iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,904 Blog Posts

BEWARE OF MORE NOTHING

While markets are smoking cocks on the hopes that Trump could somehow figure out a way to strike a deal with China, the likelihood of that happening is next to zero. There is significant headline risk in this tape now. However, and this goes without saying, I don’t fucking know what to do with that information.

Day 1: +2%

Day 2: -2%

Day 3: +2%

You’d have to posses a Joker like mentality to trade this fucking tape, or be stubborn to the point of only one way. Traders are getting eaten up and beat the fuck out, rightly so.

I sold FRAN for a +14.6% gain, a much needed profit following a spate of poorly executed trades. I am leaning towards fading this rally.

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26 comments

  1. ferd

    You’ll be up about 200% per year at that pace.

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  2. numbersgame

    This tape is tainted. I see the influence of no-commison-trades. Strong early moves by Wall Street to draw them in, then BAM!, down comes the axe.

    In other news, here is the latest analyst input on my white whale:

    Monness Crespi Hardt, $440 -> $340, Buy
    Evercore, $380 -> $300, Buy
    Goldman Sachs, $420 -> $360, Buy
    UBS, $420 -> $370, Buy

    Are these bullish or bearish? I think it’s Wall Street’s version of CYA, because they have no f***ing clue either. However, the clear message is to short any strong rallies, so if it gaps up after earnigns, I’ll be fading like a ghost.

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  3. omfgitsjd

    This may sound a little naive, but I wonder how the brokerages are going to make money.

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    • fxtradepro

      Funds on deposit collect interest. Of which the house keeps. Don’t kid yourself sport, the absence of commission will be missed. I suppose this will answer the age old question….are commissions really the difference in whether your account banks or loses coin….of course not.

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    • omfgitsjd

      Thanks fx, There have been a lot of changes to the post 1930’s and 2008 financial system safeguards over the years, including today. I’m not sure if there is a paradigm shift underway. No doubt the brokerage stockholders got a taste.

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    • firehorsecaper

      Likely by them selling the order flow data to Citadel et al. A good read “Flash Boys” or the recent movie “The Hummingbird Project”.

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  4. it is showtime

    The Nothing a mysterious and dark parasite. The sole intention,
    of running the magical universe into extinction, by
    consuming its very existence.
    When you attempt to glance at The nothing your eyes sting,
    your brain is unable to reconcile the forms it brings.
    It is an unknown entity behind it.
    But a villainous entity.
    A frightening,
    dark,
    engulfing,
    energy.
    “No. This was, the Nothing… And it got bigger…. and bigger………. and bigger….”

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    • ericbakerbruce

      Ring ring ring
      “Hello showtime it’s me JP Sartre”
      “Hey JP whatcha doing”
      “Nothing”
      “Me too”
      “Life is boring”
      “Not if you’re an existentialist living in a transcendental world”
      “Emily Dickinson was hot”
      “So was Sylvia Plath”

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  5. soupbone

    Trump has no choice but make a deal with China. Let’s see what he gets.

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    • MSGT HARTMAN

      What do we have to gain from a deal with China?

      Stolen IP
      Cheap goods that break within a year
      Slave labor camps using underage children (Apple)

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      • moosh

        Always liked the idea of having a place in one of the ghost cities built in early 2000’s there to still be able to swing over to

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    • omfgitsjd

      I agree some kind of agreement is in order, but I’m sure Vlad disagrees.

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      • ferd

        Likely you’re being sarcastic ..as there is no excuse for any sentient American to still believe the MSM Russian conspiracy hoax.

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  6. WrongView

    Don’t need an excuse when we have the facts and evidence.

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  7. numbersgame

    Markets think trade deal is done. I checked CHina to see thei persepective. Not much there today: https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3032588/donald-trumps-white-house-meeting-chinas-top-trade-negotiator

    However, one thing that was odd is that the brief article (7 sentences) stated this:
    “Unlike Trump’s previous meetings with the Chinese delegation, this time Liu does not carry the title of special envoy for President Xi Jinping.”

    Why bother mentioning that? I guees this mean that nothing can be signed without Xi. However, that seemed obvious anyway, just like the fact that US ambassadors or even Cabinet officials no longer speak for the US as Trump often contradicts them.

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    • numbersgame

      Or maybe it is just a Chinese move to show that they now control things, since our US President is personally meeting with someone who is now well below the rank of Ambassador.

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  8. ferd

    Silver (and to a lesser extent gold) holding up pretty well in light of the carnage in bonds. How temporary this separation? Hmmm?

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  9. ferd

    What lovely symmetry. Bonds came down to daily uptrend and are bouncing …and /ES met resistance exactly where it should have and it retreating. And yes comrade sk, I have profited from those moves.

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  10. numbersgame

    In terms of deals, there is always room for a status-quo/insignifcnat Chian/US deal. However, I don’t undersatnd the latest optimism for a soft-Brexit. There doesn’t seem to be any middle-ground to be ahd. Here are the requirements:

    1) (Brexiters): immigration must be completely under British rules/control; no open borders. This was #1 reason behind Brexit
    2) (Northern Ireland/Ireland): no hard (controlled) border on the Irish island
    3) (UK/Great Britain island): Northern Ireland to remain part of UK

    On immigration:
    1) If Northern Ireland (NI) does not have border controls, then refugees could enter England through NI.
    2) If NI does have border control checkpoints, then NI will be very unhappy, which could imperil the the Good Friday peace agreement

    If NI stays in the EU Customs Union, then any goods mvement between England and NI either:
    1) would have to be treated as EU imports (which would further isolate NI from Engalnd)
    2) would not be treated as EU imports, in which case UK trades deals could be effecively bypassed by moving goods through NI first.

    Imagine if California (NI) abided by NAFTA rules but Texas didn’t. Or if Trump said that California would be allowed to create it’s own immigration policy.

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    • ferd

      Perhaps new polls indicating that Johnson will be out as PM if he doesn’t get a deal has changed the calculus.

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