iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,692 Blog Posts

We’re in Complete Control Now

I bought 9 stocks today, including one bet against gold. I am not a particular fan of gold here, with everything reflating to the moon. The knee-jerk reaction to this rally is to hate it, but I cannot because it’s making me money. If something or someone treats you well, do you hate it because they’re disingenuous? It’s an interesting paradox, but based purely on selfishness, I am a fan of this rally — in spite of it’s visceral malevolence towards Main Street.

We are literally celebrating the destruction of small businesses with higher stock prices and popped champagne corks into each other’s fat faces.

Look, Italian crime is down 66.6% the past month.

Banks have set aside $66 billion for bad loans.

Iran is going to lose 6 million jobs.

We have complete control now and nothing can stop the buying, unless we want it to happen. Hedges are smart here, as I have mine. But the market is likely to press hot irons into the faces of bears yet again tomorrow.

Stay tuned for even more winship.

My trades the past two days.

AMC +23%
SKT +15.8%
KSS +13%
MITT +11%
MGM +3.9%
NYMT +1.9%
GOOS +1.3%
RRGB +18.6%
BLMN +15%
HA +15.6%
SIG +14.1%
KIM +7.3%
ELF +3.6%
LB +1.6%

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79 comments

  1. spinthathamster

    Fuck new depression, this will be remembered as “The big sneeze of 2020”.

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  2. Dave Portnoy

    Hey, how’s retirement account doing ? People don’t forget

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      It’s amusing how you guys mock Fly for taking his 401K to cash when it was and is still the obvious move for a guy who manages money and makes his living selling stock services.

      He’s obviously not going to ride this thing out. His salary and his retirement are highly correlated.

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      • peaches

        “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

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        • narcist

          “Character is fate/destiny.” — Heraclitus, who was also the first to have said things that traders should always keep in mind:

          “Expect the unexpected.”

          “Knowledge is not intelligence.”

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      • narcist

        I don’t read every post so I don’t know exactly how much they mock him, but “bad timing” (i.e., selling near the bottom) seems to be the gist of the mockery.

        That’s a valid argument. Just not worth rubbing it in everyday.

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        • alty

          Every day that passes without admitting the error and reinvesting you’re retirement savings though…

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          • alty

            Your*

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          • narcist

            In all fairness, of the two stock market bloggers who have been around since my college days and have not vanished, Fly is wrong less often than Tim Knight.

            They are still selling things (products/services) to make ends meet. Hopefully one day they won’t have to. I had enough of working for clients/customers to get paid.

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          • peaches

            we’re in a recession, do you guys really think THIS is a new bull market? thats it? voila?

            best case scenario we are still at the tail end of a bull market, and this bull has 40% dips. real fucking healthy.

            my dad is not buying stocks ever again. ever. thats america.

            regular people with just one computer screen convinced the stock market is a machine for rich people to rip off the middle class.

            1/13th of last quarter was under the coronavirus and GDP contracted 4.8%

            we are starting this quarter off with commercial real estate collapse and 50 million unemployed…
            next quarter GDP adjustment will be absolutely insane.

            stocks go up cuz people buy stuff. nobody is buying shit.

            people are not getting down payments on Ford trucks with their stimulus checks.

            if stocks don’t go lower now they’ll go even lower later

            bear markets don’t last 2 weeks and every single crash this big except 87 had a bear trap that looked just like this one.

            there was no china rolling out 5G and solar infrastructure that was better than ours in 1987

            no 115% debt/gdp

            no literacy rate worse than fucking cuba

            alas…

            debt/gdp isnt real

            corporate/debt gdp isnt real

            scotiabank closed their metals desk.

            totally bullish shit guys.

            trade your short term book and stop pretending its not absolutely moronic to think the economy can be measured by looking at nasdaq futures

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          • kool-aid

            @peaches Preach. I’m just trying to fix what’s fixable with my time and money. The optimistic side of me still believes things will get better.

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          • narcist

            Peaches, the markets have always been rigged since they have been around. It’s only the rigging that has been evolving over the generations.

            Look at the long span of Jesse Livermore’s trading life. He was very good at adapting to the changes of the game till his last 10 years, during which he couldn’t figure out the “new” game and died with only the few millions that he stashed away after the 1929 crash. (Yes, he died a multi-millionaire–not broke–according to multiple sources.)

            I’d actually argue that the game is less rigged these days than when Livermore was betting at the bucket shops.

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      • edge

        Fly probably has more than he needs in that account.
        Why risk it?

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        • snoozemr

          i hope that is sarcasm. just shows you shouldn’t take wealth management advise from a day trader. Even fairly good day trader.

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          • edge

            The odds of any given “advisor” and his gullible clients escaping with 50% of their money are pretty slim.
            If you really need advice-you’re fucked IMO.

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          • narcist

            @edge

            Since I just mentioned Livermore in the last comment:

            “If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on a holiday when the selling time comes around? No, sir, nobody can make big money on what someone else tells him to do. I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgment. It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right. I didn’t have as many interesting experiences as you might imagine. I mean, the process of learning how to speculate does not seem very dramatic at this distance. I went broke several times, and that is never pleasant, but the way I lost money is the way everybody loses money who loses money in Wall Street. Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on. My task, as I should have known after my early reverses at Fullerton’s, was very simple: To look at speculation from another angle.”

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          • snoozemr

            agreed as to financial advisers. They are beholden to their employers- you have to hold them at arms length.Structured notes are the perfect example.
            Reminiscences is the greatest book on trading that has ever or will ever be written. But I’m not sure how many sane people would have wanted Jesse investing their wealth.

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          • narcist

            Jesse never invested anything. He just did his thing with the tape. Had he stopped trading in 1929, his reputation would have been much more intact to say the least.

            Paul Tudor Jones, a legend in his own right, STILL gives every new employee of his a copy of Reminiscences as of last year.

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        • edge

          Good summation. I listen to a lot of opinions including those on this site. Sometimes I get something I can use but just trading others opinions doesn’t work for me. I know because I’ve tried it.

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    • soonerxii

      Why do you spend ANY calories on this subject. Are you being forced to read this blog?

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  3. tradercaddy

    Not sure I would bet against gold. I think silver will now carry it along for a change (historic gold/silver ratio) and the major mining companies are now going to exhibit free cash flow (it’s been years for this to occur because of their mismanaged debt). Plus we now have QE to “da moon” (apologies to Ralph Kramden).
    I did sell my remaining 25%+ in various energy equity plays (bought over last few weeks) only because I felt like Porky Pig playing naked in the slop.

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    • peaches

      hey caddy,

      ive got a stupid sized hoard of physical silver. by stupid i mean i cant carry it all at once. i realized the other night, while staring at my reflection on 10 oz bars…

      what economic reasoning do we have for the silver ratio closing?

      stock to flow of silver is not the same as gold, its not as scarce and its easier to pull out of the ground… and this is why it is so cheap relative to gold no?

      the more i read the more im wondering how much this ratio will close

      Do you see silver ratio closing at 1792/medieval/ earth crust levels? below 20?

      or just tightening up to 40-50 range?

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      • peaches

        silver performance vs gold over the past 52 weeks makes me wanna switch fully into gold.

        lately silver has been acting up, but i have a feeling gold will tank soon and silver will tank harder than its been climbing… again

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        • tradercaddy

          Obviously gold could decline faster than silver and that would “fix” this ratio but as long as there aren’t equity waterfall declines like we had with it’s subsequent margin calls and liquidations silver should outperform. I base this opinion on the fact if the economy improves silver as an industrial metal should do well in this era of unlimited QE. And if the dollar finally starts to go down metals should accelerate to the upside.
          Plenty of “ifs”.

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          • metalleg

            Silver will go up more than gold in % terms because when the USD goes poof, which is already happening, more people will be able to afford silver relative to gold. There’s already a shortage of gold at COMEX and LBMA and huge delays with high premiums at most retail sellers. Game over soon.

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          • peaches

            USD has been on the verge of going “poof” since 1971.

            gold rises steadily, silver spikes and then all the poor people sell their eagles and the price comes back down.

            silver needs to triple to hit its 2010 high and gold is less than 15% away.

            gold is higher and the dollar is the king currency… go figure

            maybe PMs can double and the dollar can devalue itself slower than the rest of the fiat bunch thus maintaining some sort of relative strength without the book of revelations playing out?

            i mean its been 50 years right?

            a $100 FV of silver dimes is worth over $1000 and a $20 dollar gold coin is worth $1700

            but USD is still the currency of choice to keep under your mattress across the globe

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          • peaches

            TLDR

            the average american would still take a $100 dollar bill over a 1 oz gold coin anyday

            as long as you can buy Roku or Tesla stock and double your money inside of a year… our currency serves a purpose

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    • soonerxii

      Plus fuel is dirt cheap. Yoy comps should be crazy for these companies when the men’s all reopen

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  4. richardweiner

    My penis is cocky.

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    • peaches

      OYYYYY google search an image of auchwitz and beat off to it already before you explode all over your keyboard

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    • numbersgame

      Not as cocky as TSLA bulls

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      • alty

        What’s your take on the “excess deaths” measure as a guide to the truth?

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      • numbersgame

        If you mean

        COVID-19 deaths = “excess pneumonia/flu deaths” compared to the typical season, I think that’s fair.

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  5. matt_bear

    Rick Ross mode. Maybach music.

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  6. i_am_nemo

    Bought smallish positions in MSFT,V,TWLO a couple of weeks ago. If the futures act like these stocks did in after hours, the market will gap up another 500 or 600 points tomorrow. This is scary crazy.

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    • narcist

      Doubtful. I initiated a small Russell short position earlier and will keep selling overnight if futures balloon higher.

      That would actually be the most ideal case for a sharp reversal tomorrow.

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      • narcist

        Out of the Russell short sub-1334.

        Not a home run, but a solid double/triple.

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  7. edge

    I made 38 trades today. No wonder it seemed busy.
    Bought a shitload of puts and TVIX.
    Made decent money too, calls did very well. I sold about 1/4 of the calls.
    Nutty action. If things don’t go my way I’ll make a little but if this markets snaps, wow.

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  8. edge

    Opening the economy is a big deal to many I’m sure and an embarrassment on a Trump attempt to do that could be a shock.
    In my opinion Trump’s ordering of the meat workers back to work is the dumbest mistake he’s made so far.
    The Democrats have a gift. No ppe, no tests, no safety standards. Any Republican who stands with Trump on this will get trounced.

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    • edge

      I realize that “biggest mistake ever” covers a lot of territory but how in the hell is he going to defend that?
      Most of us expect him to be ineffective, now he’ll prove it beyond a doubt.

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    • metalleg

      Not hearing about mass illnesses at Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, with many visitors but the farms, with no visitors are having issues whereby they need to close?

      Get outta here with that shit.

      Trump knows what’s up.

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      • peaches

        yup hes gonna get a noble prize after this. smartest president ever

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  9. tjnyt

    There used to be a connection between the economy and the stock market, today that relation is only poetic. Like money, (electricity) markets have also evolved in the last 100 years.
    FED is the rainmaker, markets are the drain where this liquidity gravitates. Markets act as picker-upper of excess liquidity.

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  10. purdy

    “I’d actually argue that the game is less rigged these days than when Livermore was betting at the bucket shops.”

    Unfortunately, the above is the dumbest thing I’ve read today. The people who now run the place ..people who’s competitive corruption cause crashes ..can funnel $trillions to themselves using the Fed and the Treasury. The tools of the crooks have NEVER been as powerful and pleb-opaque as they have become over the past two decades.

    Bucket shop fleecings were petty crimes by comparison.

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    • peaches

      the entire NYSE was a bucket shop back then. and no SEC. shit was worse 100%

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      • purdy

        Companies were allowed to go bankrupt when they were incompetent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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      • narcist

        Coincidentally, SEC became Livermore’s biggest enemy and ultimately doomed him. His tricks were all preempted by Joe Kennedy (the biggest crook of them all).

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    • narcist

      I’d concede that my judgement may be biased because I’m doing quite fine (as in adapting alright) these days. (“Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.” – H. G. Wells)

      Also fine by me (and bless your heart) if it really is the dumbest thing you’ve read today. I’m just glad that I don’t have to deal with the problems that Livermore had to (e.g., getting fucked over because things as simple as limit orders did not exist in his early days).

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      • purdy

        The most compelling advice I’ve read in an investment book …advice that I’ve tried to follow is: “clean the plumbing twice every morning.”

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        • narcist

          Just don’t be compelled by advice.

          Among all the “investment” books I’ve read before, I really enjoyed Soros on Soros. I especially recommend the Bank of England episode as recollected first-hand by Soros.

          He and Buffett always will be remembered as the true legends.

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          • edge

            I’ve read several books on the subject but I can’t say that any of them did me that much good.
            Pragcap.com did a lot for my understanding of the economy…I started off just by reading the news, anything on politics & the economy and a bit later markets. I started off watching Louis Rukeyser on PBS! I realised in the late 90’s that trading was the better route if the time to do it could be found.
            So here I am.
            Fly’s right, the trick is to learn before you go broke. Some make it some don’t.

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          • narcist

            I miss Paul Kangas on PBS. I watched him often when I was little. He was a positive influence.

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          • edge

            I don’t remember Kangas. I was watching Rukeyser in the 70s. He had a big influence on me, value, buy & hold, analyzing financial statements. LOL. Now I mostly scalp & go for home runs…but all “investors” really need is some SPY shares IMO. Government bonds used to be important but I think they’re a mistake now.

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          • narcist

            I was 5 years old when I saw Kangas calmly explained what had just happened to the stock market on Black Monday 1987 (the biggest daily percentage drop ever in all of market history):

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pjSlIkNxXg

            I consider him the Edward Murrow of financial journalism.

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  11. purdy

    Stop picking on our gracious host. His manly taking of quick punishment when he bets wrong is a worthy example for all and alone is worth the price of a subscription. Also, by providing this forum, he is keeping richard home …and out of parks and playgrounds ..thereby protecting our children.

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    • edge

      You’re right. Maybe I’ll buy a tshirt.

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    • metalleg

      When I look among the cast of characters here at iBC, I see only one who wins even when he’s losing. The rest are losers.

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      • peaches

        “i took a look around and everyone here is totally not cool loser LAME”

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        • narcist

          The irony is particularly strong as the comment was left by an individual of very little substance even by iBC standards.

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    • Po Pimp

      Funny you mention that part about owning up when a bet goes wrong. I don’t see his DO trade listed above.

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  12. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Well it seems I was wrong on big tech. I thought at least one of AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, or FB would have a nasty miss. Ad revenues held up through the end of March better than I supposed and MSFT is apparently a tank.

    I guess we could still get AAPL to trip but would it even undercut the legs of this rally at this point?

    Guess I now have to wait more.

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    • purdy

      This, thus far, is a distributionist, counter-trend, S+P 2/3 retrace, short-seller punishment, rally …before we plunge to new lows. We are likely within a few days (or hours) of the near-term high.

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    • edge

      Yeah, I don’t know what to think about those. If the markets head lower those might hold up.
      I’m mostly picking on small caps via TNA.
      Weird day. I kept stuffing in puts until my calls started getting overloaded but my account went nicely green. Both sides of the trade got bought.
      There was a little more to it than that but IWM options really worked.

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  13. Dr. Fly

    LET ME SAY THIS SLOWLY FOR THE MORONS HERE ON THE SITE.

    I SOLD MY RETIREMENT AND QUANT NOT BECAUSE I WAS BEARISH, BUT BECAUSE I WANTED CONTROL OVER THE ACCOUNTS. DIRECT ACCESS. WHILE MY RETIREMENT IS STILL IN CASH, THE QUANT WAS IMMEDIATELY APPLIED TO MY TRADING ACCOUNT — WHICH IS UP 150% FOR THE YEAR.

    IF you do not believe my gains, come to Exodus and as the members.

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    • narcist

      Not worth the agony/anguish. Plenty of smaht people got too bearish too soon in 2006-2007 but carried on largely unscathed.

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  14. snoozemr

    could be bears best shot in a while this a.m. but apple reports after hours. i’m going to just watch the tape for a bit.

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  15. tjnyt

    This overnight, pre-market reversal is a signal for a change of direction.

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  16. edge

    I’m doing nothing. My account holdings are little changed from yesterday, is up today about what it was up yesterday.
    How lucky can you get. I’ll probably wait until tomorrow to do anything.

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