Crash or Big Bounce Off the Bottom?

With WTI off by 6% today and oil stocks down just 1%, I energetically sold out of my ill placed GUSH position. It is a reckless position to own, given the fact no one seems to care. VIX still sub $20 means no one thinks this drop will stick.

However, in my experience, 6% drops in WTI is a forward looking indicator. Couple that with plunging rates, copper, and surging treasuries and Yen — you’d have to be fucking mad not to lighten up into the close.

I blew out of both GUSH and SILK — raising my cash position to 30%.

My largest position is LK, at 15% of my portfolio (max for me), catapulted higher by 9% today, rendering my day a profitable one. I’ve been long defensive stocks for a week or so too — heavily weighted in ED, TR, and DLR. I am impervious to market drawdowns — fucked face.

On the Quant side, I’ll be selling out of the May portfolio on Monday for a June mix of defensive value stocks, gold, and bonds. The SPY shed more than 6%, yet I made 1% — for 700bps of outperformance.

You can’t fuck with me, not now, not ever.

Top picks: NUGT, TR, DLR