Hourly seasonality in Stocklabs points to bearish afternoons. Couple that with the looming Fed meeting, I flipped my TQQQ for a 2% loss and took a 5% position in TZA. It’s all very small and the fate of TZA isn’t going to move my needle much. I find this tape to be difficult to read — due to the wild ranges and fluctuations. Dare I say, we are teetering here.
Conventual wisdom suggests markets will ride higher into an asinine 75bps hike tomorrow. This is cause for a funeral, not celebration. Nevertheless, people tend to believe and prefer to lie to themselves, not facing the truth of the matter.
The truth is, inexorably, America is on the brink of being humiliated in Ukraine — all of those new weapons abandoned and absorbed into the Russian Federation. Now we are saber rattling with China over Taiwan, always an excuse to neocon our way into needless conflicts. On top of that, our economic state is in shambles.
Suffice to say, we have a long road ahead of us and I hope we can rally, if even for just a bit, in order to bring the grace of hope and joy into the faces of traders if only for a brief moment again — as we descend into the pits of hell and burn for our sins.
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Fuck the traders. They’ve had hope and joy for the past 13 years while this stupid government thought they could outspend their problems.
Finally, some reality. I hope transparency, accountability, and trust are born.
Where did everyone get the idea of a 75-100bps move tomorrow? I’m calling it at 50bps and a giant market rally.
Where? Buy side, sell side and blow it the buck up side.
Fed funds is pricing in 95% chance of 75bps.
Yes but the source of all these positionings is jawboning by the Fed and banks. If I were JPM or Goldman, I’d want to put out word of a big move to position for the opposite. As you know, their business is making money. How better to make money than sending false signals to the market? I’m just stating this as a possibility.
Covered natty, still short oil …to $83ish??? Does the Fed has the gnads?
Short oil, are you F’n nuts
you’re gonna get burned and f’d
There will be a time to short, it is definitely not now
Investors in China are saying, “Financial markets are looking like they may have bottomed several months ago, however I hear there is some disruption in place across the pond that gifted us all of their intellectual property and arrange for us to get cheap oil.”
What if rate hikes hurt the supply side of oil, wheat and fertilizer yet the fed keeps hiking in the belief that rate hikes can end inflation?
Like defibrillating someone who is choking.
That implies inflation and deflation at the same time, whereas we are accustomed to bouncing back and forth between the two, in cycles. Lets hope they can right the ship cause that won’t be pretty.