We’re in a Period of Excess — But the Fires Will Come

Here is the entire front page of CNBC right now. These are the relevant stories of today. As a stupid trader, how does one benefit from all of this?

As traders, the only thing you need to monitor is the 10yr bond. Nothing more, nothing less.

We’re ticking higher again, north of 1.92%, up 3bps, because MUH the economy is strong and nothing can stop us. But it won’t be long until the whites in everyone’s eyes show and people are shocked into submission, as interest expenses soar, biting hard into operations — causing a panic amidst the leveraged loan community of like minded investors. You need to steel yourselves for this eventuality. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in all this abstract it is humans love a good drama, and often manifest one’s destiny towards it. You might be living high off the hog at one moment, destitute and homeless the next. It’s important to savor the good times and truly marinate yourselves in the oils of success when they are present.

When the SPY is +25% for the year, everyone is an expert. You get fat deli slobs throwing comments around lazily, and with haste — talking about SPY performance and software delays. When the truth is far more easier to comprehend. During periods of excess, men like me are blunt instruments — tools if you will — to improve performance. But you do not need me. I am merely a sounding board. Anyone could’ve made coin in 2019, even retarded chimps. But when the fires burn bright and very hot, I become indispensable, equal to an oxygen mask inside of a vacuum chamber. You will find yourselves lost and without an oar, as the sea swallows you whole and fucks you into the bottom of the ocean. Sea horses will gnaw at your faces and the jellyfish will electroshock your eyeballs until they are good and gone. Then you will see the benefit of befriending a Space Alien Magician (SAM), such as myself. The hubris of man, eventually, will lead to his complete destruction. At said time, I intend to oversee said collapse and profit handsomely from it.

Until then, trade with spirit and keep a calm disposition about yourselves, for these are the days of men, the time and the place when coin had been multiplied many times over — all thanks and praise to the Federal Reserve. Amen.