UPDATE: Gilead is walking back the markets jerk off festival in the AHs. Clearly, at this point it does not matter. Futures are already out of the bag and people have lost their fucking minds. I bought 4 mortgage stocks in the AHs session to join the parade.
IT DOESN'T MATTER. THE BALL IS ROLLING SON — +1,000 DOW PIECES HERE WE GO https://t.co/N99g2IMMXq
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 17, 2020
About an hour ago two major news events hit the tape.
1. Boeing is REOPENING their fucking plant to build great big beautiful airplanes.
2. Gilead might’ve found a cure for COVID-19
The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.
“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.
Granted, the sample size is small and two people did die — but it’s something. As such, futures are going wild and I am getting CLEANED hard in my inverse ETFs. The IWM is + 4.5% in the AHs, up more than usual because it was lower today. Almost everything is running hard, from PACKED CRUISELINERS to PACKED CASINOS to PACKED AIRPLANES. Everything. With this cure, we can all pack in tightly and sneeze into each other’s faces again without worrying about imminent death.
Oil is up, banks you name it. We’re going to have shit FLYING OFF THE HANDLE tomorrow, +20-30%. Nothing at all in the way of stopping us. Now I know what you’re thinking — “what the fuck will you do Fly, long those BASTARD inverse ETFs?” Remember, they’re 5% weighted positions. I will adapt and live to trade hard another day. Will I acquiesce and join the party? Of course. But I will NOT sell them in the AHs before everyone had a chance to review the data.
Will this mean SHARPLY higher prices forever?
We’re +0.5% on the QQQs YTD without an economy. Think about it.
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WA state is nowhere fucking near ready to open. At best the will have to hospital clean the plant every night and BoeingFAGS will be wearing masks.
Good news from GILD but I still see us having a summer of pain.
Sounds more legit than hydroxychloroquine.
Trump was hyping this one too.
He should. The scientific mechanism is sound.
USA USA!
Damn, TSLA gonna blow up shorts for the 2nd time this year.
Yes, but is remdesivir a vaccine?
Nope. Stop gap but might be a good one. No mention of when available.
That means the other drug contenders are going to push hard to release promising data about their own respective drug’s effectiveness. No need for a vaccine if a pill will do. GILD does look like a bargain though.
Hooray!!! Economy saved. ‘White Swan’ trademarked by i_am_nemo bitches.
Futures limit up
This action is very toppy if you ask me. Everyone leap frog ejaculating over one another to buy fucking travel companies in the after hours.
But what do I know? I’ve got a safety cushion in my shorts if this shit sticks. I suppose I will accept… but still find all this fishy AF
ES 2870. That’s quite a pop.
Futs up 1 1/2%. Tomorrow may be different, + or -.
Blow off tomorrow?
Hmmm… if we run higher then higher we go. No objection here I’ll sell my incerse ETFs and we’re back. But keep in mind the disease only has a less than 1% death rate anyway. Now these were really bad cases, like probably 50/50 survival cases. So this is promising. No control but that makes sense a control would be immoral in this case.
So this may greatly improve survivability for bad cases, but it doesn’t prevent hospitals from getting overrun and it’s not going to greatly speed up removing the lockdown.
And the lockdown is what is actually killing the economy, not 35,000 dead people.
I’ve been reading much about cardiovascular and pulmonary issues that don’t dissipate with recovery brought about by the virus.
it takes “indefinite” off the table…which is good enough for the market.
“It takes ‘indefinite’ off the table…”
It actually does not.
We have about 900,000 hospital beds not counting our emergency make shift efforts like temporary structures.
There were cases lasting 1-2 weeks hospitalized. This cure seems to reduce that to 3-5 days hospitalized. So major improvement in hospitalization and also getting beds free for the next person. This treatment can be used to help handle local situations by effectively expanding hospital throughput by 2-5x, which is awesome if it works out.
Prior to our isolation efforts, this virus was doubling every 3 days. Literally nothing that was just announced changes that. If we stop isolation and go back to that rate of spread we’ll still blow through our capacity.
So maybe we feel better about releasing the controls by a week or two. We’re still looking at the same timeline of mid to late May before we start opening anything up and then isolation controls in place deep into June or maybe July.
The only way I see this as a net boon is okay maybe people are less afraid for some reason. But most of us weren’t scared anyone. Not for ourselves anyway.
The market is reacting to a clinical cure administered intravenous in a hospital bed like it’s a vaccine.
We already had a cure with a 99% or better effective outcome. Just wait two weeks.
Why do you hate America?
You would think the suffering of millions was a small price to pay for him to make a couple grand.
Lol nobody else on this site appreciates your humor, Po Pimp.
there’s various BS about how long we should stay in shelter and shut down. May, June, July, all of 2020….it’s also turned into a political battle stance, that because so many people hate Trump, WHENEVER he announces the country to re-open will be the “wrong answer” to the media. A legit treatment, let alone a cure, gets rid of some of this craziness. Even if it’s a hard re-open in June that is still a plan, and the market loves a plan over uncertainty.
Consumer spending is going to be murdered.
The market seems to be reacting to a clinical cure – which is for people
Where’d the edit buttons go? Fat fingered post.
I was way ahead on this in terms of number of deaths and all the stats. I’ve got a model that is working. FLY is right we don’t open before probably mid May or June, AT THE EARLIEST. There is no escaping a SUMMER OF PAIN one way or another.
No one cares about your stupid model.
It’s not that kind of model.
i care about everybodys models mannnn
Your model? lol
As luck would have it I sold SOXL today and bought SOXS.
Bought TBT too. I don’t know about that one, but doesn’t seem very risky.
I’ve been long gold since the end of March. Just got out of it when it’s still well above 1700.
Affirmation of early Feb NEJM report on Remdesivir linked to right here at that time by, I think, the Nymph. Promising treatment? Not a cure.
For now, not dying is good enough.
jeez i’d hate to look at fly’s real time after hours account. carnage in the pelican room.
At least his retirement account is sitting safely in cash since the lows.
Does this news mean we can get our $6 trillion back?
Yes
China’s GDP numbers come out in a few hours. If they lie — which they of-fucking-course will — and it looks good, we’re lock limit up afterwards and ATHs tomorrow. The insanity is as contagious as the virus.
Fly- haven’t seen your portfolio miscalculated like this since the FOUR HORSEMEN episode. God speed tomorrow.
I actually bought some mortgage plays in AHs and I’m up sharply in them. All trade given in EXODUS in REAL TIME FAGGOTLORDS
Dump them at, say, 9:36 AM tomorrow.
Smells.
There might be a good technical set-up on the daily being baked for shorting this market as soon as Monday.
Nevermind. Gilead calls bs. Possibly an effective therapy but not proven.
But info on a real study at end of month.
So futs are even higher now. LOL. I smell a top.
Sources: FT, ZH
We are but puppets on a stage, Mr. Fly, dancing to the laughter of mad gods.
My longs were down (A,AAL,APA,BA,DAL,JPM,LVS,JWN,SLG,SPG,FCX,OXY,WFC,WYNN, my inverse were down(SOXS,SQQQ), total 14k down. Did not sell, after the close, they all are up big. Someone clearly knew something was coming
Hey, European countries are starting to end lockdown, why not look at their results instead of formulating your own personal models based upon an ever-changing multitude of info.