America lost more than 5 million jobs the past week, giving us a grande total of at least 22 million jobs lost. This does not include the millions of small business owners, sloths, and people with money who didn’t want to file a claim. We’ve now lost 10 years worth of jobs and Wall Street is snoozing agin, with the Dow barely down 200 and the Nasdaq ripping +80.
I get it. Liquidity and the future is so fucking bright. I’d be curmudgeon if I was to suggest the market was GRAVELY underestimating the severity of the economic collapse at hand and how the weak have inherited the earth and we’ve become a society filled with self-absorbed narcissists whose only desire is for a higher Nasdaq.
You hear the term “bending the curve” being thrown around — because less and less people are being admitted into hospitals. The death rate, for the time being, will remain very elevated — roughly 5% of patients admitted — which is insanely high. The idea is getting back to work by mid May to early June and every back to normal. But you know that’s not going to happen. We have a world filled with PTSD victims and consumer behavior has been permanently altered by this event. There will be no V shaped recovery because things cannot go back to the way it was.
Nevertheless, we’ll try and harken back to the halcyon days of Jan 2020 when everyone was rich and happy and leveraged to the hilt trading SAAS stocks.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
You nailed it, especially on the PTSD.
Fights in the stands will start due to a cough.
Someone touches their face in the subway – mayhem.
We’re gonna have more Karens and Chads go off the deep end.
More people will be left behind in the upcoming economy. Ten years ago, they came for lowest on the totem pole. Now they’re gunning for the lower middle – moms who worked at Cheesecake Factory or never left the movie theater. Man-bunned late twenty something musicians who worked the front desk at the Hilton. Bar owners who had a bit of business during or after the game. Community churches are gonna dwindle.
Commercial property is gonna be blasted cheap with all of the openings.
And the hated rally continues. Pretty crazy.
I’m not sure why you think this rally is hated. The same high-beta, high-PE stocks that drove us for 10 years are leadign the charge. That’s not screaming “wall of worry” to me, nor is the ultralow Put-to_Call ratio, back at pre-covid levels.
I think what is hated is the moral hazard created by the FED and Congress to a lesser degree because of the increasing wealth gap that it creates. The worse off you were before COVID-19, the worse off you are now most likely. Do you think that is good for our society (or even for oue economy) in the long term?
Agree on the PTSD. It takes 66 days on average for a new behavior to become automatic. Given the major money centers that drive our economy shut down first and will likely reopen last, we’re probably looking at about that long. Retail sales had the biggest drop since it’s been tracked – we are seeing a permanent shift in the economy. Winners will continue to run, losers will fade away. I think you buy QQQ and call it a day for the next decade or two.
I’ve tipped local musicians better during their online gigs than when I went to see them at the dives. My drinks are stiffer at home, and we still facetime friends during the show.
With bigger TV screens at home, movies the theaters are gonna go strictly visual. Lifetime-type movies, story-telling movies are going straight to Netflix.
I told Mrs Rabbit that in-law gatherings work perfectly on Zoom, even after Corona. She didn’t buy it.
Market will peak when we reach 100% unemployment. Until then just BTFD. This isn’t difficult.
Upon further reflection, there will be no dips so just go 300% long in AMZN, NVDA, MSFT and TSLA.
I think Fly’s scenario is more likely. For me, mostly straddles.
The money is good, no chance of getting killed.
Speaking of Kevin Spacey …re-watched 1/2 of “Margin Call” last night …up until they discovered, to their utter surprise, that they had been sell dog shit to investors seeking safety: “the kid nailed ..the formula is shit”. No crime ..just a bad equation.
“Who-coulda-known?”
Another good one is “The Big Short” …well crafted and funny. But it too postulated that it took an autistic mathy geek to see what the street had “missed”.
ot Autism did not exist prior to the 30’s.
Created in big pharma lab accidentally, oops.
That guy is telling us to open back up now.
Wouldn’t just buy Qs, focus on tech which enables treating your fellows as lepers.
Too difficult.
Its all bullish news because it means we can print more
A significant % of the jobs cut will never come back.
Commercial real estate demand may trend down
# of households will shrink
Schools – downsized. Why not learn from the smartest guy online instead of the well-meaning Bozo at your, local school?
Buy a house in a college town; let your kid use it for 4 years – I mean 7 years. Sell it for a profit when they graduate. No mas!
Making all this money in the market bores me.
The world central banks are collaborating. There is simply some lower economic/asset level they are not willing to breach.
Commercial real estate should be dead. Not many people fit in a restaurant with social distancing. How many people are going to go out to eat anyway. They are giving these loans to all kinds of businesses that are doomed to fail anyway. And they will keep on loaning them money that will never be paid back.
The money bosses clearly believe we can’t afford a crash.
I am no fan of sloppily run bailouts but if they’re right it’s worth a try. To bad we got here but too late to turn back.
Def some bulls and BTFDers on here today – preparing to have their heads removed from their bodies.
This unshakeable faith in tech stocks like AAPL or MSFT is bizarre to me. Sure they’re doing the best, but MSFT is heavily tied to the overall state of business (poor) and AAPL is heavily tied to novelty consumer electronics (worse).
If consumers are all going broke, losing their jobs, the lsst thing on their mind is “hey I should go pick up an $800+ plus of hardware for which I already have a suitable unit that’s only 24 months old. Will I pay cash or spike my phone bill?”
How are they going to buy an iPhone when they are saving up for a “$30,000” Tesla?
Forgot to mention earlier: pandemic virus fears should do wonders for TESLA’s autonomous taxi model.
Out here in the pen we call it the prettiest pig phenomenon.
I have more of an unshakeable faith in NFLX and AMZN
And yes, in the near term, everything may get shellacked again. But I’m not a trader, so I continue to accumulate shares of companies that will dominate the new economy.
The Fed is printing Trump Bucks like nobody’s business. If you don’t think some of those free dollars won’t find their way to Apple’s website then you vastly underestimate the stupidity of the American populace. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American populace, dotard out front should have told ya.
The market really is gambling that Tech has nothing to do with brick and mortars, or consumers, or state and local goverentmen budgets, or regualtory concerns (which is what took them down in 2018).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-100-surges-back-green-2020-small-caps-down-30
Interesting. Trump spouts powerplay with congress, Market goes up.
I have 5 different SP strikes. Two calls, 3 puts, and all have been green for a good part of the day.
And of course peeps still think it’s 2018.
Well, if I become ill and don’t survive, that’s it for me. If I survive the virus and maintain reasonable income, I will be fine unless USA turns into dangerous chaos. If I don’t maintain reasonable income, I will be stinking up my car, living in it somewhere, and probably die from hunger in a couple months. Jeez what a way to go.
How valuable is growth in a negative growth environment? I’d say a lot more valuable than under normal circumstances. Money will continue to chase any companies showing growth.