It looked like we were going lower — but now things are firming up. I would not say we’re out of the woods yet and all is clear, because the news is horrible. Another 3.8 million claims, bringing us to a grande total of 30 million LOST JOBS in a month. At this pace, we will have no jobs left at all inside of 6 months. There are no silver linings to speak of, aside from possible vaccines coming out by year end.
Consumer spending dropped by 7.5% last month — the most in 60 years. No big deal.
Everything is plunging, but that was YESTERDAYS NEWS. Now we’re reopening. Oh yes indeud. We are reopening and everyone can’t wait to PACK IN TIGHTLY into long lines at Macy’s and crowded amusement parks and airlines and train stations.
BRING YOUR KIDS TO DISNEY and enjoy the wonders of 2 hr lines to ride wondrous attractions and elbow into long BUFFETT STYLED food lines to feed your retarded family. I know what you’re thinking. These business models no longer work. Wall Street hasn’t figured it out yet, because it doesn’t have to. Everything now is fun and wondrous and nothing is real, so stocks get bid up. We’ll be in danger once the economy reopens and businesses do no recover because people have PTSD and prefer to stay HOLED UP at home watching Netflix.
As for me, I have several irons in the fire. I have several down stocks to deal with this morning and haven’t decided which way to go yet.
The Nasdaq was down 50 and now it’s up, so go figure.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
And when at Disney don’t forget the Giant Smoked Turkeyed Legs as you walk around in your checked Bermuda shorts with black socks and a fanny pack for your valuables.
I’m thinking about going into the turkey leg business and advertising my delicious and humongous legs on FB since I hear the price is more than fair these days.
Good plan but don’t forget to add emued, ostriched, and tofued (for the Seattle and Boulder crowds) legs. You could do a leg of the month home delivery plan just like Harry and Davids fruit of the month club.
Damn! Turkey leg futures are way up š Should have thought about this yesterday. Could have made a killing during the great pandemic meat crisis of 2020
You guys are talking turkey/disney. first buy a plane ticket. My AAL,DAL, LUV, UAL, BA all grounded. And I’m dreaming of a house in SF.
Those Turkey Legs from Disney are legendary indeud! They brine them like ham before they smokeāem is what Iām told is the secret, aside from the strict specs on the supplier.
Uliq Madiq over at the venerable firm of Koch & Balz says oil has bottomed.
His brother Suq Madiq says sell in May and go away.
You seem to be very close to all the Madiqs, especially Seeton and Eit.
Of course he is close: he is family. Seeton is his brother (Suq and Uliq’s father).
Unfortuantely, rw has no kids, and never will. His real name is Warz.
So it’s premature to draw conclusions, but watching Germany’s new case load against their active case load, they had almost 5% growth yesterday. Germany had this number down to around 2-3% which is how they got their growth factor below 1.0.
Now total active cases are only like 35K so maybe it’s noise and they get it down.
But if Germany has to reverse reopening at all, that is an example of a shock that could send this market rolling lower and not find a bottom for months.
The 35K active cases represent obviously a much larger passive unknown case load each country has.
But if known active cases starts higher, the medical community is going to start sweating again as we’re back to worrying about hospitalizations.
The big question for Depression vs V-shaped recovery (and in-between): will the stimulus check, the PPP, the bonus eumplyment be enough to maintain the economy?
The consumer is 70% of the economy. This report is from March, whne the shutdowsn were just beginiing. Of course, before reading too much int othis, a fair question is are consumer spendign less because they business are closed or bacause they have lower incomes?
Well the same report gives us the indication towards that second question: March Personal Incomes MoM was -2.0%. For perspective, this is the largest monthly decline in income ever that wasn’t precedeeded by a large spike up in the previous month (usually a Nov-Dec-Jan phenomenon).
Expect PCE to take an even bigger hit in April. However, PI will be the one to watch: there are a lot of positves (Congressional bills getttign fully implemented, stock market rising, etc.) vs a big negative (unemployment) that will be havign a tug-of-war.
Alright added more SPXS for $10.20. My position sizing is such that if there is a V-shaped recovery – and with it come job security, my 401K completely recovers, company stock is making new highs etcetera – then all is well and I lose a nasty sum that I chalk up to having been like a very expensive auto insurance policy (but for everything going on around me). But everything is fine.
And if everything is not fine, well… I will get a massive payout. Like a “if we hit my S&P 500 price targets then here’s a 350% payout” payout.
The payout ratio is 5:1 here, it’s just too cheap to not take the bet a little more.
Makes a lot of sense.
Also, I don’t want to get into politics too much, but now Biden has become even more tabloid than Trump recently.
The sexiual assaults accusation that he pinned a staffer against the wall and forcibly fingered her is not going way While it will alway be a he-said-she-said, the women’s brother, a co-worker, a friend, and a neighbor all corroborated that the women told them about the incident shortly after it happenned.
For perspective, Kavanaugh was accused of *attempting* sexual assault (before one of his buddies pulled him off). Predictably, Republcinas have turned to “believe the woman” while Democrats have done a similar 180Ā°.
It’s unsurprising that Gillibrand is showing her true stripes once again and comign to Biden’s defense, just like she did when one of her own staff was accused. It’s ironic that her short-lived Presidential campaign was all about riding me-too, but I guess its similar to all the closetted conservatives that rail against homosexuality..
It’s even less surprisng that Hillary has recently endorsed Biden.
However, I am surprised at Stacy Abrams: “I know Joe Biden and I think heās telling the truth and this did not happen.” Looks like someon is gunning hard for VP.
I think Democrats are playing this wrong. Accusing the woman of lying is fine for Republican voters, but doesn’t sit well with Democratic voters. The Dem Party’s best bet is a “we don’t really know waht happened, but we do know Trump is even worse for women.” (check the end of this link for waht this approach looks like).
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/495340-democrats-begin-to-confront-biden-allegations
Nah, I doubt Republicans believe this woman. She could have outed Biden at any point in the last 20+ years. What, vice presidential aspirations were just fine but President is too far?
But since it’s Biden – the cocksucker who ran a slander campaign against our Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and then supported the same against Kavanaugh – we’ll hoist him with his own petard. And since it’s Democrats, the damage to Biden with the woke ranks will be significant.
I’m not saying that Republicans actually DO believe the woman, but this is not relevant to politicians.
Supposedly, Biden has friends on both sides of the aisle. A true friend would defend Biden, but any prominent R’s sayign “I believe Biden”? I haven’t heard of any.
Also, “DC Court of Appeals is just fine but Supreme Court is too far?”
Market looks toppy. AMZN and AAPL better beat.
AMZN and AAPL earnigsn after the bell WIl be surprised if AAPL does well.
AMZN is a question mark. Undoubtedly, Revenue will do well, income could go either way (marginsa re low), but my gut tells me that guidance will be below expectations.
Shell cut their dividend for the first time in 80 years. It wasn’t a little chip either, but a whack of 66%. XOM and CVX report tomorrow mornign.
The nearer term silver lining is remdisivir. It is looking like approval is imminent and that 5 days of infusion was as good as 10 days. Importantly, the CEO has also said they are working on an inhaled formulation, which means people can do it at home. Approval of the inhaled formulation should go quickly if all goes well, and it should be available before a vaccine and very likely before end of year.
With Fauci’s support, no doubt remdisivir is as good as approved for “Emergency Coronavirus Treatment.”
Don’t forget that hydroxychlroquine was fast-tracked to the approved list as well, but how is that workign out for patients?
Data on mortality imporvement is mixed/inconlcusive
We will see. There is certainly more data on remdisivir at this point than hydrochloriquine. The side effect profile certainly looks better for remdisivir as well.
The availability of the drug is great for mortality and reopening strategies, but let’s be clear remdesivir involves a 5 night hospital stay and the drug itself costs ten thousand dollars.
With a standard CDHP plan you’re looking at $3,200 out of pocket just for the drug, and then the 5 night hospital stay comes along and you just hit your out of pocket maximum for the year.
Basically even after the drug, people are going to be very risk adverse about catching this disease.
I certainly hope so. But even now with no approved treatment, it seems many people are still not taking the virus seriously enough.
Unless the people who run the place are completely satisfied with Trump (which they may well be), they were always going to get rid of Biden. Sexual assault gets rid of him without them having to CV19 the old war mongering perv.
.
seems like they are both pussy grabbers and that could cancel out?
To surburban voters that want another excuse to vote with their wallet instead of their supposed morality, yes.