iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,445 Blog Posts

POMP EET: U.S. – China Weeks Away From Trade Deal

This is what is going to happen.

You’re going to see futures lower on Monday and sell at the open. Then around 11am news will come out, the same news mind you, that Trump is really close to a deal with China. This news will spark a rally — you will chase said rally, and then we’ll fade into the bell. This circle of mistrust will continue and culminate until your brokerage accounts hit zero and you’re forced to divorce your wife, abandon your kids, and become a coal miner in the Congo.

While in the Congo, you’ll learn that the Trump administration finally etched out a deal, sending stocks soaring. You’ll fly back to the United States, reopen a brokerage account and go all in — only to immediately lose all of it after the Mueller report is leaked and it recommends the President be sent to an insane asylum.

“They are going to have to find a way to meet,” former U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky told CNBC’s Martin Soong on Saturday at the China Development Forum in Beijing.

While talks to resolve their differences are ongoing, China and the United States remain far apart, with a lack of progress on forced technology transfers and the actual implementation of any deal.

These stories are as old as time. It’s merely human behavior vapidly displayed in real time, affecting the pricing of equities. When intermingled with the emotions of traders, if not in sync, it is a lethal combination.

If you want to extricate yourselves from this tomfoolery — listen to me now. Take 75% of your money and designate it for long term capital appreciation. Do it not and you’ll be scratching rocks in the Congo before you know it.

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20 comments

  1. acehood

    Yeah but you’re generally doing 50-75% per annum in your trading account right? So to advocate 75% to a long term plodding approach means quite the opportunity cost.

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  2. bronze28

    would you not think that futures should be up because it takes impeachment off the table??

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  3. bronze28

    this inversion curve business… was everybody not aware of this on Wednesday when the Fed. news came out? and did it not reverse on Thursday when market realized alll this?? SO WHAT EXACTLY NEW NEWS CAME OUT ON FRIDAY TO MAKE MARKETS DROP SO MUCH??

    Nothing that I can see.

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    • edge

      I think it is starting to sink in that the world economy is weak, and governments are constrained in both monetary and fiscal policy.

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    • clock

      Spring is in the air, and those with
      means and market savvy
      (you know …..the ones that control the stock markets)
      will sojourn to the south of France.

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  4. edge

    Most folks should stay away from trading. It’s a fact.

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    • tradingnymph

      And from working in Coal Mines in the Congo, lol. I think they do mostly Thermal Coal and China is turning away ships with imported Thermal Coal. So that isn’t even good Job Security. Most People have no idea what is happening, how so serious ugly this bubble has become. China really doesn’t want a deal because they have to slow down their economy and if they can blame the USA for it by not making a deal it’s a win/win for them. I honestly believe if we all got on the Ark in 2012 the flood would have been over and we could be on steady ground. Instead this flood is going to drown so many, especially all the Baby Boomers and their retirement dreams.

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      • edge

        Your China theory has merit, although I think that they would rather lie and cheat their way into a deal…many retirement plans are in peril. Financial literacy is no longer optional, and no one wants a 70 year old coal miner.

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        • tradingnymph

          And Sadly, so many pros should be the first ones in those Financial Literacy Classes. There is so much to this game that so many miss…very few truly can follow all of the pieces.

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  5. trumpmeister

    Market will drop 400 pts min on Monday once investors and traders start reviewing the yield inversion business over the weekend, and adjust their computer algorithms from bullish to bearish mode.

    Fly will be caught with his pants down again.

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  6. clock

    …..”your brokerage accounts hit zero and you’re forced to divorce your wife, abandon your kids, and become a coal miner in the Congo.”

    a coal miner in the Congo????

    Not me Bro.!!

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  7. juice

    coal-mining in the Congo is the new goat-herding in Romania

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  8. flea

    Not convinced Friday was not simply a speed bump on the road to new all time highs.

    Fed will save at all costs including QE4, negative rates, and a broadening of asset class purchases. What’s to stop them????

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    • edge

      A whole new round of fat dividend checks is about to further bloat the coffers of the rich. And while a billionaire dominated economy sure does suck in many ways, those economies appear to be quite durable.

      The economy is in better shape than the markets but both are under pressure.
      A run to new highs is not out of the question but I don’t think that the bear is far away.

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  9. edge

    We are in the transition phase between bull and bear market. Typically these things are choppy AF. Not up and down, choppy. Almost too choppy for day trades. I like to lengthen my time horizon here. Leap puts, treasuries, gold miners. Wait for the market to come to you.
    I’ll do some very short duration trades also but this is a hard place to make money.

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  10. edge

    Going into Monday:
    1.4% DRV
    1.5% SPY Dec 2021p
    8% TMV
    9% NUGT
    5.5% FAZ
    After leverage it works out to about 80%. I was at 170% Friday morning, 90% of that was bullish.

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