My double down in GSX worked, so I sold the stock today into a fierce rally. Truthfully, I don’t know what the fuck is going on with this tape. Apple warned, but the Nasdaq is barely down. Global trade with China seems to be zero, yet virus related stocks smashed. During periods of disruption, when positioned chaotically, I like to clear the slate to start new. So I sold the following stocks.
GSX +9.3%
(GSX -7.1%)
(ROKU -9.4%)
(DQ -5.4%)
TAL +0.5%
(IQ -3.9%)
ZEN +4.2%
SE +4.7%
OKTA +1.2%
KRTX +4%
BL +4.1%
This raises my cash position to 55%. My only regret, recently, was selling SPCE at $18. SpaceFAGS bid that son of a bitch over $30 today. Since I was out of pocket late last week, I feel a little out of sorts. It’s funny how missing one or two days of trading does that to you. For most people who rarely if ever look at stocks — this shit must look like alien technology to them.
Nevertheless, I intend to reposition back into something, a narrative today or tomorrow. I just needed to clear out some stocks that grew stale first.
It’s also worth noting, I have some positions left on the books that are dubious at best, so those too might get chopped in the not too distant future.
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PMs
Treasury bonds
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y/charts?countrycode=bx
Gold looks good.
Looks like I was a day or so early in my NFLX prediction.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/01/23/wuhan-virus-just-begun/
I’ve been tempted to short this thing (of course). However, correctly predicting the cashflow (or lack thereof), has not been profitable for me, as irrationality rules the day. The NFLX chart has not show signs of weaknesses, either, so I’ve resisted. So now NFLX has made a new 17-month high and it is at another precipice.
If the market continues RotB, then NFLX will easily test $400 and possibly new ATH, but again therei is no long term value here: subs will grow, but profit will never catch up to the price. Ideally, some analyst will upgrade this soon (maybe Apple will buy the company @@) and it will hit $400 and then fall, setting up for a second failed attempt and real price discovery…
“Clearing Out the Weeds to Plant New Crops”
That’s my analogy. Anyway, don’t you mean “Casting out new nets”? Crops take time to make money (ie, your Quant fund)
I’d be a buyer of ROKU here Numbers you should pick some up
Revenue is great, but earnings are poor, so it means valuation becaomes difficult. Also, ROKU doesn’t seem to have the same fan base to support dot-com-level PEs as some other tech stocks.
I think it will test $120 at some point, probably this week.
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I’m also wating to see how two trends play out: the QQQ are completly ignoring any and all bad news. At the same time, as markets make ATHs, so are Treasury bonds. At some point, one of these trends will break. The direction will be likely be dependant on COVAD-19.
The experts are “hoping” that COVAD-19 won’t be contained, but the market is basically pricing in short-term (2020Q1) economic effect but no long terms effects. If sales move from shifitng to the future to evaporating all together, stocks wil get hit. As I’ve mentioned before, viruses don’t respond as well to opinions as stocks do.
Nor do viruses respond to optimistic politicians. Obvious case 1 is Chiina itself
Case 2 is a work in horrible progress: there were **542** infectiosn on the Diamond Pricness cruise ship, and hundreds of passengers are yet to receie test results. The governemetnal repsonse: take them off the ship, and put them **on planes**. Beyond stupid. The way a 2-week quarantine **should** be handled is that it shoud end 2 weeks after the **last** person in the group tests postive, not the **first**. If Jack tests negative, but remains quarantined with Jill who tests positive, then Jack should remain quarantiend.
Case 3 Crusie ship MS Westerdam. Hugs for everyone:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/17/world/asia/coronavirus-westerdam-cambodia-hun-sen.html
The political reaction (including WHO’s) is kind of like the mayor in JAWS, except this is real and a lot more people will die as a result.