This is a pretty binary market. There is immense risk premium in commodities now while having an extremely oversold tape due to risk of war. Any news that is viewed constructive towards peace is going to unwind this trade and that’s exactly what’s happening this morning.
AIDE TO ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE READY FOR DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION
Whether or not if this is a real outcome is immaterial for at least right now. Markets love to dream and presently the DAX is +6.3% and commodities are through the ringer. It would seem there is about $20-25 in additional premium on WTI, so buying up here on this dip might in fact prove unprofitable should Ukraine and Russia come to terms.
Naturally, if you took time to think this through you’d realize the risk to supplies are still present even after a peace accord, since the west has chosen a scorched earth approach to Russian relations. Ergo, all of those basic materials we need will still be off the market even after peace in the Ukraine.
But we’re heard this before and I find it hard to believe Russia is going to stop short of Kiev. If we pop at the open and then fade and God forbid close red — it will be a disastrous outcome for bulls. This is not a likely scenario, as this types of rallies usually hold up, barring some bad news.
Here are some other headlines.
- “China is definitely against unilateral sanctions that are not based on international law. Brandishing a sanctions baton will not bring peace and security. It will only lead to serious issues for the economy and the quality of life in the corresponding countries,” Chinese FM
- CHINA’S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN ZHAO: CHINA AND RUSSIA MAINTAIN ENERGY AND TRADE COOPERATION.
- GERMAN CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ SAYS WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT SENDING WARPLANES TO UKRAINE
- RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS: UNITED STATES MUST EXPLAIN THE BIOLOGICAL PROGRAMMES IN UKRAINE
- KREMLIN SAYS: UNITED STATES HAS DECLARED ECONOMIC WAR ON RUSSIA
- CHINA HAS ORDERED REFINERS TO HALT EXPORTING GASOLINE AND DIESEL IN APRIL
- RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY SAYS: HAS OBTAINED DOCUMENTS THAT PROVE UKRAINE PLANNED AN ATTACK AGAINST DONBASS IN MARCH
Won’t last. Russia can’t stop unless they get assurances but those assurances will cause the people of Ukraine to chase down Zelensky and hang him from a lamp post.
If he gives Russia what they want, the Ukrainians will ask, “why the fuck did you put us through hell?”
If his handlers want him to make a deal, he’ll make a deal. And you’ll find him retired to a luxury beachfront home in a safe place.
America hates us. $13B to Ukraine, nothing to the southern border
Mexicans vote Democratic and Russians vote Republican