Time to Rest Before Turkey Run

I’m expecting to drawdown a bit whether I like it or not. I’ve always felt to be invincible and in all of my years trading TODAY was the day I’d skirt the market trends and once again finish victorious presiding over a heap of charred cars and molten metal. I am expecting the market to pullback before Thanksgiving and I’m also predicting me trading like I can skirt this correction and only in fact fall victim to it and once again curse the heavens for the plague scorned onto me.

The Stocklabs market timing wizardry is now showing an OVERBOUGHT condition which means little without backtest data (which we have) other than to suggest the market is overheated now. How people respond to a very strong tape is an entirely different story. In many cases momentum begets more momentum and you can see that plainly in stocks like NVDA and AFRM. We have tossed out idle notions of fundamental valuations and now propel stocks to 100x sales, when about 15 years ago anything more than 10x would be viewed as wildly overvalued.

Everything looks tired, including BTC. Gold and silver are jumping off because, frankly, the Fed seems to have a hidden mandate of HIGH inflation. How else can one justify keeping so loose with this inflation and jobs market — labor shortages causing spikes in wages. I read a large number of plebs in the service industry have QUIT THEIR JOBS recently due to gains in SHITCOINS. The vast majority of said gains were under $50k, hardly enough to retire off from — but it speaks to the much larger narrative of aspiration and how people really feel about hard work. They don’t like it at all — conditioned to want leisure and take short cuts throughout their lives, such as buying vanity coins and vanity NFTs and entering into extreme mercantilism in order to extract true value in the form of currency. While these people will hem and haw and remain inexorably in ETH or SOL. Eventually, they’ll come back to shitty dollars and take said profits to their local Porsche dealership for a new car — because extravagant things means you’re an important person and being important equates to, at least what we’re told, a better life.

Alas the Fed and all of their wisdom deem it more important to afflict ruinous inflationary pressures onto a small subset of Americans who are not part of the investment class and cannot fend off, or hedge, the widely higher prices at the pump and grocery store. After all, if your grocery bill is up 15% this month and your portfolio is up 20% this month — are you less rich?

The rationale for higher inflation is to the benefit of a heavily indebted nation and the gambit, being currency reserve, would be to stoke the flames under asset prices, reap generational wealth under the currency reserve, and then taper. Once we taper, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where we do not enter a bear market and really drawdown from the lofty dreamy highs of 100x sales. Perhaps a more sanguine market will compel some of those SHITCOIN thousandaires to get back to work and I can enjoy service without too long a wait.