I recall the day well. Eleven year old Fly picked up the newspaper and read the NY Daily News headline of market calamity, at the same time a cockroach was crawling up my stomach — a most heinous and memorable moment during young Fly’s pre-pubescent history. This crash headline has since been seared into my memory and I’ve been preparing for it ever since.
I am the foremost expert in market crashes. I got poleaxed in 2000 — because I had been managing money recklessly and knew nothing but champagne and gigantic paychecks. But then after that I was “seasoned” and it prepped me for the fires that came in 2008. Feel free to peruse my archives on iBC and bear witness to Dr. Fly’s 60% 2008 returns.
This time around, earnings and revenues are non-existent, lower than the depths of the 2008 calamity. Certain parts of the global economy are, in fact, non-existent. At every opportunity to ride the wave lower, I am going to take it. Every single time.
Because of this pre-disposition, I’ve been scalded in about 9 out of 10 short calls to the downside. Each time, something saved markets and I was forced to cover and get long. Today I just about cleared out my trading account, amidst 1.2% losses, and parlayed into double sized FNGD and SQQQ positions. My theory is simple: everything will crash. The odds are me being right this time is of course remote. However, I cannot help myself in this regard, and will always take this trade, with earnings TTM down 60%.
We slowly draw into elections and things are certainly bound to get chaotic. Even though I’d love nothing more than to preside over sharply lower prices, I am still 65% cash and I am still 100% long in my Quant, which is 50% of my liquid net worth.
If being honest here, gun to head play, it is Etherum.
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I was working in Downtown Orlando at the time of the crash on 10/19 (Monday).
For the previous 6-7 years I had been investing and trading in Fidelity Select and the Strong Mutual Funds (been taken over since then). The Fidelity funds were great as they were priced hourly and I discovered there was about a ten minute lag period in the hourly pricing. It was like an ATM machine.
Anyway the market started fluctuating wildly in mid-August and unusually so in Sept. 1987. I was in all cash because I was scared. The Friday before the crash had a big downdraft in the markets again. Then over the weekend then Treasury Sect’y. James Baker called for an even lower dollar against the Yen and the DM. It was already going down so the dollar crashed Monday AM on 10/19. That’s when the selling cascade started and the “Big Boys” had all these program trades that piled onto the selling. Gold stocks (like Echo Bay Mines) started the day up 20% and by the end of the they were down as everything was liquidated.
I came home from work and told the wife another day of this and I was going to fly to Boston and bring back our $$ back in bags from Fidelity. I was scared. The next Tuesday in the AM the market started out strong and within 10-15 minutes started crashing again into 10:30 AM. It was down another 20%. But then the PPT (Plunge Protection Team a/k/a USA) started buying index futures and the rest was history.
Sorry for being so verbose but it was crazy and defined my investing forever.
Hey have you started whetting your beak in the oil patch again? You had it right last time, I believe
Also dope story OG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbI0cMyyw_M&list=PLqqTCCaIwYKPOwoQy9ClBJvB95ygLXTYH&index=3
Oh, by the way, I think they’ve cut back drastically or eliminated Trump’s steroids after the hissy fit he threw today.
Why a thumbs down. Continued steroid treatment, on a taper, is standard protocol. He can’t be feeling so great now.
I know an old fart who told me that individual stocks were spiking down to crazy lows that are not reflected in those market stats – some down 80%+. Trolling those spikes down got him his down payment on his first house.
But that’s all irrelevant ancient history. The Greenspan put has blossomed into the world-wide central banker put and markets are no longer tethered to the activities of mere mortals.