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18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Epidemiologist Floored By Corona Virus Virility — Warns It Could Match Spanish Flu of 1918

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a double Phd epidemiologist from Harvard, achieved at youngest age ever at the University at 23, took to twitter to alarm people about the virility of the Wuhan virus.

His main concern is the virility of the virus, stating it’s 8x more contagious than SARs. Elsewhere on Twitter are numerous truck drivers, moron stockbrokers, and a slew of paralegals, and trash men who have become arm-chair scientists — disputing Dr. Eric’s assertions. Instead of concern, these newly minted scientists are telling people to “not worry about it” because “it’s more nothing.” There is even a FUCKHEAD Buzzzzzzfeed bloggers who is combing thru all Tweets that are allegedly disseminating false info about the virus in an attempt to claim moral superiority over then — because she is in possession of the truth — in spite of her 2.8GPA in liberal arts.

His credentials.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

He graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard

Now for his warnings.

UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:

2: “This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China…

3: “In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”.

4: Even the author of the new 2.6 report admits that we need to plan for chance that “CONTAINMENT OF THIS EPIDEMIC ISN’T POSSIBLE”. Hence I’m not being uniquely distressed about this — the public health concern is very real!!

5: The 2.6’s author agrees it’s super dangerous and could infect without symptoms: “An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns. Not all might be symptomatic.”

6: How long ago did the #coronoavirus emerge and start spreading? “the Adam (or Eve) virus from which all others are descended first appeared no earlier than Oct. 30, 2019, and no later than Nov. 29.” Basically 1.5-2.5 months of unconfined proliferation.

5) This coronavirus though, it’s R0 attack rate of 2.5 or 3.8 (still prelim) is super high. Much more people fly now than in 2003 SARS. While measles has higher R0, it has a vaccine ?. Nobody has immunity to this new virus. Good R0 explainer:

4) I have published a lot of studies, including in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, as someone who has worked in academia for years. And I have been a whistleblower against big pharma in JAMA. I have never ever posted about end of world stuff and don’t ever intend to.

14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks

Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying—I’m a scientist. This #coronavirus #WuhanCoronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict @WHO will declare emergency. Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst.

15) My response to some people who think I’m trying to stoke fear… I’m a Harvard trained scientist with a doctorate in epidemiology (and the youngest dual doctoral grad from Harvard SPH)

 

China expanded their quarantine to 10 cities, totaling 56 million people. They’re likely doing this to reduce the virility of the virus. President Xi, in a surprising statement called the situation ‘grave.’

Finally…

Full disclosure: I am a Merchant of Death, presently long the following virus related stocks: AHPI, LAKE, NNVC, APT, INO, VIR, ZLAB, NVAX, LLIT, CODX.

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5 comments

  1. Raul3

    Merchant of Death….gyarrrr

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  2. heckler

    How much of your portfolio is long flu Fly?

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  3. jbandy

    When did this site become ZeroHedge for Wuhan Virus? I appreciate Fly has made bets like a degenerate on vaccine stock pumps-and-dumps, but there are other interesting things going on too.

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  4. chuck bennett

    I can’t think of anything more interesting than what’s happening in China right now.

    Would you rather watch CNN or fox’s coverage of the senate clown show? Welcome to reality

    Regards

    Chuck Bennett

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