I was thinking about doing a blog showing you CRM post big dips and how, eventually, it came back. It’s true, the recent decline in stocks has been for the most part algo driven — but perhaps there’s something a bit more to it. There are shadows of 2008 — but not exactly similar since there isn’t a credit crisis yet. We have a run away commodity bubble, which almost always pops, conjoining Federal Reserve policy to tighten, ergo SLOWING GROWTH with intention. It’s important you understand that last factor.
With respects to the markets, more of the same shall occur in the interim. We went from -25% in SAAS to -14.5%. Why am I obsessing over software stocks? Because software stocks have the best growth rates and their businesses are predictable and also they’re most beloved by Wall Street. Presently they’re reflating again and it’s possible the run can go a bit further. But let me remind you of something looming large.
RUSSIA
EN ROUTE
pic.twitter.com/JW95yGyRM0— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 29, 2022
RUSSIAN FORCES SURROUND UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/3L9LaXWsAL
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 29, 2022
I don’t think many of you understand the immense mobilization taking place in Russia — with assets being moved from the most eastern part of the Federation into Eastern Europe, on the border with Ukraine. We have the President of Belarus making batshit statements, pounding the drums of war.
PRESIDENT OF BELARUS BANGING ON DRUMS OF WAR, WARNS THE WESTpic.twitter.com/ubv0pqGei0
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 29, 2022
And now we have reports Chechen forces loyal to Russia are moving towards the Ukraine border, as well as elements of Russia’s Baltic fleet being moved to the Black Sea via land. All of this is occurring in Russia’s front yard and post Afghanistan disaster, there is next to zero iron will amongst the American people to wage a war with Russia over Europe.
So who will check them?
The entire German army totals 65,000 men, unionized — 250 tanks.
The entire UK army is 82,000 men.
Europe is a shell to be cracked and if Russia wanted to — they could take the entire continent.
Obviously we live in much more genteel times than 80 years ago, as western cities embrace all of the wonderful trappings of post modernism. But in the east, places like Moscow or in Poland or in Hungary — the men are still militant with very few transgendered Admirals amongst their ranks. I view the specter of war in Ukraine as a 100% probability and ponder if this could lead to an American response, which in turn might lead to Russia invading NATO Baltic countries in an effort to destroy the organization? Who can stop them? Brussels?
Now if this happened and China felt the mood was right to take Taiwan, we could find ourselves in a world very different from the masked one we find ourselves in presently. Again, this is a long shot scenario — but a military defeat in Europe or Taiwan coupled with the dissolution of NATO would lead to, in my opinion, a run on the dollar. In such a scenario you would see an immense shift out of dollars and into Bitcoin. Just my two cents and because of these geopolitical events, I am second guessing my decision to sell all of my ETH during 2022. I have sold two of 12 tranches so far.
SEN GRAHAM WARNS PUTIN NOT TO INVADE UKRAINE, SAYS AMERICA WILL “POUND YOU”pic.twitter.com/RxK5vfp0co
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 30, 2022
On the issue of war and how it affects stocks — NOT GOOD — lest you’re winning.
Botton line: We have a nice oversold bounce underway and it might spill into a short squeeze and we might find ourselves lulled by the normality of it all. But all it takes is one airstrike to change the course of history and you’d be very wise to pay close attention to the details of this crisis over the next 4 weeks.
SIR.
“Europe is a shell to be cracked and if Russia wanted to — they could take the entire continent.”
Hmm it’s an interesting proposition. The Russian army is orders of magnitude larger than any European force but the sum of all European armies is probably a million or more.
You forgot France too, which is probablythe strongestof modern day NATO countries. And both France and the UK are nuclear powers. At the German border, this conflict goes nuclear.
But yeah Europe is weaker and dumber than at any point in probably human history. Hope the free healthcare and sodomizing teens was worth it.
Also if Russia attacks, China is definitely taking Taiwan. Russia and China are not exactly allies. They have a checkered past. If Russia feels comfortable moving every troop off their eastern border, there’s definitely an understanding.
Under such a scenario, hard to see how the dollar doesn’t get sold down 15% in a day.
Providing you still believe nukes are real.
I think Hunter Biden’s Dad is playing 3D chess with Putin and Vlad is his puppet.
But seriously, no one can predict this but in a war scenario the Euro has to go in the shitter 1st, no? Everything worldwide crashes as everything de-levers.
I think Putin takes a minimum of East Ukraine and China takes Taiwan. The dollar takes a kick to the pants.
Hopefully they patch it up after that before Biden accidentally presses the nuke button thinking it was room service
What comes back first and most? crypto, gold?
If crypto starts running, war immament [sic]?
Gold. Most def. Crypto is Monopoly Money at this point.
….says the fool that didn’t buy Bitcoin in 2010
Fool! That’s the sweetest thing you’ve ever written to me.
Crypto is a tough call. If there’s enough war to destroy the dollar it does war. But it’s a currency embedded in communications protocols. If the war is big enough, armies will be hitting communications.
And if the US collapses, how many futures can you see where internet is reliable?
It does well*
If the internet is unreliable, how will people trade stocks? Online banking? UPS? Amazon? Stocked markets may be shut down. What businesses do not use communications?
It would be an issue for everything, but crypto would not be shut down 24/7. Even if spotty it only takes a few seconds to send a transaction.
That’s a really good counterpoint.
According to a certain far left biz channel, markets are not so important, only skin color is. I guess that’s why they spend 25% of their coverage going on and on and on about “race” and “racism”.
I think a lot of people are SICK of hearing about it, but too scared of being called the ‘R’ word to tell them to STFU about it already. The only way this sh-t will go away is if we stop talking about it, but that can never happen. Unfortunately for decent people the race hustlers who are making a fortune shaking down businesses and demonizing “whitey” simply have too good a hustle to walk away from.
Local news turned a story about Chinese New Years celebrations into talk about attacks on Asians. Then at the end they admitted numbers were low and 1/2 last year. – contrived bs
I find it comical that the market doesn’t continue to drop further regarding this geopolitical tension and the high probability of conflict.
Many people do nothing after several Lane Closed Ahead signs. They wait until they see the barricade.
test
They’ll back down now that Lindsay Graham scolded them.
Got gold?
Come for the stonks, stay for the paranoia. Someone forgot to include a Martian invasion. Is that good or bad for crypto? I’m more concerned about fake electors and attempts to get our military to seize voting machines than Russia invading Europe. You’re not?