Before I get into the doomsday scenario playing out in front of us, it’s worth noting Russia’s armored columns are food for Swedish and American anti-tank weaponry. Both Javelin and NLAW systems have proven to be more than effective weapons against what seems to be antiquated forms of combat being used by Russia in Ukraine. The subsequent result has been a battle field strewn with the carcasses of Russian equipment and their dead. I hate to bring capitalism into this conversation, but I have to say this is one giant commercial for LMT and RTX, who are the joint makers of Javelin. Sweden’s SAAB makes the NLAW.
Along the point, Germany, for the first time in decades, is going to militarize itself, committing to $100b in defense spending this year and 2% of GDP going forward. I suspect this trend will spread worldwide, ushering in a new era of increased defense spending.
Earlier today Putin issued an order to increase Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces citing NATO’s aggressive posturing. Here is some good analysis on what he has up his sleeve.
UK’S GEN BARRONS HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIA’S DOOMSDAY ARSENAL pic.twitter.com/8P4561fIg8
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 27, 2022
Here are some other relevant headlines for the day:
RUSSIA-UKRAINE DISCUSS CEASE FIRE NEAR UKRAINE-BELARUS BORDER *
BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY: IF WE DON’T STOP PUTIN NOW, THE CONFLICT WILL EXTEND TO THE BALTIC STATES, POLAND AND MOLDOVA
Lukashenko Says ‘Harassment of Belarusians’ in Ukraine Could Push Minsk Toward a Special Op
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former Ukrainian defense minister, says Belarus is about to declare war on Ukraine:
“There is information about airborne troopers from Belarus loaded on the planes to enter Ukraine.”
RUSSIAN TV IS SAYING PUTIN NEEDED TO ACT TO PREVENT A FALSE FLAG ATTACK AT CHERNOBYL
RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY: UKRAINIAN ARMY USES PHOSPHORUS MUNITIONS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF KIEV NEAR GOSTOMEL AIRPORT
Council of the Federation: Russia will be delivering precision strikes on individuals on Ukraine’s territory who transport arms to Kiev
Russian state-owned media RT and Sputnik banned in all EU countries, EU Commissioner President says.
BP WILL EXIT ITS 19.75% SHAREHOLDING IN ROSNEFT
Some further analysis on the ongoing war.
UK’S GEN BARRONS: RUSSIA SEEMS TO HAVE STUMBLED A BIT pic.twitter.com/KpJCwoFKci
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 27, 2022
BONUS: Ukraine’s Vice PM announced Market is seizing all NFTs from Russian citizens and donating them to Ukraine. How nice is theft when you can justify it?
Received breaking news. @dmarket, a platform for trading NFT & In-game Metaverse items, decided to freeze the accounts of users from the Russian Federation and Belarus. Funds from these accounts could be donated to the war effort. Nowadays Robin Hoods. Bravo.
— Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) February 27, 2022
From what I’ve gathered so far, Russia’s military force is far inferior to the United States, not even in the same league. Nonetheless, they do pose a serious threat to Europe and there is an increasing danger as they get bogged down in Ukraine. The worse it gets for them, the harder they’ll push and the worse the war will become — the nature of war in general I suppose. Nuclear aside, this doesn’t look like a Russian army that can threaten wide swaths of European soil — but there is always Lithuania and perhaps Moldova, so I suspect NATO is preparing for eventualities.
Another thing I’ve noticed is people have lost their minds again over yet another topic, seething rage on display with anyone of a different point of view. For example, how about talking about HOW we got here? Not relevant? Fuck yourself.
PRESCIENT THOUGHTS ON UKRAINE’S PATH TO CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA, 2015pic.twitter.com/1iFokTFrmT
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 27, 2022
As for markets:
Russia has $650b in FX reserves, of which $400b held in Western banks. I am not sure if that is subject to seizure — but if it was and I was Putin, I would certainly nuke every city on the planet until I got my money back. They also have $150b in gold, and $85b in Chinese bonds. You could expect a run on the Ruble soon and there is exposure in the western banks to Russian debt, in particular France. Russian citizens hold $285b in foreign currency held in Russian banks. You might see their central bank auto convert to rubles in order to stem off a heinous run.
Lastly, the west really looks stronger than ever. Their marketing blitz and financial penalties on display is a real deterrent for anyone else thinking about invading other US squeaky toys. Stocks will likely open down tomorrow on the specter of a world ending nuclear war. But expect it to bounce shortly thereafter.
Post script:
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterRUSSIA'S MEDVEDEV:
'THERE IS NO PARTICULAR NEED IN MAINTAINING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS' WITH WEST.
'WE MAY LOOK AT EACH OTHER IN BINOCULARS AND GUNSIGHTS.'
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 27, 2022
Afghanistan had no weapons and still won
Don’t think Russia having “antiqued” military equipment is anything to go by, no?
“Lastly, the west really looks stronger than ever.”
In marketing for sure. People believe that, but financially the west has never been broker.
In the long run; finances matter. And this will not be a short struggle.
Putin has only deployed 30% of his forces so far.
I wish it wasn’t true, but gov arrogance is at an ATH
At first I thought that average Russian soldiers would be hesitant to slaughter Ukrainians who are ethnically similar to Russians..
Apparently now reports Putin will send in Chechen Jihadists to do the dirty work in street fighting of Kiev. A chance for them to kill ‘infidels’ I suppose. Something ordinary Russian soldiers would likely be sickened by.
From what I’ve heard, Putin is trying to focus on military infrastructure and minimize civilian casualties. The plan being to ally with Ukraine after the smoke clears as they have many ethnic similarities.
Really winning those “hearts and minds”.
From what you’ve heard? LOL. Maybe last night’s rocket attacks on Kharkiv will change that view. The horror.
A couple of thoughts (maybe empty headed ones, but still…).
Admittedly, I was skeptical of Cryptos but I now see a good reason for holding some.
Between Trudeau freezing of Truckers bank accounts and Western countries whacking Russian assets the Cryptos would probably be immune as one would require the private key to same (I think). I am too old for this (if I get Alzheimers I wouldn’t remember the “key”), but if I was younger I would certainly consider some (emphasis on “some”) Cryptos.
Second. When I bought my electric car a couple of years there was a charger (L1) in the back.
If I buy a Saab, do you think they will throw in one of those anti-tank thingies?
Crypto is not a magical panacea, but refugees leaving Germany pre WWII invasion sure could have used it.
If crypto has 100x potential for example, then a 1% position seems reasonable,
Privacy cryptos only
XMR ARRR DERO
Definitely a growth area.
Will look into DERO
XHV built on XMR
Looking at LUNA, SCRT, PRE among others, for longer term
You know but for others DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
DAO’s are also growing fast. Organizations of the future (under construction) will be hard to shut down with no CEO, no headquarters and no bank accounts – shill FOX
And DAO’s share their IP and workers so they all can improve quickly. One talented expert worker could get paid by multiple DAO’s simultaneously for similar work.
Imagine how much faster automotive technology would have improved if GM, Ford, Mercedes, Toyota… collaborated.
The general’s briefings were interesting – thanks for posting. I wish all the children running our politics would see those briefings …maybe it would make them pause.
The sliver of optimist in me thinks that the Russians may be halting outside of those major cities because they are not complete assholes and do not want to soften them up the way we did in Iraq, Syria… and they may be planning to make an offer that Ukraine can live with at the talks that they have scheduled …and so are holding this sword over those cities in hopes of not using it. Perhaps supporting this notion is that, reportedly, Russian media is broadcasting that Russia is in only in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and is not moving on the whole of Ukraine …so they could still potentially scale back their mission without embarrassment domestically.
Crazy shit.
Yeah, I have to agree with most of what you post. Putin is feeling the pain of, like trump, attempting to be “the master of the universe” by force. Trouble is, the rest of the world disagrees with his strategy and it is lonely at the bottom, especially if the civilized world and your own nation is against you.
Putin, like trump, is an egocentric self-centered psychopath. That said, his country and the rest of the world are against his “rule the continent” strategy.
In short, Putin is currently looking for a face-saving exit and will agree to withdraw his troops if Ukraine promises to stop joining NATO. This ultimate outcome will crash the safe-haven trade (e.g., metals/oil) and rally the markets.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is and am personally sending some of my personal stash of stinger missiles to Ukraine via UPS.
Ah yes, who could forget how the left gave Trump a face saving exit which he then took gracefully, and then the walls closed in around him and everything transpired like they foresaw.
Maybe Purdy but I don’t feel as optimistic. They seem to have committed themselves and the many sanctions applied over the weekend will not be withdrawn in years, it will be decades and the actors will be dead from old age. There will be many cock-trimmings going forward here at home also. I just got a trimming myself with BP.
Like QE, negative interest rates and all the other shenanigans, shutting part of SWIFT will have unknown (at this point) implications.
Fed minutes released from 2008 show that Fed members had no fucking idea what was going on at the time.
As a baseball manager famously said to a plate umpire:
“you’re just fucking guessing back there.”
Somebody go in there and wake up sleepy Jim.
The White House said China needs to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
https://news.yahoo.com/china-vows-cooperation-north-korea-024830429.html
Good evening iBankCoin, it is I, Mr Devil Dog, and as I foretold, you are all going to die. But before you do, you will lose all your money. World War 3 is imminent, whilst I levered 10X short the market indexes can only prosper. Do yourself a favour, and go out and buy gold bars and dry food supplies. Yes! Buy them with great vigour and tenacity as if you were about to be consumed whole by a giant pelican.
I would be very hesitant about assessing Russia’s military capability from Ukrainians wasting state of the art missiles on 30+ year old tech that Russia needed to decommission anyway.
From the POWs I’ve seen, a large part of this force are conscripts who got slapped together a month ago. Russia then cleaned out a bunch of old Soviet stockpiles and sent them in with basically no training. Some of these people had no idea they were even going to war until they got shot at.
We know they have new tanks and new fighters; has anyone seen any of these get destroyed yet? So far everything I see is old tech from the 70s, 80s, 90s. I think I saw a rifle from the late 60s.
The real Russian army is moving around Ukraine amongst this rabble, focused on military victory. Notice how Kiev and Kharkov both “defeated” the Russian invaders. Then they woke up today surrounded. In particular look to the South; if I were Putin I’d be heavily focused on securing the Eastern bank of the Dnieper which is what he wants at minimum and grants him every city in the East by default. Either 2 of the 3 fronts of this war were fake or else the first waves were fake and now the real Russian veterans are moving in, after Ukrainians are tired and have spent their best weapons on meaningless targets.
Also the Ukrainian invasion isn’t Russias full force. Some has to be holding back to defend Moscow in the North in case NATO or the Baltics decide to make a move.
Shooting untrained troops with shit gear isn’t a victory condition for either the Ukraine or the USA. This is Russian warfare in its most brutal form; Zelentsky has been fighting the equivalent of a Russian spring cleaning of their weapons depots up to now. And they’re already struggling. The real fighting starts next.
https://dxczjjuegupb.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Siutation-6pm-local-in-Donbass-1024×735.jpg
Well stated Cain. As I said, the really vicious ones are sent in last as evidenced by the Jihadist Chechins some reports spoke of near Kiev now. The old Soviet strategy of using ‘cannon fodder’ types on the front while saving the reserves for the heaviest and nastiest fighting may be what they have in mind. Naturally this is a ruthless method of fighting that results in large casualties to the least trained and least loyal. Just my opinion, but your analysis seems spot on.
Cain… You’re missing the point. No one is arguing that Ukraine’s military can defeat Russia’s arsenal. The point is that the most sophisticated weaponry on earth, and that isn’t even Putin’s, are no match for being internationally isolated.
Despite Putin’s psychopathy, even psychopaths pursue the less painful course (I have the data), and he’s starting to feel the pain.
Putin is currently looking for a face-saving exit. It will happen. Hopefully, more lives will not be lost in the meanwhile.
I’ll take the under. Western markets will crater just like Russias. But Russia has gold reserves and already largely diversified out of Western currency.
And the West has huge exposure to Russia. The BRICs investments have all kinds of financial companies and oil companies tied up in this. BP just took a $25 billion write down.
Sanctions are a 2 way street, Bob. You aren’t prepared for pain either.