iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,691 Blog Posts

2.5 MILLION JOBS ADDED FOR MAY VS EXPECTED LOSS OF 8 MILLION

Enough is enough already. We’ve been hoaxed. It’s hard to understand how we added 2.5m job vs an expected loss of 8 million. How can the analysts be this stupid?

Dow Futs are +650. How can this be happening, 1,000% gains off the bottom? Sure, why the hell not?

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15 comments

  1. purdy

    Yields ..and XLF ripping. I know we all lit a candle of concern for the bankers ..but their employees at the Fed came through.

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  2. og

    Sold my AAL yesterday. F me…

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  3. Mr. Cain Thaler
    Mr. Cain Thaler

    Yeah that makes sense. Isn’t that why we’ve been rallying this whole time though?

    Most companies couldn’t follow the path of a GM which didn’t lay off anyone. The smaller suppliers and such pink slipped everybody and sent them to unemployment and now they’re starting back so the effect should be pretty strong.

    But I’ve been talking to friends in auto or parts manufacturing and they’re all at about 50% of headcount from when they started with no immediate plans to keep hiring. It’s going to be years before we’re back to where we were.

    I think the market is really not seeing this and how much of an impact it’s going to have on the economy. Especially with very generous unemployment benefits about to lapse.

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    • numbersgame

      In retrospect, several states including Texas starting opening in *April*, so maybe the number itself isn’t so shocking. Still begs to wonder how all the experts got it so wrong.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler
        Mr. Cain Thaler

        It seems like there’s a classification issue here worth about 5% and that may be part of the problem.

        Also experts just put points on a chart and plot a line through it.

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    • 'merica

      Father in law’s long time restaurant in MN looks like they will make it. But yeah, easily less than 50% headcount, likely for quite some time. Convention center business still down. That’s a lot of employees out of work. However, many are making as much if not more on UE.

      My wife is a realtor in WI – signed nine seller listings the past nine days. Buyers/sellers were spooked for a while, seems to be picking up. Granted she’s not your average realtor.

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  4. peaches

    Some terrible news will send treasury yields tumbling down and TMF through the roof before mid-June. TNA is fully stocked with robinhood money.

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  5. alty

    It is hard not to pity those that self limited their investment universe to bonds, gold, vix, guns, and ammo these last 2.5 months while equities and REITs rally 40-50%.

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  6. roguewave

    This is a national security matter. Therefore any silly numbers may be fudged.

    It’s the law. https://constitution.solari.com/fasab-statement-56-understanding-new-government-financial-accounting-loopholes/

    We may as well get our numbers from the Chinese.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      I believe the numbers. They’re independently confirmed by ADP.

      Your typical small manufacturing business went from 100% layoffs to 50% of their old workforce in the pace of about 3 weeks.

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      • roguewave

        Ok, that helps many sleep better at night.

        To think otherwise would be quite scary.

        Legally, they can make up any number and report it. They couldn’t possibly influence ADP, could they? Nah.

        Our public servants try really hard. But they make some honest mistakes, lots of them. It’s not on purpose. Just a lack of imagination. I feel better now.

        A question for you to answer for yourself:
        What has to happen before you would admit you were wrong?

        1.2 million covid deaths. Ooops. the model must have been wrong.

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  7. flea

    PPP re-hirings. Doesn’t cost the company a penny.

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  8. yossarian

    Dude, an expert is defined as some guy from out of town. Wise up.

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