligence in last 12 years. NAAIM went below 20. First time it does that the market has a bullish bias for a couple of weeks. Not to mention the reading aggressively crashed down. Stocks went up all three times in 08. Hedge fund position basically at same levels for every major bottom except 08. October is the strongest month in mid term election years. September down 8% or more has 4.5% avg return in October including a -17% in 08. The VIX term structure finally inverted. A number of put/call ratios are at bounce levels. Five day of equity put/call above .8 is a precondition of all major bottoms. The SPX and SPXW hit 1.8 which is where it stopped in 2020 and 2018. The ISE equity call/ put went below one yesterday which is rare.
More qualitative. Goldman Sachs capitulated on their price target last week. Marko Kolonovic has been bullish forever and who looks at flow and sentiment turned somewhat bearish today.
And finally the market is down 20% already to major double bottom and 200 week MA support. The fear is kicking in at the bottom of a range of an extremely oversold market.
Might be bumpy but market has strong upward bias here
Will the real rweiner please stand up
Damn Richard, you got a book man!
“Very little confidence in the equity market has been shaken – yet. Consider the surveys from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Sentiment – talk – is lopsided at 60.9% bearish and just 17.7% bullish. Portfolio allocations – actions – are an entirely different story, with an above-average 64.5% allocation to equities, nowhere close to the 40% equity allocations that AAII respondents reported at the 1990, 2002, and 2009 market lows. Put simply, investors are clearly becoming uncomfortable, but in practice, they continue to defend the hill of extreme valuations, in the apparent belief that whatever risk remains must be short-term in nature.”
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220925/
Maybe cherry picking a weakness on one of ten bullish indicators is a good strategy. Let’s see how John Hussman has done.
HSGFX – Hussman Strategic Growth Fund Five Year Performance minus 7.62% annualized. Lost money in 10 out of the last 14 years
OK. Double-down.
It is different this time. I’d guess that there’s no sustained bounce until a lot more market players accept that there is a reset being stimulated by various unwholesome factions throughout the world. Everything we know is wrong
Well said. This time it is really different.
I have no clue how things play out, but if the Chinese …and maybe them together with Russia/India et al …want to play in the reset, they should be coming out with some kind of asset-tied reserve currency alternative.
WW3 is not going to happen; it’s already on. This is how it will be fought. Infrastructure will be strategically destroyed. Like taking candy from a baby, the infrastructure is largely unprotected and cannot be protected. Go ahead, post a trans-marine at each end of the undersea cables.;-)
You would do well to plan for your family accordingly.
You convinced me! No more family vacations 70 meters under the sea in the middle of nowhere.
Thanks for the heads up.