18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,011 Blog Posts


It could’ve been great. We all waited for Putin’s speech that never came, hoping he’d say something like “Go fuck yourself” in full military attire. Instead, all afternoon we were entreated to one scam wick after the next after the next — total waste of time.

I did a little of this, little of that and ended up almost exactly where I started -33bps.


I am heavily leaning long commodities, 15% short via SQQQ, and not expecting much.

We should COLLAPSE into fiery pits of human flesh melting off their bullish bones. Howsoever, we’ll probably get more of the same buying of the dips nonsense.

As always, I will be monitoring the situation closely.

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  1. 2 wheels

    As crazy as it might sound, we might rally tomorrow if it ends up being a 75 basis point hike, simply because it is not a 100 point increase (currently 82% chance of going 75 bps based on Fed Watch tool)

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  2. metalleg

    Regardless of whether it is 75 or 100, I think the Fed will hint that they are done for awhile.

    That will send the market screaming higher and the USD lower.

    Midterms are straight ahead and they need a positive backdrop.

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  3. soupbone

    Commodities are at the same time economically sensitive and inflation-hardy.
    The stagflation narrative fits OK. But the death defying drop happens first, at least in 1973,1974 it did. Then out of the rubble commodities hold value.

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  4. bob smith

    I love how the CNBC bulls claim both in one breath:

    a) The fed is done raising rates for now because it takes 12 – 18 months to see the effects of rate hikes.

    b) The fed is done raising rates because rate hikes have already brought inflation down in the last 2 months.


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