It’s all about bonds and the risk associated with the shutting down of businesses. Markets were down more than 1,100 today before “RALLYING OFF THE LOWS” to close -969. Yesterday we rallied through the roof and today it collapsed. What does it all fucking mean?
We are in a panic. The behavior of humans has changed drastically to the point that businesses are being greatly affected. Perhaps the travel stocks and the airlines and maybe even hotels are at a bottom — but maybe not. I’ve often thought about starting to buy the most down stocks in increments — as markets balance out and attempt to stabilize. But this isn’t stable. Trying to time it is ruinous to your PNL.
I did ok, getting fucked in my XAIR position. I did get a chance to average down in it on the collapse. I am holding a 4x sized position now. My other holdings are SOXS and FAZ — both sharply higher. I had three day trades.
(APT -1.5%)
INO +4.5%
IBIO – wash
In all, I am grateful for being smart enough to have 70% cash and hedges in place. I am saddened by my XAIR getting raped, but have confidence in the idea that it can rebound and I can exit in a most handsome manner.
My gut feeling is for lower prices, much, much lower prices.
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Nice call on XAIR Fly – might as well just have bought SeaWorld shares if I wanted to be down 14% lmao
What’s the general mood in Seattle? Are people spooked at all?
People are starting to get it. I caught the dumb girls I work with who were laughing me off last week feverishly cleaning the lab with sanitizer yesterday haha dumb bitches. Costco here is totally out of toilet paper. There was some ‘panic in the air’ last weekend but it has subsided. Workers are pissed they don’t have paid sick leave – which is one of the reasons I’m not eating out for a minute. Most people in the city are poor AF and can’t afford not to work though.
Basically there’s not much else for people to do but kinda take it up the ass. You get the sense some people just want to catch the damn virus already and get it over with.
Still not a ton of information so online there’s the pandemic FAGS vs the flu FAGS fighting it out. I know a couple of people who have the symptoms but they don’t test regular people – you basically have to be critical to get tested still
SOUNDS LIKE A SHITHOLE
I heard we sent over a viral load your way too
*YAWN* 60% of Americans never get a flu shot, but they are losing their shit over a flu variant. Got it. Fucking DumbFucks. Fight me in the Pelican Room if you want.
Do the math on the difference between a 2% death rate (COVID-19) and a 0.2% death rate.
Fuck it, I’ll do it for you.
CDC estimate of annual US flu infections:
9.3 – 49 Million/year
10-20 week long season
= 9300 – 98,000 Deaths **per week**
Of course, flu season usaully has a vaccine, as you noted, and COVID-19 won’t have one for year.
Who’s the DumbFuck?
4x positioning on a gamble? What happenned to cutting losses and the discipline that I’ve always been praising? Good luck, either way.
made a mistake
A lot of wealth is
d i s a p p e a r i n g
Ladies and gentlemen: Fucking A.
Have a caronas
Screw Karate Kid, what a troll. Fly, you keep up the good work! If all your picks hit, I’d be skeptical, I like when your wrong, reminds me your human.
Dear Fly: Is it black smoke time?
Worst news of the day: Jamie Dimon needed emergency heart surgery. He was probably perusing the OTC derivative book of JPM immediately prior to that.
How is that possibly the worst news of the day?
Dr. Fly thank you for your valiant efforts to help us Internet leeches navigate this. I think your spidey sense is spot on with retracting the bull horns a little bit to see what shakes out. To all you mint turds, I hope I am wrong but this could be a little more than your cognitive dissonance allows you to absorb. This virus has at least two strains. The mild one is the one all the cocksure fucks boast about being “not that bad”. The rough strain is the one that drops people in the street. Ten days ago no one gave a fuck or heard about this shit in Italy. Now they are pushing 4,000 documented cases and about 200 dead. (could be off by an order of magnitude, easy.) That’s a 5% mortality rate. Log off of Instagram long enough to Google “critical mass” and “tipping points” and learn something with your shitty brain. Because our fearless leaders suck, this could turn into some 911 type shit. The stuff where everyone is going to a funeral this weekend or knows someone going to a funeral this weekend. Sorry grandma is dead. Even survivors get to worry about kidney, heart or central nervous system damage. Just cause you have toilet paper and cans of tuna stashed in your garage, it will still suck when your nanny can’t show up because her bus line got cancelled or her kid doesn’t have school. My friends are already seeing training seminars, conventions and bar mitzvah’s getting cancelled. Everyone is going to feel some pain. Strap in and don’t go buying that boatload of out of the money AAPL calls just yet. Good lord I hope I am wrong.