iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,909 Blog Posts

Positioning For the Wins to Come

I am still in the process of assembling my chess pieces into place, trying a little of this and a little of that. I booked these trades today.

DDOG +1.83%
KSS +2.11%
OKTA +3%
(AUY -7.1%)
KL +2.5%

My gold sales had little to do with my opinion of gold, but more of a tactical move. Before I head back into stocks with vigor, I will first raise some cash and offer a more selective brand of stock picking.

Markets are somewhat weak and rates are lower. Gold isn’t too bad either, nor are bonds.

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8 comments

  1. ericbakerbruce

    I’m sorry, could you be a little more vague?

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  2. og

    Roku baby!

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    • numbersgame

      Just curious: do you have a target price to take profit, or a target to cut losses?

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      • og

        Just riding the momo right now in trading account since post earnings. I’ve been taking half off at end of day and re-buying depending on how it looks in the morning. No real PT.

        Forgot IRAs had $140 sell order and those got sold yesterday. I think more than enough time to short once pull back starts. Play both ways. Good luck!

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        • numbersgame

          The momo is pretty amazing, considering there is no news except earnigns recovery. However, after going up 50% in the short amount of time since I recommended buying it, the valuation is just not there. The earnings was going to be a sell-the-news at that point, but now it is up again – 25% in 1 week. Again, on **no news**.

          It’s a matter of “when”, not “if,” but of course I may be early again, but you don’t get many opportunities like this.with a rapid rise plus techncail resistance level +overvaluation. That’s 3 strieks against, 1 for (momentum).

          Then you have the macro picture: market ATH based on a non-existant trade deal and the VIX in the 12s, while bonds and gold are pushing higher: mixed bag that means slow drift higher or panic-plunge.

          Good luck to you, too.

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          • og

            I think it was just Disney and momo. Analysts were caught off guard. Look at how Disney moved on that 10 million sub #. Credit Suisse had to double their year end sub forecast.

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  3. numbersgame

    For stocsk with high PEs, most analysts just try to guess where the price will be and then just make up qualitative BS (“Strong growth”) with no revenue or eranigsn estimates beyonf the next quarter.

    Credit Suisse is differnet. They use actual math and equations and come up with a *quantative* esteimte. Ofccourse, it is equally BS, becuase it is filled with assumption.They were wrong on NFLX for at least 8 staright quarters and then i stopped reading them. They just kept projecting huge profits 2-3 yeasr out, and then just moved the goalposts farther as NFLX kept missing them.

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  4. numbersgame

    Credit Suisse are Donald Trump level “geniuses”.

    NFLX equity research
    July 2016 Free Cash Flow estmates ($Mill)
    2018: 1640.9
    2019: 3874.3
    2020: 5944.5
    2021: 8004.3
    Total: $194,650

    July 2018 Free Cash Flow estmates ($Mill)
    2018: (3262)
    2019: (2739)
    2020: (829)
    2021: 1215
    Total: $ -5615.

    Dropped their estimate by $200 Billion over 4 years (and quadrupled their share price target. Even in 2016, I was saying that NFLX’s problem is not custoerms, but actaul profit and cash flow. The only thing that has changed is that now they have a lot more competition.

    Here’s another example of a Credit Suisse “analyst” who’s work should be used “for entertainment purposes only.”
    https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2017/10/12/ultimate-lotto-ticket-everyone-hmny/#comment-537464

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