I was hopeful midday and then lost all hope and quickly hedged up with a 20% position in TZA. With 15% cash, positions like D, EA, CHD and AXON, I am positioned defensively again into tomorrows tumult.
Early on inside Stocklabs we sported a RARE 10 year oversold signal on the IWM and then we bounced. The only time we ever had a 10 year oversold signal was during the COVID lows of 2020. We did not close OS on any main algos due to the small bounce; but in my estimation that bounce was toothless because it did not accompany SAAS. Without software stocks going up, we do not bottom.
SAAS closed down 1.2% after spiking green midday. The late rally was spearheaded by bullshit retail stocks and semis. Perhaps we bottom soon or perhaps this weakness causes us to heave over and spill out into the New Year’s starring margin liquidations, accounts barreling towards zero.
As for me, I will never lose money in a bad tape, as I am physically designed for this mood. I was up 0.81%, down from +1.35%. The hardest part about drawing down is accepting the gains you had were never yours, so you deal with the present and the future and forget about the past.
Can you do that?
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Covid lows of 2020. That was when you went to cash in your long term account a week from the bottom, right? March 16th? GG
Documented return of 300% in 2020, +226% in 2021. Fuck off
Sure
Fact
Commodities sold off hard last week and that made me nervous since lower inflation with a good to mediocre economy (maybe even a small contraction) is the one thing that can truly kill me off.
Like old Koshchey – who hid his soul in a needle, concealed in an egg, inside of a goose for his own protection – the spirit of my bets are hidden in inflation and I need these prices to fly the fuck out of here or I’m cooked.
News out of China is reassuring as their central bank support will help fill in damage from the housing implosion, which will in turn support commodities and keep our own central bankers in a relatively tight bind.
The 10 year sold off hard today and yields are back above 1.4%. Shorter maturities rallied and in general the bank curve reverted a bit. Big picture the tail is still inverted and the next move will be decided by measures of CPI and PPI, not traders staking out gambles.