Opportunity Knocking or Danger Ahead for SAASFAGS?

Almost every dip in SAAS stocks have resulted in sharp rallies and monetary reward. Recently we’ve seen a sharp decline in the software sector, which is the most overvalued of all the tech sectors — due to high growth/margins business models. Every 5 years or so the sector gets upended and I’d be remiss to tell you that this VC fueled industry got fucked almost immediately after the We Work debacle.

YTD Returns for top cloud-humping stocks.

Truthfully, I don’t have any strong opinions here, especially since once upon a time in 2014 I had very strong opinions about buying the dip — only to get my fucking face blown off in the five fingers of the apocalypse. What I can tell you, without equivocation, the sector has never been more overvalued vs the tech sector.

Here’s the trick. You can buy anything you fucking want. Who’s gonna stop you? But if you buy SAAS now and your stocks fall 10% from the basis, you have lost the right to own them anymore. Sell it and move on. My hunch, if forced to offer one, is for more downside. The whole market is heaving and teetering on sloppily spilling over and slinking down the sewer drain.

Markets are teetering on the brink of disaster. October storms are just around the corner and BIDU is soon to be delisted and changed to BIDUQ.

The idea of Trump limiting US investment into China is patently absurd, on par with applying sanctions onto a terorrist state. What’s the end game here? War? This country loves created a crisis out of thin air, just to solve it later. Obviously, the art of the deal has fallen short, thus far, so Trump is increasing the pressure on Beijing to acquiesce.

Given the current political climate, I doubt they will. Ergo, prepare for broken elevator trading action next week.

Top ideas: Volatility, short China.

Market jumped more than 100 when the US-China trade war meeting was scheduled for October. We already knew this, but for some reason it was relevant today. Then, ALL OF A SUDDEN, Donnie Ukraine announced this:

*** WHITE HOUSE WEIGHING LIMITS ON U.S. PORTFOLIO FLOWS INTO CHINA ***

This means “fuck you BABA”, “fuck you Baidu.” It also means fuck off with your IPOs China — the American money isn’t yours anymore. If done, this is the deathblow to China and sure to fuck them hard.

Wait, there’s more. How about we de-list all of your fucking stocks?

BREAKING: Trump Officials Considering Delisting Chinese Companies from U.S. Stock Exchanges.

SCOOP on new pressure tactic in #tradewar from @jendeben @sdonnan

— Mike Dorning (@MikeDorning) September 27, 2019

Markets do not bottom on Fridays.

UPDATE: I sold DUST, purchased yesterday, for a one day profit of +8.5%.

Lots of things to digest, such as Presidential impeachment, fucked up trade deal rumors, woefully leaning and heavy indices — wrought with rookies from top to bottom, exploitive little fuckers in for the quick buck. If there was ever a time for massive downside October, it would be this year.

Friday approaches and the roaches are out. Time to stomp them out.

We all want society to burn, from the bottom up. All of the people caught in a house of fire, burnt crisp from the convexity of it all. But, to be honest, aside from the shit-show PTON IPO — this tape doesn’t look too bad. It’s your normal run of the mill sell off.

Old man stocks are running hot, so I sold out of my PG position for a 4.8% gain. I don’t have it in me to play the long game with these fucking old man stocks. It is tempting to buy utes and REITs, but fuck that. I own WEC from about a month ago and barely up.

I still have a 10% bearish position on this fucking market and a shit-load of cash. I suppose I’ll just wait around for something fun to happen and then POUNCE on something and really take action. Who knows? Anything can happen. Anyone can get shot.

I shouldn’t be upset because stocks are going higher again, but I am. I have this issue reconciling what I see and what I think is going to happen — and it vexes me. There are so many unnatural things transpiring in the market now and yet equity prices don’t seem to give a fuck. I remember not too long ago, the idea that China could slow down registered 10.0 shockwaves throughout markets, as investors cowered in fear that the global growth narrative would be upended. Now we purposely try to destroy the Chinese economy and it’s no big deal.

I remember when the Fed was held in high esteem and were viewed as the resource of last resort, the fuckers who came in and saved the day when the chips were down. Now we purposely try to destroy them and minimize their role as an active player in stabilizing markets. Equity prices just keep going higher, in spite of good news, indifferent, or bad.

Presidential impeachment?

No fucking problem. I got +200 on the Dow for that.

Oh, the economy is slowing.

No fucking problem, Joey. Let me jack the stock market higher by 450 for that.

One of your bellwethers missed earnings and cried on the conference call.

Fughetiboutit. I got 700 points on the Dow for that.

Alien invasion and NYC has been wiped off that map? Take it easy.

I got 923 points for you and your troubles.

This market is making people stupid.

UPDATE: More Repo fuckery.

I was having a good time, up until the moment my trading account went awry. I am now a LOSER of 8 of my last 10 trades — a losing streak unseen at House Fly in a long time. The losses are small, 4% here, 2% there — but they’re adding up. On top of that, I was long SOXS into today and could not sell it while it was up and now I am fucked, having sold it out for a loss.

Loss upon loss upon loss.

After the bell, my mechanic called me up to tell me bad news. My Benz repair will cost an astounding $10,000. This is, of course, good news for my stocks, since there seems to be a direct correlation between home maladies and mechanical failures and my stock winship.

For the day, I licked my wounds, bought a few stocks and fell down a defeated man — downtrodden and sullen from the beatings Mother Market has doled out so severely.

Will I recover?

Tune in tomorrow for the next chapter in this fucking melancholy saga.

I sold out of my last miner during yesterday’s trade, KL for a 6.7% gain. I was all out as of this morning, standing before you an incredibly smart and prescient man. See pal, that’s the type of person that I am — here one second and then POOF! — gone the next. I was bullish on gold and now I’m not. The trend is overdue some relaxation. Look at the King Dollar here, man spreading, showing the Euro who’s boss.

Gold is in the tank, lower by 2% and miners are down a lot more. Typically speaking, you want to get in gold on big down days. My only caveat is rates, which seem to want to bounce here. The 10yr is up a staggering 8bps. Who knows what the fuck is going on here? All I know is that markets are up on weak breadth, based off some idiotic notion that Trump is, once again, on the cusp of a Chinese trade deal. You and I both know that is a lie.

Betting against upward surging stocks has been a fool’s errand. We all know it’s bullshit, but our thoughts and prayers continuously go unanswered in this heathenistic America. We hope for collapse, but continually get MOAR gains. How annoying.

My dreams of a crashing Dow have come to an end, unfortunately, thanks to Donald Trump and another trade war victory against China.

Stocks hit session highs after Trump says China deal could happen sooner than some think https://t.co/9JaVe0SoCV pic.twitter.com/DU8osV5mtg

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) September 25, 2019

One could argue that believing in such rhetoric for the thousandth time is beyond silly, even fucking stupid. But it is what it is, isn’t it? Stocks are begging for a reason to jimmy higher. A Chinese trade deal is just around the bend, trust in Trump.

The Dow shot higher and is now +150. My opinions of whether these gains can stick are not conducive with your world views, so I’ll reserve them for later.

Morning gents, Jungle.

I woke up this morning wondering about market crashes and what it might take to see to it we get our fair share. This is America, after all. We do everything big.

Back in 2008, we had a pussy decline of 75% from the top. People were out in the streets, heads split open from the old diverooni off the rooftop — amid bank failures and margin calls that made people’s eyes bleed. Almost everyone I polled for this article believes we should double those losses the next crash, something akin to the tulip mania popping and all of those fucking morons stuck with flower bulbs that price of your house.

The Federal Reserve has been firmly in control of markets and nothing really stands in their way, until now! We have a wondrous President who shits on the Fed almost every day. Perhaps Powell might say one morning “enough is enough with this shit” and resign. That might help push this ball over the hill and down into the sewers.

For the immediate term, we need bond yields to continue lower. This confuses the fuck out of people and makes them nervous. See bond yields only drop when shit is hitting the fan. The fact that yields are flat today is a bad sign for fellow bear-shitters.

Oil. We need that to careen lower. No more impromptu drone attacks on Saudi oil fields. That shit cannot be tolerated anymore. We need oil to cascade lower, because it’ll make people believe China is fucked — which is true anyway.

China. We need them to stop jimmy-rigging their numbers, so we can see the carnage taking place in their economy. Once we see that, we can rout their currency and then spread rumors of ‘capital flight’ followed up with some choice Kyle Bass tweets.

Gold. Pomp eet. The higher it goes the more fucked Powell is and it really helps the doomers feel rich, which will crescendo into the public square with arrogant loud mouthed pricks offering doomsday predictions for the global economy, buttressed by an air of success emanating from the gold mines of Canada.

I have about a dozen more of these golden nuggets — but find it halfway retarded to blog about since futures are flat and no one seems to care about risk or the idea stocks could trade lower for more than 2 or 3 days in a row.