The V-Shaped Recovery Continues — Levels of Interest on Deck

I don’t think you appreciate how truly remarkable this rally has been — climbing viciously from the depths of the bear market in December of 2018. The breakout of the semis on Friday was an easy tell and yesterday’s action, now with some hindsight, was a big shakeout. Early going, futures are sharply higher and new highs looks all but a foregone conclusion.

Here are the levels of interest for me.

This is going to be the easiest part of the rally — the magnetic climb back to new highs. You know the market wants to do it. Are you man enough to stand in its way?

Simply put, I will be reallocating in full today, in order to capture that +2.5%-5% move left in the broader indices. I was thinking small cap — but I probably will mix it up and try my best to stay in stocks that correlate well to the broad indices.

This is the brand of lip service I enjoy most, just like white people being racist against white people and black people just sit back and say to themselves “damn those people are crazy.”

Here’s Jamie Dimon, CEO of America’s largest and most prominent bank telling people that poor people, mind you, have been left behind. This is a person who is literally part of the process of quarantining money away and out of the hands of poor people — responsible for low wage-cucking jobs and holds incredible away over US policy.

So now because Dimon is making sympathetic statements regarding the plight of poor people, said impoverished will then spare him the rope — should that day ever come?

I don’t think so.

Truth is, and this is a hard pill to swallow, poor people are poor, mostly, because they’re not smart. Sure, Uncle Joe is plenty street smart — but he doesn’t have old money being passed down to him and he wasn’t brought up with privilege, the best schools, even the best looks — because on a long enough time frame (wait for it) great looking women marry rich men who then produce good looking kids, athletic, and strong — smart and motivated. The recent college scandal, in a way, was good press for rich folks — because it made poor folks feel better about their plight — making them believe everything was rigged.

It’s all in the bloodline, stupid.

The truth is a much harder stone to ingest. They never had a chance, generational trauma and poverty casts a significant pall upon any bloodline. Money is rarely gotten with luck, and is most readily accumulated by people who have good habits, discipline in the manner of life — the way they spend and earn, and the modes of entertainment — the people around them feed into this machine that create an environment of success and this works almost in perpetuity until collapses occur.

I’d rather not delve into the politics of how this is happening, but merely stating why it does. Smart people evolve and adjust to their environment. Dumb people place themselves into danger and permit melancholy to manifest itself and ominously allow self-destructive habits to wreak havoc. In spite of what you might see on TMZ, the vast majority of alcoholism and drug addicts are ravaging poor neighborhoods today, irrespective of race.

So thank you very much Jamie Dimon for telling us poor people are being ‘left behind’, a condition that has been a dominant factor in the biggest pyramid scheme of all time — life.

I’m in a mood — glum, gloomy, and grizzled. I sold most of my stocks today and then markets propelled higher. Luckily, I was able to profit from all but one and I’m grateful for having been smart enough to profit in so many indecorous names. But I don’t like these fucking gambles anymore and have decided to buy what I hate most — the banks.

Clean breakout on GS is obvious and the XLF has been trending for two weeks now, so this is a Johnny Come Lately sort of trade. Knowing this and keenly aware of the risks inherent in buying into late cycle, late in the rally, hated names — I did so using 3 times the leverage. I did so buying FAS — zero fucks given — hoping to lose money on it.

I took a look in the mirror and didn’t like the odious visage staring back at me. I reflected upon my present portfolio and determined it was mostly shit. Plus, I went ahead and stopped out of my LABD at the precise moment markets began to tumble lower. This made me disgusted with myself and I immediately hated all of my positions. Ergo, I fucking sold them all — save one or two, maybe 3, or 4!

I was having so much fun too, trading in and out of biotech hand grenades, laughing, crying, frantically pressing “buy” and “sell” — booking grand profits in stocks most likely headed directly to zero. The question I asked myself was this: “do I want to own these stocks now?”

I’m sure markets will do fine and springboard higher from here, and everything I sold will bolt higher — leaving me in a greater dispirited state than I am now. Meanwhile, I’ll participate via my quant, but presently occupied dark and brooding — angered by admittedly ridiculous things that literally mean nothing to me at all — just a mood and a cloud. So fucking stupid.

Quick post here as I am busy partaking in high finance.

The oil complex isn’t an even playing field. Low cost producers gimp out everyone else on a continual basis, prime areas of Texas have led to bountiful gains in a number of producers for decades. Since the advent of horizontal fracking, a slew of new money wildcatters edge-Lorded their ways into the Dallas players circle, many of whom own properties in N. Dakota.

When oil was north of $100, there was a great big fucking boom in N. Dakota, with wages skyrocketing and lawlessness spreading rampantly like in the HBO show Deadwood. However since then the region has been in decline — because it is expensive to frack for oil. The sand, the water — all of that shit drives up the cost of production that makes it unprofitable or barely profitable to drill.

Now with WTI getting back to $60, which was the baseline case for oil for a long, long time now, I suspect many fracking projects will get the green light again — which I believe is starting to be reflected in the shares of EMES, SLCA, HCLP, FRAC, SLCA, CRR, PUMP and other fracking plays.

I haven’t bought any yet, but am thinking about it now.

Good morning miscreants.

It’s important for you to know that the market is going to hit new record highs. These highs will be built upon the broken backs of all the short sellers who’ve obstinately kept shorting the market as it spiraled higher. If you haven’t made any money in the market in recent month, it’s because you haven’t really tried and instead opted to be lazy with ideologue thinking. It’s very easy to only think one way, which is the preferred mode of living of most unintelligible people; but to adjust and to be pragmatic is to understand the essence of life.

Do you pretend to know what you’re doing most of the time, or do you really know? In other words, the market tricked you in since the beginning of the year because ‘it’s rigged’ and a ‘scam’, or maybe because you were too obnoxious and stubborn to adjust to a new uncomfortable reality?

I think you can learn a lot more from my changeable ways than anything else. It is often ridiculed by most of my trolls — people cavorting online with indecorous mannerism, critiquing the work of a space alien magician (SAM). But it’s this malleability that has permitted me to survive all these years, and to enjoy the innumerable bull market runs, as well as the bear, without so much as a blink of an eye.

I simply don’t care which direction stocks go — as long as they’re making me money.

Early going — Nasdaq futures are +15 and I’m seeing a number of small cap biotechs popping off again. My OKTA caught a Goldman upgrade and Deutsch Bank and Commerzbank might merge. Also, and I found this interesting, Wells Fargo is in talks to sell its retirement plan services division to Principal for $41 billion.

My corned beef is boiling heavily in a giant stainless steel pot, seasoned with a bottle of brown ale, mustard seeds, garlic and some salt. I prepared the cabbage separately — because only drunken fools boil cabbage for 5 hours with the meat.

The cabbage was seasoned lightly and dropped into a pot with a buttered beef broth, Guinness stout reduction. The potatoes are being boiled and soon after I will add the carrots — because they require less time to boil in order to meet their perfect texture.

Typically I have parties at House Fly, a few dozen people drinking and sloppily eating — cavorting if you will — but we didn’t feel up to it this year. It wasn’t melancholy, but a dispirited mood best quelled with peace and quiet.

Nevertheless, I still have the tunes of Ireland reverberating thought the house — most likely the last year living here. I’ve decided to say goodbye to NJ — and “fuck off” to their exorbitant state taxes. My destination isn’t etched in stone yet, but I’m leaning towards becoming a Southern Gentleman in the Raleigh area of North Carolina.

Everything ends, except bull markets of course.

Cheers and enjoy your whiskey impregnated day.

It’s clear to anyone with a brain inside of their thin skulls that the semis have broken out again on Friday, now up more than 20% for 2019. I imagine the index going higher by, let’s say, 150% for the year — making everyone rich and grand and gay.

Try to fucking stop it

Even though the Atlanta Fed thinks the economy grew at a rather paltry 0.2% for Q1, none of that shit matters. See pal, you’re over there in your bullshit threads, sitting in your bullshit chair, waiting for pain and misery, when in fact the only misery being absorbed is by yourself — because of that fucked up portfolio of yours stuck in the thickets of your harebrained thinking.

Life has a way of just working out and the ideas we once harbored, way back in December, aren’t relevant anymore. We’re all wealthy pipe smoking men again, even the women, and nothing can stop it.

On the curious topic of the CPI index — they said it only rose by 0.2% to an annual rate of 1.5%. Isn’t that funny? Here I am, scratching my head over my excessive cost of living and the government counters my reality with their meaningless CPI index, boasting practically zero inflation. Then I remembered social security and other government doles are predicated on the inflation index. The cost of living increases are based off this index. Ergo, they have a vested interest in lying though their teeth, in order to keep their expenses down.

Old and poor people get BTFO on a daily basis.

Do yourselves a favor and never get old, and most certainly poor. The worst combo a human being could have is both old and poor. You might as well grab a ski mask and rob a few banks if forced to live old and impoverished — under the yoke of the CPI index, which so miserably relegates people to a life of cantankerous miasma.

I’m going to clue you in on something that can change your pathetic lives forever.

Ready?

The voices in your head are probably wrong. The ideas you have are, more or less, the sum total of the nonsense you’ve been ingesting for information. Ergo, you’re most likely absorbing nonsense, especially if you’re unhappy. Since most people these days are malcontents, odds are you’re a bearshitting fool reading Zerohedge and negative fuckers all day on Twitter.

I am guilty as charged for being lured into the rhetoric, but I like to stir the pot and often ham it up for the sake of dramatic candor.

I’m in touch with reality enough to know the voices in my head and merely reflections of my insecurities, wishes and desires, not even remotely close to reality. What is real is what you can see and touch.

Is there a bear market out there now?

No.

Was there one in late December?

Yes.

I suppose you could’ve just bought and bought and bought, mindlessly drolling on throughout life without a care in the world — but what fun is that? We like to at least believe there is a modicum of control or variability in all this, no? Perhaps we can apply our artistic design into the investing process and come out the other end splendidly rich? It’s an awfully nice thought and it makes me feel good just writing it. But it’s probably a waste of time.

My quantitative methods, up 4% MTD, are way more efficient and conducive with building wealth, truly, than playing whack-a-mole with the market.

Markets go up 76% of the time, based on a 125 year history. The odds of your 20-30 year investment horizon going wrong are infinitesimal. Remember that the next time you find yourself thinking end of days is upon you. That’s hubris and golden aged thinking perverting itself into a form of cognitive dissonance that is secretly and quietly trying to kill you.

I sold HYRE 36% ago and I did a post about it — which some of you mocked because you didn’t see into the future like me. I tried to teach you my methods — but you didn’t heed my advice and now look at you.

I did myself a favor and bought HYRE now, 36% higher because there is zero resistance here — running on fucking jet fuel — on the precipice of a parabolic move higher.

Bet against me — see where it gets you.