The former head of the FDA took to CNBC today and said we’re not in a second wave for COVID-19, but instead enduring sporadic bullshit throughout certain areas of the country.
Futures had already been higher, but now we’re cooking with grease, motherfuckers. We’re up 600 and things seem to keep getting better and better.
Gen Milley, fagLORD from the joint chiefs, issued a video apology for the other night, showing up with Trump in front of the White House, gassing people to make way. He did not, however, apologize for all of the war crimes and illegal wars his department has put us through the past 20 years. I’m very past the stage of caring, just taking notes here.
Finally, I find myself fucked in a DOUBLE SIZES SOXS position and FAZ. This comes a day after I lost 500bps in a serious of most unfortunate events, long shit stocks into a crash. This is the part of the narrative where Le Fly looks lost, disheveled and demoralized, only to later appear out of the smoke with a butcher knife hacking away at his enemies, and then drinking their blood from the chalice of victory.
I have no idea what the fuck that all meant. Happy Friday.
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Dizzying rollercoaster goes on. In the morning yesterday, I was up 4%with severalXXX shorts(DRIP,FAZ,TZA,EDZ,LABD>>>) only to see it shrivel to paltry 1% gain, end of the day, as I kept buying more crap(BA,AAL,DAL,SOXL,WFC, TQQQ). Sold long pre market for a 6% gain.
I don’t pay attention to the virus as have kept doing housecalls ; 4 days a week, my regular schedule. BTW I agree with former FDA head, fuck the V.
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I really don’t get it.
Are most people that dumb and can’t think for themselves (I know the answer)?
Here is a simple math (not even a basic SAT) question.
Assume a finite number of people take the Covid-19 test one week and say x number test positive. Then assume a larger group of people take the Covid-19 test the following week. This is because the test is more readily available plus more folks want to take the test for their own benefit. There are more positives the second week but the % of positives is less than the previous week.
What does this mean?
A. The overall trend of positives is trending down.
B. The world is coming to an end.
C. I don’t know and have to wait for the NY Times to tell me what it means.
D. I have to ask Dr. Fly his medical opinion for the true meaning.
Feel free to post your answer.
“Are most people that dumb and can’t think for themselves” . Hey they elected DJT and now ready to …JB.
Houses in the shitty area of Brooklyn or SF are over a million while food is dirt cheap.
We are devolving, unchallenged by climate and geography, without the .wisdom of travel.
it’s either:
A. LABD, or
E. The more readily-available test makes those who are completely asymptomatic -but just curious – more likely to be tested
The stats of DEATHS show DEATHS from covid. The stats for hospitalized show the
number sick enough to be hospitalized. If anything, the stats mean there are MORE
USA cases than are being reported. The number of people tested doesn’t mean shit.
Except most media reports I read talk about increase in positives.
There are probably 60 million plus people who had it and didn’t know it. Thought they had a cold or the flu.
Pre-existing illness folks (with certain ones more than others) need to be careful.
The ratio I’ve heard estimated from random sampling of zip codes testing for antibodies was a number around 10:1 tested vs untested which would put our known + unknown population at ~20 million.
I’m not sure the % positives is a great metric precisely because as we increase the number of tests greatly this metric will decline regardless of what the disease is actually doing. It needs to be normalized to get a sense of the true transmittal rate. Maybe one of the MD’s on this site can point out a good source that has done that.
But since hospitalizations are also climbing in these hot spots, doesn’t that lend credence to the claim that the virus is spreading rather than this just being a statistical game?
Because there are groups in power whose agenda is to see an increase in cases and deaths, you can’t believe any of it. If it were as serious as they say it is, they wouldn’t allow hundreds to pack into supermarkets and Walmart. They would be concerned about protesters and rioters. They are no. Covid is real but not nearly as much of a risk to the broad population as the main stream media claims.
First of, yes, many people are too dumb to think for themselves or simply refuse to when they hear/read something that confirms their world-view. For example, many on this site are drawing the conclusion that:
“cases up = trend down” is the ONLY rational view.
As the Resident COVID-19 Expert* the answer to your question is:
E. Not enough information
Of course, this was widely acknowledged **months** ago, which is why many models focus on the Death count (which is much harder to manipulate), and not the case count. Speaking of which:
“the 2020 death toll will probably be *at least* double that (150k-200k)”
– numbersgame, 1 month ago
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/05/04/indefatigable-bet-le-fly-lose-legs/#comment-572047
*how the market reacts to it is a whole different question. We were at record highs earlier this week with 13% unemployement.
Parts of the UK are seeing their “R rates” back above 1.
Meanwhile, at least a dozen states over this side of the pond are still charting new highs on hospitalization/deaths.
Can we all agree that people who say “pond” should be shot.
Let’s ask Henry David Thoreau for his opinion.
BTW, the House and the Senate near unanimously changed the “Paycheck Protection Program” so that it helps a lot less Paychecks.
1) By tripling the the time lint, a Small Business can now keep 1 worker for 24 weeks and receive the same benefit as keeping 3 workers for 8 week.
2) By changing the amount required to be spent on Paychecks from 75% to 60%, the Ratio of Paycheck to non-paychek expenses move from 3:1 (75/25) to 3:2 (60/40).
SO basically, the Democrats and Republicans effectively cut the number of workers an SB must maintain by an astonishign ***83%***, once again screwing the working class in favor of welfare for the investment class
Why do you hate America? You probably don’t support the troops either.
Asshole.
… a bunch of communists.
Being opposed to pols funneling money to the “donor class” is not anti-American.
Why do you hate working-class Americans?
Bigger asshole.
Why do we have to support troops being forced to kill foreigners so some rich fucks can sell the oil and the troops can sit outside of starbucks asking for oxycontin money?
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It looks like Fly will be offering a free trial of his Time Machine very soon lol
RIP in pieces.
This is too nice. Classic moves so far in the last 40 hours or so.
Now watch the bond yields keep falling. (I scooped up some /ZB contracts in the early morning hours and will stay long thru the weekend.)
Wish I went to all cash at the open. Market looks ugly.
the best time was this morning. the 2nd best time is now.
sell and and regroup over the weekend. spend some of that cash and you’ll appreciate it more than letting it wither before your eyes
if a civil war is on in the next decade, we could all regret harshly having lost the last months trading for pennies
Starting in 2010 with $100000 invested equally into TQQQ and TMF. Then $10000 is added quarterly. Portfolio is rebalanced quarterly as well.
SPY: final balance $993,087
CAGR 27.61%
best year 32.31%
worst year -4.87%
Sharpe .89
50/50 TMF/TQQQ: final balance $5,215,429
CAGR 48.46%
best year 86.59%
worst year -7.36%
Sharpe 1.48
You picked a convenient starting time. What would your results
be if you started July 1 2019?
Indeed. Run numbers again using the Rome Industrial Average starting in 111.
lets do some quick math.
TMF since july 2019…
+58%
TQQQ since july 2019
+36%
average of those two returns, without rebalancing…
+47%
SPY +3.38%
I’m curious: is this your plan moving forward until retirement?
Consider this scenario where long-term interest rates stop declining (or even start risign). I’m sure we’ll see 30s under 1.0% again eventually, but maybe not 0.5% and very doubteful below that.
Don’t make the mistake of pure backtestinf when there are so many varaibles that affet the economy and stocks that are changing. (aging popualtions and icnreasing federal debt loads chief among them).
I wish you would stop typing with your feet. It’s aggravating trying to read your shit with all the typos.
mssuhn accpmlishid
He bailed on TMF at the first sign of trouble. I wouldn’t expect him to be able to stick with something longer than 10 weeks, let alone 10-30 years
Did he really? I must have missed that.
My trading account right now has been emptied. In 2018.
My TMF and UGLD trades are a gambling game I am playing with 3 months of rent money. Its worked out. I am beating the SPY and I also never had to shit my pants watching the market collapsed. TMF was boring but profitable. UGLD was… well… a goldmine
My long term accounts are in cash. Half of my M1 account got turned into physical gold in Mid-2018.
I have not owned stocks since 2018 either.
when i decide to start buying again (After 2020 election mysteries are behind us)
i plan on buying TQQQ/TMF exclusively
when i see a plausible scenario of higher rates… that doesnt end with zero rates and more QE within months… then I’ll consider higher rates.
i think society is falling apart. i dont think america recovers. i think national governments are being cannibalized and NGOs and corporations will step in. I also think we will generally better off that way in the long run.
i think rates will stay low, equities will go up as the working class is further and further enslaved by debt and wealthy collect larger and larger percentage of GDP. That is good for stocks. That is why stocks have taken off in the past 40 years and living standards among working class americans has tanked.
wtfhappenedin1971.com
today whenever stocks go down, bonds go up. if its really scary… gold goes up also.
but because you need dollars to buy gold OR stocks OR bonds.
and as long as we have nukes the dollar is the real
when they all go down, the dollar goes up alone as the supreme safe haven.
i don’t see how i end up with less buying power splitting my money evenly between physical gold, bitcoin, TMF/TQQQ trading accounts on autopilot, and cash.
after the election, depending on whether we get more trump or biden and depending on how left biden goes, TMF/TQQQ is probably going to beat any list of stocks i can come up with.
this pair has probably beat any list of stocks anyone has come up with ever.
a free market would mean a disaster for TQQQ as a leveraged vehicle. price discovery, no bailouts for irresponsible companies, no FED buying corporate bonds indices…
that would be bad for stocks
but right now stocks are being turned into savings accounts for EVERYONE
if stocks and bonds both tank, at the same time… for more than a few months…
I’m banking on the assumption that my gold and silver hoard will save me.
I see stagnation – including in the stock market.
Peopel understand that when rates go down, this is good for stocks. However, they ahve conencted the dots to the facts that rates have been going down for 40 years and can’t go much lower.
They also have conencted the dots wityh the fact that so mauhc of stocks recent capital apprecaition is due to PE expansion, which is simply pulling gains form the future.
People should study TLT. The reason that it has gaine so much in the alst 10 years is the same reason that stocks have done so well.
and now we are geting more of the same no? or total medieval style end of the world?
Ah. That’s better.
But still way optimistic. For example: who needs who more, China or US …What would we do if China started sending tankers to Venezuela? Nukes only keep you from getting nuked.
For any long term investor, the most important subject to undersatnd if Central Bank interventions. Mosst important: how will it end?
Obviously it won’t be self-imposed, and asset infaltion is the goal rather than price stability. Given the COVID-19 example, I think we see COngress continue to throw any fiancil discplince out te window, and the FED will have to intervene
I think I figured out how/why the FED will reach their llimt, so I’l lexapnd on that this weekend.
Curious what you think about the notion that the mid 20th century rise of the middle class was the anomaly and we have returned to the “normal” situation with wealth highly concentrated at the top. How it always was and how it almost always will be for the duration of human civilization.
What’d you do with the real Peaches? Or are you just another closet optimist.
the multitude of colors realizing that maybe America needs to go to a Jewish therapist, take some MDMA and cry about how sorry she is for being a racist violent whore…
makes me happy
baruch hashem and shalom
Test
Possibly some of this selling has to do with rebalancing. Some funds have a ton of shit to unload.
I’m in cash at the moment. Quick hits with straddles are still my go-to.
I miss Sarc. At least he had all the answers for our unfortunate (((trouble))).
His answers can be summarized with a 4-letter word: “Jews.”
The Frankfurt School.
The new story is Jews created both Communism AND Capitalism.
Both were created to get more non white sperm in the white vaginas to destroy whiteness
SO VAIN!
“i bet you think this song is about you don’t you don’t youuuuuuu”
The people defending Christopher Columbus statues are also the ones calling Jews gold addicts
heckler, can you give us the inside scoop on the CHAZ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/it-only-took-2-days-seattles-autonomous-zone-descend-chaos
Will love to see how Seattle handles this.
From what I’ve heard word of mouth it’s pretty chill with a block party vibe. Some people actually live in the apartments and condos surrounding the Chaz and aren’t hating it too much yet or so it seems. Media has pumped the story quite a bit.
I booked an AirBnB in a tent on cement there over the weekend. Will report back 😉
A lot of medai seems to be hyping the rapper that has seized power and stating that crime in the are has skyrocketed. Be safe and oking forawrd to your report
Out of LABD for now.
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My last month’s onlihttpine job to earn extra dollars every month just by doing work for maximum 2 to 3 hrs a day. I have joined this job about 3 months ago and in my first month i have made $12k+ easily without any special online experience. Everybody on this earth can get this job today and start making cash online by just follow details on this website……………….HERE???????? . Read More